考虑优势流作用的降雨入渗边坡可靠度分析     

姚云琦  曾润强  马建花  孟祥沛  王鸿  张宗林  孟兴民 《岩土力学》2022,43(8):2305-2316

降雨诱发滑坡是世界上最普遍的地质灾害,而关于降雨入渗对边坡的可靠度分析,优势入渗的影响被长期忽视。使用Comsol Multiphysics对降雨条件下优势入渗做数值求解,利用无限边坡模型计算边坡安全系数;并应用改进Cholesky分解法生成空间相关随机场,使用蒙特卡洛方法分析降雨过程中边坡的可靠度。结合确定性与可靠度计算对比均质入渗与优势入渗在降雨过程中边坡安全性变化：（1）降雨强度较低时,优势入渗安全性较好,而降雨强度较高时,均质入渗更稳定;（2）均质入渗中参数空间变异性是边坡失稳破坏的关键因素,而优势入渗的边坡失稳则由湿润峰快速推进所导致;（3）针对优势入渗模型研究,发现基质域与优势域水力交换强度较大时边坡有更大概率失稳,而较小的水力交换强度可能影响边坡底部的失稳破坏。  相似文献   

Importance sampling based algorithm for efficient reliability analysis of axially loaded piles     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2015

In reliability analysis, the crude Monte Carlo method is known to be computationally demanding. To improve computational efficiency, this paper presents an importance sampling based algorithm that can be applied to conduct efficient reliability evaluation for axially loaded piles. The spatial variability of soil properties along the pile length is considered by random field modeling, in which a mean, a variance, and a correlation length are used to statistically characterize a random field. The local averaging subdivision technique is employed to generate random fields. In each realization, the random fields are used as inputs to the well-established load transfer method to evaluate the load–displacement behavior of an axially loaded pile. Failure is defined as the event where the vertical movement at the pile top exceeds the allowable displacement. By sampling more heavily from the region of interest and then scaling the indicator function back by a ratio of probability densities, a faster rate of convergence can be achieved in the proposed importance sampling algorithm while maintaining the same accuracy as in the crude Monte Carlo method. Two examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed method. It is shown that the estimate based on the proposed importance sampling method is unbiased. Furthermore, the size of samples can be greatly reduced in the developed method.  相似文献   

岩质路堑边坡施工监测及稳定性分析     

王晓静 《测绘与空间地理信息》2015,(7)

以某高速公路岩质路堑边坡为例,通过施工现场监测及稳定性分析,结果显示初始设计状态下坡体深层位移和坡面位移接近滑动临界值。采取变更设计后,利用现场监测结合蒙特卡洛数值模拟的方法对该路堑边坡的加固效果进行稳定性和可靠性分析。经过加固后的边坡能较好地维持稳定,支护措施可靠。这种现场监测结合蒙特卡洛数值模拟的方法为路堑边坡的动态设计提供了依据,并能及时作出趋势性预测,为路堑岩质边坡的合理支护提供一种新的思路。  相似文献   

一种生成大周期伪随机数的新算法——改进的混合同余法     

郭凤鸣 《地球科学》1992,(6)

为了克服当前所生成的伪随机数周期小、每个随机数仅能出现1次而不能重复的缺点,本文提出了一种生成伪随机数的新方法,称为改进的混合同余法。  相似文献   

Primary proton spectrum around the knee deduced from the emulsion-chamber data obtained at Mts. Fuji and Kanbala     

J. Huang  N. Hotta  K. Kasahara  I. Ohta  S. Ozawa  T. Saito  M. Shibata  X. W. Xu  T. Yuda 《Astroparticle Physics》2003,18(6):637-648

We have done extensive Monte Carlo simulations using the new simulation codes of CORSIKA and COSMOS to compare with the gamma-family data obtained at Mts. Fuji (3750 m above sea level) and Kanbala (5500 m above sea level). Then, we estimated the primary proton and helium spectra around the knee energy region using a multiple-layered feed-forward neural network as a classifier of primary particle kind. The selection efficiency of proton-induced family events is estimated to be 82%. The flux value of protons at 2×10¹⁵ eV is (5.5±1.5)×10⁻¹⁴ (m⁻² s⁻¹ sr⁻¹ GeV⁻¹). The result suggests heavy-enriched primary composition around the knee region.  相似文献   

蒙特卡罗不确定性分析在O3模拟中的初步应用     

唐晓  王自发  朱江  吴其重  GBAGUIDI Alex 《气候与环境研究》2010,15(5):541-550

利用蒙特卡罗不确定性分析方法,分析了嵌套网格空气质量模式系统(NAQPMS/IAP)中154个模式输入变量不确定性对臭氧模拟的影响,量化了模式在北京奥运会期间臭氧模拟的不确定性,并确定出了主要不确定性因子。结果表明:(1)在奥运会期间(2008年8月8日～2008年8月24日),北京城区臭氧模拟的平均不确定性为19ppb,不确定性存在明显的日变化特征,白天不确定性大,夜间不确定性小。(2)在白天,北京城区近地层臭氧模拟最重要的不确定性来源是局地前体物排放,其次是NO2光解系数、风向、北京周边前体物排放和垂直扩散系数。另外,地面约150m以上,对臭氧模拟影响最大的不确定性因子是风向和北京周边前体物排放;夜间,北京城区近地层臭氧模拟的最大不确定性来源是局地NOx排放和垂直扩散系数。  相似文献   

