Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change     

《Global Environmental Change》2016

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.  相似文献   

1991年5-7月江淮洪涝:水汽和冷空气的作用比较     

姜颖  陆尔 《气象科学》2016,36(3):382-388

对1991年5-7月江淮流域持续性暴雨的环流异常进行分析,比较造成此次洪涝的水汽输送和冷空气活动重要性。结果表明：（1）东亚大槽维持在中国东北上空发展明显,同时鄂霍次克海上空没有建立强大阻高,这种形势有利于冷空气持续向南侵袭,盛行经向环流。此外,低纬度地区,西太平洋副热带高压主体位置于常年同期相比,明显偏西、偏强,有利于暖湿气流沿副热带高压北上到达江淮流域,与北方冷空气辐合形成强降水。（2）通过定义I_T和I_q分别表征温度与水汽对降水的贡献,发现此次江淮流域地区强降水是由对流层低层水汽异常增多和气温异常偏低共同造成的,作用基本相当。  相似文献   

Water-rock-tailings interactions and sources of sulfur and metals in the subtropical mining region of Taxco,Guerrero (southern Mexico): A multi-isotopic approach     

《Applied Geochemistry》2016

Multi-isotope (H, O, S, Sr, Pb) systems coupled with conventional (major and trace element) hydrogeochemical analysis were applied to determine the origin of water, to model water-rock-tailings interactions and for source apportionment of sulfur and associated toxic metals in the mining region of Taxco, Guerrero in southern Mexico. Oxygen and H isotopes indicate that meteoric water in the zone is rainwater undergoing varying degrees of isotopic fractionation by atmospheric evaporation whereas Sr isotopes trace the interaction of pristine water from volcanics of the regional recharge zone and subsequently flowing through sandstone and shale to spring points. Leachates form from two distinctive sources (spring water and surface water) having differential interactions with bedrocks prior to entering the tailings. Compared to pristine water, leachates are enriched in sulfate, metals (e.g. Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn) and metalloids (e.g. As). The sulfur isotopic composition of ore-sulfides, leachates, secondary precipitates, regional surface water and hypogenic sulfates is described in terms of a two-component mixing model with shale of Mexcala and limestone of Morelos formations representing the light and heavy end-members, respectively, whereas Sr isotopic composition is bracketed combining three lithogenic (Mexcala/Morelos, Tilzapotla and Taxco Schist) sources. Finally, leachates have a mixture of lead from ore-sulfides and Taxco Schist Formation (Family I) or from ore-sulfides alone (Family II). The application of multiple environmental isotopic techniques is an outstanding tool for elucidating complex interactions of water with bedrocks and tailings and for determining the source of sulfur and toxic metal from mining and other metal polluted environments.  相似文献   

Reactive transport impacts on recovered freshwater quality during multiple partially penetrating wells (MPPW-)ASR in a brackish heterogeneous aquifer     

《Applied Geochemistry》2016

The use of multiple partially penetrating wells (MPPW) during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) in brackish aquifers can significantly improve the recovery efficiency (RE) of unmixed injected water. The water quality changes by reactive transport processes in a field MPPW-ASR system and their impact on RE were analyzed. The oxic freshwater injected in the deepest of four wells was continuously enriched with sodium (Na⁺) and other dominant cations from the brackish groundwater due to cation exchange by repeating cycles of ‘freshening’. During recovery periods, the breakthrough of Na⁺ was retarded in the deeper and central parts of the aquifer by ‘salinization’. Cation exchange can therefore either increase or decrease the RE of MPPW-ASR compared to the RE based on conservative Cl⁻, depending on the maximum limits set for Na⁺, the aquifer’s cation exchange capacity, and the native groundwater and injected water composition. Dissolution of Fe and Mn-containing carbonates was stimulated by acidifying oxidation reactions, involving adsorbed Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ and pyrite in the pyrite-rich deeper aquifer sections. Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ remained mobile in anoxic water upon approaching the recovery proximal zone, where Fe²⁺ precipitated via MnO₂ reduction, resulting in a dominating Mn²⁺ contamination. Recovery of Mn²⁺ and Fe²⁺ was counteracted by frequent injections of oxygen-rich water via the recovering well to form Fe and Mn-precipitates and increase sorption. The MPPW-ASR strategy exposes a much larger part of the injected water to the deeper geochemical units first, which may therefore control the mobilization of undesired elements during MPPW-ASR, rather than the average geochemical composition of the target aquifer.  相似文献   

