Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty     

Simone Barani  Daniele Spallarossa  Paolo Bazzurro  Claudio Eva   《Tectonophysics》2007,435(1-4):13-35

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.  相似文献   

Source parameters of intermediate-depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes from empirical Green's functions modeling     

Adrien Oth  Friedemann Wenzel  Mircea Radulian 《Tectonophysics》2007,438(1-4):33-56

Several source parameters (source dimensions, slip, particle velocity, static and dynamic stress drop) are determined for the moderate-size October 27th, 2004 (M_W = 5.8), and the large August 30th, 1986 (M_W = 7.1) and March 4th, 1977 (M_W = 7.4) Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes. For this purpose, the empirical Green's functions method of Irikura [e.g. Irikura, K. (1983). Semi-Empirical Estimation of Strong Ground Motions during Large Earthquakes. Bull. Dis. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., 33, Part 2, No. 298, 63–104., Irikura, K. (1986). Prediction of strong acceleration motions using empirical Green's function, in Proceedings of the 7th Japan earthquake engineering symposium, 151–156., Irikura, K. (1999). Techniques for the simulation of strong ground motion and deterministic seismic hazard analysis, in Proceedings of the advanced study course seismotectonic and microzonation techniques in earthquake engineering: integrated training in earthquake risk reduction practices, Kefallinia, 453–554.] is used to generate synthetic time series from recordings of smaller events (with 4 ≤ M_W ≤ 5) in order to estimate several parameters characterizing the so-called strong motion generation area, which is defined as an extended area with homogeneous slip and rise time and, for crustal earthquakes, corresponds to an asperity of about 100 bar stress release [Miyake, H., T. Iwata and K. Irikura (2003). Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation: Kinematic heterogeneous source model and strong motion generation area. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 2531–2545.] The parameters are obtained by acceleration envelope and displacement waveform inversion for the 2004 and 1986 events and MSK intensity pattern inversion for the 1977 event using a genetic algorithm. The strong motion recordings of the analyzed Vrancea earthquakes as well as the MSK intensity pattern of the 1977 earthquake can be well reproduced using relatively small strong motion generation areas, which corresponds to small asperities with high stress drops (300–1200 bar) and high particle velocities (3–5 m/s). These results imply a very efficient high-frequency radiation, which has to be taken into account for strong ground motion prediction, and indicate that the intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are inherently different from crustal events.  相似文献   

The earthquake foci and deep structure of the Earth’s crust and upper mantle along the southern Sakhalin-Sea of Okhotsk-Kamchatka profile     

T. K. Zlobin  D. A. Safonov  L. M. Zlobina 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2007,1(3):240-248

The Kuril-Kamchatka seismofocal zone was thought to be a single plate approximately 90 km wide and dipping to a depth of 700 km at an angle of 40°–45°. This concept reflects primarily the physical differences (elastic wave velocities, density, temperature, etc.) between the seismofocal zone and the mantle hosting it. Detailed investigations show that the seismofocal zone proper is also heterogeneous with earthquake hypocenters variably concentrated and clustered within this zone, where both seismogenic and aseismic strata, as well as subvertical zones, can be identified. The latter are reflected in the structure and faults of the Earth’s crust and upper mantle.  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of the 1918 Puerto Rico Tsunami   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mercado  A.  McCann  W. 《Natural Hazards》1998,18(1):57-76

The Caribbean Sea region is well known for its hurricanes, and less known for tsunamis. As part of its responsibilities in hazard assessment and mitigation, the U.S.A. Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the Puerto Rico Civil Defense, funded a pilot study to perform a numerical simulation of the 1918 Puerto Rico tsunami, one of the most deadly in the region. As part of the study a review has been made of the tectonic and tsunamigenic environment around Puerto Rico, the fault parameters for the 1918 event have been estimated, and a numerical simulation has been done using a tsunami propagation and runup model obtained through the Tsunami Inundation Modeling for Exchange (TIME) program. Model results have been compared with the observed runup values all along the west coast of Puerto Rico.  相似文献   

Inversion of source process and related studies of the Taiwan Strait earthquake using genetic algorithm     

Hai-Jun Wang  Bang-Hui Lin  Shi-An Chen  Yi-Shan Lin 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,11(2):141-152

