Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality     

XU Jianming  XU Xiangde  LIU Yu  DING Guoan  CHEN Huailiang  HU Jiangkai  ZHANG Jianchun  WU Hao  LI Weiliang  HE Jinhai  YANG Yuanqin  WANG Jiahe 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(Z2)

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".  相似文献   

Application of Characteristics of Seismogenic Structures in the Determination of Parameter of Potential Seismic Source Areas     

Zhou Bengang 《中国地震研究》2005,19(4):430-441

INTRODUCTIONThe method of probabilistic seismic risk analysis was proposed by Cornell in1968(Cornell,1968).After more than30years development,it has become the main method for seismic riskassessment of engineering sites and seismic zonation,and has been u…  相似文献   

Coda-derived source spectra, moment magnitudes and energy-moment scaling in the western Alps     

P. Morasca  K. Mayeda  L. Malagnini  William R. Walter 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,160(1):263-275

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Full moment tensor retrieval for two earthquake swarms at the Alps–Dinarides junction     

S. Kravanja  G. F. Panza 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,160(2):683-694

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Comment on 'On sensitivity kernels for 'wave-equation' transmission tomography' by de Hoop and van der Hilst     

F. A. Dahlen  Guust Nolet 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,163(3):949-951

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Two-dimensional ground motion at a soft viscoelastic layer/hard substratum site in response to SH cylindrical seismic waves radiated by deep and shallow line sources—II. Numerical results     

Jean-Philippe Groby  Armand Wirgin 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,163(1):192-224

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Determining risk sources and strategies among farmers of contrasting risk awareness: A case study for Cukurova region of Turkey     

H. Akcaoz  B. Ozkan   《Journal of Arid Environments》2005,62(4):661-675

In this paper, the results of a survey conducted in the Cukurova region of Turkey are presented. The aim of this research is to identify groups of farmers who differ in their risk sources and risk management strategies. The respondents to the survey were divided into three risk attitude groups, risk averse, risk seeking and risk neutral. Factor analysis has been conducted on information obtained from 112 farmers in 2000. From the findings of the research, risk sources were labelled as environmental, price, catastrophe, input costs, production and technological, political, finance, personal, marketing, health and social security. The dimensions of risk strategies were named as diversification, off-farm income, marketing, planning, financing and security.  相似文献   

川西坳陷南段天然气来源与碳同位素地球化学研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

樊然学  周洪忠  蔡开平 《地球学报》2005,26(2):157-162

川西坳陷南段是四川盆地主要的天然气产区之一。前人对该区天然气的来源有多种见解。为了更清楚地认识此地区天然气的来源与运移，本文分析了平落坝、大兴西和白马庙气田16件天然气样品的C1-C4烃及CO2组份的碳同位素组成。所获得的同位素数据结合化学成份和地质资料表明，3个气田的烃类完全是热解成因的，都来源于气田下面的上三叠统烃源岩。这些气田的甲、乙烷碳同位素组成随深度呈不同规律的变化，这些变化归因于烃源岩生烃的热解过程和烃类运移的动力学过程。平落坝气田中侏罗统气藏的烃类大部份形成于烃源岩低成熟和成熟的早期阶段并受到晚期成熟气体的不断补给。平落坝和大兴西气田多数气藏的烃类被认为是从源区垂直向上运移通过上伏地层而进入气藏的，白马庙气田的烃类被认为是沿断裂通道向上侏罗统气藏聚集的。平落坝和大兴西气田的δ^13Cco2值有很宽的分布范围(-10.7‰～-0.7‰)，这表明气田的CO2由来自基底的海洋碳酸盐岩无机碳成份和沉积地层的有机碳成份混合而成。这些气田的[He／CH4]-[N2／CH4]值之间和δ^13Cco2-δ^13Cc1值之间的相关性表明，非烃气体在进入气藏前已同烃类很好地混合，并被CH4为主流相的气流携带着向气藏运移。  相似文献   

“探宝号”船可变阵列震源的实现及应用     

赵庆献王立明  杨蜀冀罗文造 《南海地质研究》2005,(1):92-100

2001年，广州海洋地质调查局对“探宝号”船原有震源更新升级为阵列可变的BOLT震源系统。随着更新改造工程的成功，该船已成为具备承担高分辨率、常规、低频深水油气地震勘探的多功能地震调查船。本文介绍了地震勘探震源的基本工作原理以及三种阵列的分布、波形、频谱等特性。  相似文献   

兰州市2001年沙尘气溶胶质量浓度的特征分析   总被引：11，自引：14，他引：11  

权建农  奚晓霞  王鑫  李杰  张镭 《中国沙漠》2005,25(1):93-97

 分析了2001年沙尘暴期间兰州与靠近沙尘源区的武威的沙尘浓度和粒径分布特征,并运用对数正态分布规律拟合了沙尘粒径的分布。通过对比武威、皋兰和兰州沙尘暴期间沙尘浓度的变化以及武威与兰州的沙尘粒径分布特征,揭示了河西走廊沙漠对兰州市沙尘暴的影响。  相似文献