Hydrological variations on the Central Tibetan Plateau since the Last Glacial Maximum and their teleconnection to inter‐regional and hemispheric climate variations          下载免费PDF全文

THOMAS KASPER  TORSTEN HABERZETTL  JUNBO WANG  GERHARD DAUT  STEFAN DOBERSCHÜtz  LIPING ZHU  ROLAND MÄUSBACHER 《第四纪科学杂志》2015,30(1):70-78

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A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Revisiting the abandoned shorelines of Lake George,Australia: a refined optical dating framework     

N. R. Jankowski  T. J. Cohen  J. Larsen  A. Larsen  J.-H. May 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(6):1052-1072

Abandoned shorelines are an important archive used to constrain past fluctuations in the hydrological balance of lakes around the globe. Within Australia, the shorelines preserved at Lake George, NSW, form one of the few shoreline archives in the south-east of the continent that record palaeoenvironmental conditions throughout the late Quaternary. Here, we examined and tested the lake-level record for Lake George constructed in the 1970s by dating a well-preserved shoreline sequence at Luckdale, on the lake's eastern shore, using single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. Ten stratigraphic units were identified, and these suggest a late Quaternary highstand for Lake George in MIS 3, with fluctuations superimposed upon an overall drying trend throughout MIS 2 and into the present. At Luckdale, the highest four shoreline-associated units were deposited ~13 to 19 m above lake base and date to between 39 ± 2 and 29 ± 1 ka ago. Our study pushes back the timing of maximum lake depth at Lake George to at least MIS 3, rather than MIS 2. The overall drying trend is supported by similar reductions in both Riverine Plain fluvial activity and other associated lake-level records from within the Murray basin.  相似文献   

An algebraic solution of maximum likelihood function in case of Gaussian mixture distribution     

J. L. Awange  B. Palancz  R. Lewis  T. Lovas  B. Heck  Y. Fukuda 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,63(2):193-203

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An Overview of Paleo-AO/NAO Studies     

Liang Wengui  Wen Xinyu 《地球科学进展》2016,31(11):1137-1150

The discovery of decadal variability of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the introduction of Arctic oscillation (AO) concept have initiated a series of paleo-AO/NAO related studies since the mid-to-late 1990s. The progress and new findings of paleo-AO/NAO works after that time were comprehensively reviewed. The new results from the observations and modelings at four key timescales were summarized in detail: ①the reconstructions of the AO/NAO annual index over the past millennium; ②the debate on AO/NAO’s trend since early Holocene; ③the weakening of AO/NAO’s amplitude during the Last Glacial Maximum; and ④the anomalous positive phase of AO/NAO during the Last Interglacial. In addition, the possible mechanism for different timescales of AO/NAO is also summarized. Furthermore, the distinction between AO/NAO’ was mean state and amplitude, which were not explicitly separated in previous studies, were comprehensively discussed. Considering the current uncertainties related to paleo-AO/NAO studies, we encourage the community to search for more proxies having longer-than-10,000-year length with annual resolution around AO/NAO highly correlated regions. Another, we encourage long-term transient modeling on AO/NAO can be performed in order to improve our understanding of the dynamics and interaction between AO/NAO’s high-frequency variability and the climatological background, so as to further improve AO/NAO’s predictability on global warming context.  相似文献   

RS & GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping of the Balason River basin,Darjeeling Himalaya,using logistic regression (LR) model     

Subrata Mondal  Sujit Mandal 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(1):29-44

The present study deals with the preparation of a landslide susceptibility map of the Balason River basin, Darjeeling Himalaya, using a logistic regression model based on Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing. The landslide inventory map was prepared with a total of 295 landslide locations extracted from various satellite images and intensive field survey. Topographical maps, satellite images, geological, geomorphological, soil, rainfall and seismic data were collected, processed and constructed into a spatial database in a GIS environment. The chosen landslide-conditioning factors were altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, slope curvature, geology, geomorphology, soil, land use/land cover, normalised differential vegetation index, drainage density, lineament number density, distance from lineament, distance to drainage, stream power index, topographic wetted index, rainfall and peak ground acceleration. The produced landslide susceptibility map satisfied the decision rules and ?2 Log likelihood, Cox &; Snell R-Square and Nagelkerke R-Square values proved that all the independent variables were statistically significant. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the prediction accuracy of the landslide probability map was 96.10%. The proposed LR method can be used in other hazard/disaster studies and decision-making.  相似文献   