Applying genetic algorithm to inversion of seismic moment tensor solution and using the data of P waveform from digital network and initial motion directions of P waves of Taiwan network stations, we studied the moment tensor solutions and focal parameters of the earthquake of M=7.3 on 16 September of 1994 in Taiwan Strait and other four quakes of M _L≥5.8 in the near region (21°–26°N, 115°–120°E). Among the five earthquakes, the quake of M=7.3 on September 16, 1994 in Taiwan Strait is the strongest one in the southeastern coast area since Nan’ao earthquake of M=7.3 in 1918. The results show that moment tensor solution of M=7.3 earthquake is mainly double-couple component, and is normal fault whose fault plane is near NW. The strike of the fault plane resembles that of the distributive bands of earthquakes before the main event and fracture pattern shown by aftershocks. The tension stress axis of focal mechanism is about horizontal, near in NE strike, the compressive stress axis is approximately vertical, near in NWW strike. It seems that this quake is controlled by the force of Philippine plate’s pressing Eurasian plate in NW direction. But from the viewpoint of P axis of near vertical and T axis of near horizontal, it is a normal fault of strong tensibility. There are relatively big difference between focal mechanism solution of this quake and those of the four other strong quakes. The complexity of source mechanism solution of these quakes represents the complexity of the process of the strait earthquake sequences. Contribution No. 98A01001, Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau, China. The subject is supported and helped by Academician Yun-Tai CHEN, Profs. Qing-Yao HONG, Zhen-Xing YAO, Tian-Yu ZHENG, Yao-Lin SHI, Ji-An XU, Bo-Shou HUANG and colleague Mei-Jian AN, Xue-Reng DING, Rui-Feng LIU. De-Chong ZHANG and Ming Li provided the digital data warm-heartedly. Lin-Ying WANG offered us the catalogue of earthquakes in southeastern coastal area in China. Xi-Li WANG and Tong-Xia BAI provided us the issued annual reports data. The authors would like to express their gratitude to all of these people. This paper is sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Scientific and Technological Commission of Shantou, Guangdong Province.  相似文献   

Relationship between faults and generation of inland shallow earthquakes: enlightenment of the M=7.2 southern Hyogo prefecture earthquake     

Toru Ouchi  Qing-Hua Huang 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,11(4):413-420

The M=7.2 southern Hyogo prefecture earthquake, which occurred on January 17, 1995, destroyed the region severely. Further researches are necessary to explain the problems obtained from this earthquake. We have discussed some characteristics correlating with this earthquake, such as distribution of aftershocks and disaster, relationship between fault and generation of inland shallow earthquakes, strong motion and so on. The tectonic movements of surface faults may be different from those of deep faults. Earthquakes may not be restricted directly by the tectonic movements of surface faults. The strong motion zone is often appeared in the region a little away from the both ends or from the single side of a fault instead of the region of a focal fault. Some mechanisms of strong motion have also been discussed.  相似文献   

Fractal analysis applied to faults and earthquakes——A case study of China     

王建  朱晓华  徐永辉 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,(3)

Ｆｒａｃｔａｌａｎａｌｙｓｉｓａｐｐｌｉｅｄｔｏｆａｕｌｔｓａｎｄｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ———ＡｃａｓｅｓｔｕｄｙｏｆＣｈｉｎａＪＩＡＮＷＡＮＧ（王建）ＸＩＡＯＨＵＡＺＨＵ（朱晓华）ＹＯＮＧＨＵＩＸＵ（徐永辉）ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＧｅｏｇ...  相似文献   

Delineation of Potential Seismic Source Regions of Moderately Strong Earthquakes Without Seismogenic Tectonics     

Hu Yinlei  Zhang YumingDepartment of Civil  Structural Engineering  The University of Hong Kong  Hong Kong Institute of Geology  State Seismological Bureau  Beijing    China 《中国地震研究》1998,(2)

In this paper,approaches are developed to delineate the potential seismic source regions of moderately strong earthquakes that do not have clear seismotectonic settings.Based on comprehensive analysis of regional tectonic backgrounds and seismicity,the data,such as isoseisrnals,spatial distribution of after shocks,regional tectonic stress field,and focal mechanisms,are employed for the delineation of the potential seismic source regions.The reliability of such potential seismic source regions is also discussed.  相似文献   

用历史类比法对中国强震活动的概率预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈立军  周霞 《福建地震》1998,(1)

本文将20世纪全球强震活动划分为7个活动期,以国内中强以上地震同期活动资料进行比较,对未来国内强震活动趋势作出中期的统计概率预测,似乎可以作为一个较为有力的判据。  相似文献   

Magnitude scale structure from filtered broadbandP-wave records     

A. Roglinov  J. Horálek  A. Plešinger  J. Vaněk 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1978,117(4):816-826

A series of Hokkaido events, recorded by the FBV Broadband Seismograph System at the KHC Seismic Station, is used to study the structure of the earthquake magnitude scale on the basis of maximum velocity amplitudesA _vmax of teleseismicPwaves in different period bands. Amplitude-periodband (APB) diagrams are constructed for each event. According to the shape of the APB diagrams the events investigated can be divided into three types: (a) events with largestA _vmax values in the intermediate period range (periods ofA _vmax from 2.2 to 23 sec), (b) events with largestA _vmax values in the short-period range (periods ofA _vmax from 1 to 2 sec), (c) events exhibiting anomalous APB diagrams. Type (a) events seem to represent the process of wave generation that prevails for shallow earthquakes. Type (b) events approach to explosive-like generation of seismic waves. The nature of the exceptionally occurring type (c) events must be clarified in further investigations. The influence of the type of earthquake on the magnitude values estimated on the basis of standard class A and B (short-period and intermediate-band) seismograms is demonstrated. It appears that for estimating correct values of earthquake magnitudes complementary information on the process of seismic wave generation in the focus is necessary. At teleseismic distances this information can be obtained from either APB diagrams or amplitude spectra ofP waves recorded, e.g., by broadband velocity sensing instruments.  相似文献