A Simple Monte Carlo Method for Locating the Three-dimensional Critical Slip Surface of a Slope   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

XIE Mowen Institute of Environmental Systems  Kyushu University  Hakozaki --  Higashi Ku  Fukuok  Japan College of Resource Engineering  the University of Science  Technology Beijing  Xueyuan Ro  Haidian District  Beijing  China 《《地质学报》英文版》2004,78(6):1258-1266

Based on the assumption of the plain-strain problem, various optimization or random search methods have been developed for locating the critical slip surfaces in slope-stability analysis, but none of such methods is applicable to the 3D case. In this paper, a simple Monte Carlo random simulation method is proposed to identify the 3D critical slip surface. Assuming the initial slip to be the lower part of a slip ellipsoid, the 3D critical slip surface is located by means of a minimized 3D safety factor. A column-based 3D slope stability analysis model is used to calculate this factor. In this study, some practical cases of known minimum safety factors and critical slip surfaces in 2D analysis are extended to 3D slope problems to locate the critical slip surfaces. Compared with the 2D result, the resulting 3D critical slip surface has no apparent difference in terms of only cross section, but the associated 3D safety factor is definitely higher.  相似文献   

高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型及应用          下载免费PDF全文

张超  胡志根 《水科学进展》2019,30(1):102-111

面向工程设计阶段,采用高拱坝施工动态仿真技术获取施工初-中期挡水度汛面貌数据,综合考虑水文、水力随机性因素,构建高拱坝施工初-中期导流风险模型,提出采用Monte Carlo方法耦合挡水度汛面貌数据和主要随机因素进行风险模型求解的方法。基于风险分析原理提出了导流洞设计的风险判别方法,给出导流洞尺寸设计优化的数学模型和具体步骤。通过金沙江上游某高拱坝工程案例分析的结果表明:所提风险模型及求解方法是适用的、有效的,该模型能够得到整个施工初-中期导流风险率,较为客观地反映高拱坝施工中期度汛可能存在的两种挡水情况,克服了初期导流风险模型的局限性;施工中期导流风险率随导流洞尺寸增大而减小,导流洞尺寸设计的可行方案集存在界限,即优化方案。研究成果可为高拱坝施工导流的风险决策和设计优化提供理论支撑。  相似文献   

基于可靠度理论的尾矿坝失稳概率及敏感性分析          下载免费PDF全文

李涛  刘国栋  王聪 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2019,30(3):81-86

为了能够真实反映砭家沟尾矿库的稳定特性,运用Monte Carlo试验原理,考虑库区砂层的空间变异特性,利用Slope/W软件对尾矿库进行了概率分析与敏感性分析。分析表明,抽样方式的不同,使尾矿坝体失稳概率和可靠性指标发生了大幅波动,但是并没有使安全系数产生明显变化,也验证了仅将安全系数作为衡量尾矿坝体稳定性的唯一标准是不合适的;敏感性分析也表明了砂层主要参数对安全系数影响的敏感程度,同时也表明黏聚力是影响库区稳定的主要砂层因素。通过研究,为尾矿库今后的运行与管理提供了理论依据,具有一定的指导意义。  相似文献   

Reliability analysis of the induced damage for single-hole rock blasting     

Mahdi Shadab Far  Yuan Wang  Yousif A. H. Dallo 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2019,13(1):82-98

Rock explosion has always been a complex problem because neither rock characteristics nor explosion waves could be accurately estimated. As such, this imposes a high uncertainty on deterministic methodologies available for damage prediction. In this paper, by defining two damage zones around the blast hole, including crushed and cracked zones, a first-order reliability analysis (FORM) was adopted to address this issue. For this purpose, FORM was used in a double-loop algorithm, where the inner loop was responsible for converging the FORM, and the outer loop was assigned to feed the inner loop with new cases. Using such nested-loop algorithm, the probability of exceedance was calculated for any desired damage zone radius. The maximum effect of the involved parameters on the failure probability induced around the blast hole was additionally studied using a parametric reliability analysis. The results showed that the radii for crushed and cracked zones are limited to 0.5 and 4.2?m, respectively, so that the probability of going beyond these limits is less than 1%. Moreover, the analyses of decoupled explosions showed that increasing the gap between the explosion charge and wall of the borehole could severely reduce the failure probability; however, the maximum effect of decoupling ratio occurs in the small range of radii between 0.3?mm and 2.35?m.  相似文献