雅鲁藏布江流域极端降水模拟及预估     

高佳佳  杜军 《冰川冻土》2021,43(2):580-588

为了解雅鲁藏布江流域汛期极端降水的变化规律,推算一定重现期的极端降水量分位数,通过百分位法、Hill图法、年交叉率法选取阈值,借助广义帕累托分布函数（GPD）对流域极端降水频率进行了分析。结果表明：99百分位时的阈值为流域内各站点的最佳阈值,且各站点超阈值序列通过了M-K的平稳性检验,无明显突变。拟合效果通过K-S检验,各站点拟合的极端降水理论频数和实测频数基本相符。尺度参数的大值区位于流域下游,表明该地区的极值波动大;形状参数正值区位于流域中上游地区,说明发生破纪录降水事件的概率较大,拟合结果与实际观测一致。从5年一遇和10年一遇的极端降水值来看,雅江流域除拉孜站外,其他地区降水极值均超过30 mm,日喀则地区的降水极值达50 mm;各地区20年一遇和30年一遇的降水极值增长的非常缓慢。通过与实际极端降水值对比分析得出,GPD拟合计算出的重现期水平基本符合实际,即具有一定的合理性。  相似文献   

Current-induced scour beneath initially elevated subsea pipelines     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

When a subsea pipeline is laid on an uneven seabed, certain sections may have an initial elevation with respect to the far-field seabed, e_o, and thus potentially affecting the on-bottom stability of the pipeline. This paper focuses on quantifying the effects of the upstream dimensionless seabed shear stress, θ_∞, and Reynolds number, Re, on: (1) the maximum dimensionless seabed shear stress beneath the pipe, θ_max, to be compared to the critical shear stress in order to determine whether scour would occur and progress towards an equilibrium state; and, (2) the dimensionless equilibrium scour depth beneath the pipe, S_eq/D. Using a 2-D Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach along with the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model, a parametric study involving 243 computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations was conducted. The simulation results were used to develop a closed-form equation for the prediction of θ_max. Subsequently, experimental measurements of S_eq/D have been compiled from published literature, to develop a new closed-form equation for the prediction of S_eq/D with a high correlation to the experimental data. In summary, we present two closed-form equations for the prediction of θ_max and S_eq/D for pipelines with an initial e_o/D, which are applicable for both clear-water and live-bed conditions. The effects of θ_∞ and Re have been included, albeit Re having a small influence as compared to the other parameters.  相似文献   

长江口盐度梯度下不同形态碳的分布、来源与混合行为   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

叶君  姚鹏  徐亚宏  王金鹏  赵彬 《海洋学报》2019,41(4):15-26

河口碳的生物地球化学过程是全球碳循环的重要组成。通过测定溶解无机碳（DIC）及其稳定同位素丰度（δ13C_DIC）,溶解有机碳（DOC）,有色溶解有机物（CDOM）,颗粒有机碳（POC）及其稳定同位素丰度（δ13C_POC）与元素比值（N/C）及相关指标,研究了2014年7月长江口盐度梯度下不同形态碳的分布、来源和混合行为。结果表明,DIC浓度、DOC浓度、POC含量分别为1 583.2~1 739.6 μmol/L,128.4~369.4 μmol/L和51.2~530.8 μmol/L,这些不同形态碳及CDOM的荧光组分的分布模式相似,均是从口内到口外,整体呈现先增大后减小的趋势,并与盐度呈现非保守混合行为。添加作用主要发生在在口门处最大浑浊带附近。与含量相反,从口内到口外,δ13C_DIC和δ13C_POC均呈现逐渐减小再增大的趋势,在口门附近达到最低值,分别为-9.7‰和-26.7‰。在口门附近不同形态碳含量上升及δ13C_DIC、δ13C_POC的降低可能主要与沉积物再悬浮及微生物作用有关。基于蒙特卡洛模拟的三端元混合模型的结果显示,河口内外POC来源变化明显,口内POC以陆源有机碳贡献为主,平均为62.3%,口外海源贡献逐渐增加。CDOM相关参数结果表明长江口CDOM主要来自陆源输入,海源及人类活动等也对其产生影响。  相似文献   

海上风电升压站平台高程确定标准的合理性研究          下载免费PDF全文

潘晓春 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(6):83-88

为保证海上风电升压电站建设的经济合理与安全可靠,合理确定海上风电升压电站平台高程十分必要。文中从波浪与潮位的遭遇组合、最大波高取值与现行相关标准的比较、最大波峰高度计算的合理性等方面,全面分析了确定海上风电升压站平台高程各组成项取值标准的合理性,研究认为现行标准明显偏高。建议海上升压站平台底部高程按"100年一遇极端高水位+重现期50年波列累积频率1%的最大波峰高度+安全超高"确定。结合工程实例计算分析,按本文建议可使海上升压站平台高程明显降低,从而节省工程造价,还可减轻升压站工程对周边风机的遮蔽影响,以达到多发电量的效果。  相似文献