A case study of the improvement of soil moisture initialization in IAP-PSSCA   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

GUO Weidong  WANG Huijun 《大气科学进展》2003,20(5):845-848

A prediction system is employed to investigate the potential use of a soil moisture initialization scheme in seasonal precipitation prediction through a case study of severe floods in 1998. The results show that driving the model with reasonable initial soil moisture distribution is helpful for precipitation prediction,and the initialization scheme is easy to use in operational prediction.  相似文献   

中国强震动观测展望   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：14  

李山有  金星  刘启方  孔戈 《地震工程与工程振动》2003,23(2):1-7

强震动观测是震灾预防与地震应急的重要基础。本在系统总结强震动观测的国际现状与发展趋势的基础上,结合我国的防震减灾实际需要和经济实力,提出了我国未来十年强震动观测的发展规划。  相似文献   

Comparing palaeolimnological and instrumental evidence of climate change for remote mountain lakes over the last 200 years   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

Richard W. Battarbee  John-Arvid Grytnes  Roy Thompson  Peter G. Appleby  Jordi Catalan  Atte Korhola  H.J.B. Birks  Einar Heegaard  Andrea Lami 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,28(1):161-179

This paper compares the palaeolimnological evidence for climate change over the last 200 years with instrumental climate data for the same period at seven European remote mountain lakes. The sites are Øvre Neådalsvatn (Norway), Saanajärvi (Finland), Gossenköllesee (Austria), Hagelseewli (Switzerland), Jezero v Ledvici (Slovenia), Estany Redó (Spain, Pyrenees), and Niné Terianske Pleso (Slovakia). We used multiple regression analysis to transfer homogenised lowland air temperature records to each of the sites, and these reconstructions were validated using data from on-site automatic weather stations. These data showed that mean annual temperature has varied over the last 200 years at each site by between 1 and 2 °C, typical of the high frequency variability found throughout the Holocene, and appropriate, therefore, to test the sensitivity of the various proxy methods used. Sediment cores from each site were radiometrically dated using ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs and ²⁴¹Am and analysed for loss-on-ignition, C, N, S, pigments, diatoms, chrysophytes, Cladocera and chironomids. Comparisons between the proxy data and the instrumental data were based on linear regression analysis with the proxy data treated as response variables and the instrumental data (after smoothing using LOESS regressions) as predictor variables. The results showed few clear or consistent patterns with generally low or very low r² values. Highest values were found when the data were compared after smoothing using a broad span, indicating that some of the proxy data were capturing climate variability but only at a relatively coarse time resolution. Probable reasons for the weak performance of the methods used include inaccurate dating, especially for earlier time periods, the influence of confounding forcing factors at some sites e.g., air pollution, earthquakes, and the insensitivity of some methods to low amplitude climate forcing. Nevertheless, there were trends in some proxy records at a number of sites that had a relatively unambiguous correspondence with the instrumental climate records. These included organic matter and associated variables (C and N) and planktonic diatom assemblages at the majority of sites and chrysophytes and chironomids at a few sites. Overall for longer term studies of the Holocene, these results indicate the need to be cautious in the interpretation of proxy records, the importance of proxy method validation, the continuing need to use reinforcing multi-proxy approaches, and the need for careful site and method selection.  相似文献   

Influence of vegetation change on watershed hydrology: implications for paleoclimatic interpretation of lacustrine δ18O records     

Michael F. Rosenmeier  David A. Hodell  Mark Brenner  Jason H. Curtis  Jonathan B. Martin  Flavio S. Anselmetti  Daniel Ariztegui  Thomas P. Guilderson 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,27(1):117-131

Stratigraphic shifts in the oxygen isotopic (¹⁸O) and trace element (Mg and Sr) composition of biogenic carbonate from tropical lake sediment cores are often interpreted as a proxy record of the changing relation between evaporation and precipitation (E/P). Holocene ¹⁸O and Mg and Sr records from Lakes Salpetén and Petén Itzá, Guatemala were apparently affected by drainage basin vegetation changes that influenced watershed hydrology, thereby confounding paleoclimatic interpretations. Oxygen isotope values and trace element concentrations in the two lowland lakes were greatest between ~ 9000 and 6800 ¹⁴C-yr BP, suggesting relatively high E/P, but pollen data indicate moist conditions and extensive forest cover in the early Holocene. The discrepancy between pollen- and geochemically-inferred climate conditions may be reconciled if the high early Holocene ¹⁸O and trace element values were controlled principally by low surface runoff and groundwater flow to the lake, rather than high E/P. Dense forest cover in the early Holocene would have increased evapotranspiration and soil moisture storage, thereby reducing delivery of meteoric water to the lakes. Carbonate ¹⁸O and Mg and Sr decreased between 7200 and 3500 ¹⁴C-yr BP in Lake Salpetén and between 6800 and 5000 ¹⁴C-yr BP in Lake Petén Itzá. This decline coincided with palynologically documented forest loss that may have led to increased surface and groundwater flow to the lakes. In Lake Salpetén, minimum ¹⁸O values (i.e., high lake levels) occurred between 3500 and 1800 ¹⁴C-yr BP. Relatively high lake levels were confirmed by ¹⁴C-dated aquatic gastropods from subaerial soil profiles ~ 1.0–7.5 m above present lake stage. High lake levels were a consequence of lower E/P and/or greater surface runoff and groundwater inflow caused by human-induced deforestation.  相似文献   

华北地区水循环与水资源安全:问题与挑战   总被引：47，自引：6，他引：41  

夏军 《地理科学进展》2002,21(6):517-526

华北缺水及其日趋严重的生态环境变化是中国首要解决的问题之一。目前,由于山区与平原径流明显减少和过量开发水资源,造成了地下水漏斗加深、平原区河道干涸、湖泊湿地萎缩、地表和地下水污染等生态环境恶化问题,严重影响到华北地区水资源安全,已引起党和国家的高度重视。本文以海河流域为重点对象,通过国内外学科前沿进展综述,指出华北地区缺水及其导致的生态环境恶化问题背后的自然和人文因素作用与发展演化的背景,强调高强度人类活动作用下的水循环基础研究的重要性,提出华北地区水资源安全的水循环基础与应用问题研究的若干建议与思考。研究自然和人类活动双重作用下的华北地区水循环过程,水体运动与污染物质输移及其与生态环境演变耦合机制,阐明华北地区"河道断流,水体污染,湿地消失,地下水枯竭"的成因规律,特别是人类活动的驱动分量,提出生态环境修复的理论基础,不仅对变化环境下流域水环境演变的地学基础科学前沿研究有重大的学术价值,而且对中国可持续发展和社会进步具有重要的战略意义。  相似文献   

嘉陵江流域水保治理前后沿程水沙变化研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

马炼  张明波  郭海晋  沈燕舟 《水文》2002,22(1):27-31

嘉陵江为长江上游重要支流,是长江三峡水库重要的洪水和泥沙来源地。20世纪50年代初至80年代末,多年平均径流量701亿m3,多年平均悬移质输沙量近1.4亿t;“长治”工程的实施,对控制流域水土流失起到了较为明显的积极作用。以流域内主要控制站大量的实测水文气象资料为依据,重点研究了全流域水保治理前后的水沙变化情况及规律。  相似文献   

南方典型山区土地利用变化GPS野外测量方法--以攀枝花仁和区为例   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

范海生  陈秀万  李京  马蔼乃 《山地学报》2000,18(4):353-359

在ＧＰＳ空间信息技术综合应用于山区土地资源动态示范研究背景下,总结山地ＧＰＳ野外测量方法和经验。山地ＧＰＳ测量作业的主要问题是如何在保证测量数据质量的前提下提高工作效率、减少工作强度。ＧＰＳ测量数据已成为国土资源动态监测和管理领域的新型数据源。  相似文献   

水文循环的生物圈方面(BAHC计划)研究进展   总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9  

高彦春  王长耀 《地理科学进展》2000,19(2):97-103

在对国际地圈生物圈计划 (IGBP)的核心项目“水文循环的生物圈方面 (BAHC)”的基本目标和具体研究内容阐述的基础上 ,对 BAHC计划的国际、国内研究进展进行了详细介绍 ,并结合当前 BAHC计划的研究动态 ,对未来的 BAHC研究新的主题和内容进行了探讨。  相似文献   

地闪连续电流特征的统计分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

张翠华  张义军  张广庶  王才伟 《高原气象》2000,19(3):371-378

利用高时间分辨的闪电电场变化资料,统计分析了我国甘肃和广东地区闪连续电流特征。结果表明：在甘肃中川地区１０３产次地闪中,带有连续电流的地闪有４９．５％,连续电流的平均持续时间为８８．９ｍｓ;在广东地区的９８次地闪中有连续电流的地闪占５２％,连续电流的平均持续时间为１５８．２ｍｓ。在这两个地区,带有连续电流最多的是有２次或３次回击的地闪,连续电流的持续时间与产生它的回击和前一回击之间的时间间隔△Ｔ呈  相似文献   

甘肃河东年降水量的周期变化   总被引：33，自引：13，他引：20  

李栋梁  谢金南  王蕾  白虎志  刘德祥 《高原气象》2000,19(3):295-303

利用甘肃河东建站最早的９个代表站的年降水量资料,采用谐波分析和小波分析方法,计算了年降水量序列各种时间尺度的周期,以及１０ａ和２０ａ相空间时间序列的２～１０ａ周期试验;陇南无明显周期;陇南无明显周期。相空间序列的周期试验显示,甘肃中部的准３ａ周期主要反映在５０～７０年代,近２０～３０ａ则以８～９ａ周期较为明显;陇东近１０ａ主要表现为准２ａ振荡。进一步的分析表明,甘肃中部年降水量的准３ａ周期振荡目处  相似文献