南水北调中线突发水污染事件的快速预测          下载免费PDF全文

龙岩  徐国宾  马超  李有明 《水科学进展》2016,27(6):883-889

依据南水北调中线干渠资料,开展了正常输水情况下串联明渠内可溶污染物浓度分布规律数值模拟研究。采用数值模拟、数学归纳和统计分析方法,提出表征污染物输移扩散特征的峰值输移距离、污染带长度和峰值浓度的快速预测公式;通过示范工程验证了快速预测公式的可行性。结果表明:①串联明渠内,峰值输移距离随渠道流速减小而减小,并且污染带长度增加值随明渠内流速减小而减小,但是峰值浓度随明渠流速减小而增加;②快速预测公式计算结果与现场试验实测结果的误差均不到15%,证明了快速预测公式的合理性和可行性。这些研究结果为南水北调中线工程突发可溶性水污染事件应急预警方案的制定提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

辽宁省地下水动态成因类型分析     

金速  张静  王咏林 《城市地质》2016,(2):64-68

根据辽宁省2006—2010年地下水水位实际监测数据,分析地下水水位动态变化规律、形成原因及发展趋势,再结合地下水动态变化的自然与人为影响控制因素,以及地下水的补给、径流、排泄条件等,将辽宁省地下水动态成因类型划分为:气候型、开采型、灌溉型、水文型和径流型,经过较为全面系统的统计分析计算,绘制出地下水动态变化历时曲线,对五种地下水动态成因类型分别予以较为详细的综合分析研究,总结出辽宁省地下水动态变化规律特征。  相似文献   

Experimental and theoretical study of a cylindrical oscillating water column device with a quadratic power take-off model     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

The wave power extraction by a cylindrical oscillating water column (OWC) device with a quadratic power take-off (PTO) model was studied experimentally and theoretically. In the experiment, a scaled model OWC was tested in a wave flume, with an orifice being used to simulate a quadratic PTO mechanism. In the theoretical analysis, the quadratic PTO model was linearized based on Lorenz's principle of equivalent work, which allows us to perform a frequency domain analysis using an eigen-function matching method. The effects of higher harmonic components and the spatial non-uniformity of the surface velocity inside the chamber were discussed. A semi-analytical model was proposed to understand the viscous loss affecting the measured capture length. Our treatment of the quadratic PTO model was validated by comparing quasi-linear theoretical capture length and the laboratory measurement. Our results also showed that the effects of spatial non-uniformity and viscous loss could be noticeable for shorter waves.  相似文献   

青岛冷水团的消亡机理研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张启龙  刘志亮  齐继峰  杨德周  郑冬梅 《海洋学报》2016,38(5):27-33

本文基于多年月平均水温资料,分析了青岛冷水团的长消过程,并利用气候态月平均大气数据和数值模拟结果,探讨了青岛冷水团的消亡机理。结果表明,青岛冷水团3月出现,4月成型,5月最盛,6月减弱,7月消失;南黄海6-7月间偏南风的增强和温跃层以下反气旋涡的减弱是青岛冷水团消亡的动力机制,而海面净热通量的下传和水平热量的输入则是青岛冷水团消亡的热力机制。  相似文献   

沂蒙缺水山区地下水赋存规律及找水定井范例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

贾德旺  赵庆令 《山东国土资源》2016,32(5)

沂蒙山区是山东省重点贫困缺水地区,缺水区域分布较广,区内地质条件复杂,找水难度极大。通过综合分析区内气象水文、岩性特征、地质构造及地形地貌等地质因素,初步查明了不同地段含水层的结构和富水性;并结合水文地质调查、物探、钻探等综合勘探方法和手段,实施了探采结合孔8口,成功率100%,满足了区内约3万余人的饮用及300余亩土地灌溉用水需求,取得了良好的经济和社会效益。为我国北方严重缺水山区找寻地下水起到了宝贵的指导和示范作用。  相似文献   

Hydrochemical characterization of groundwater in Balad district,Salah Al-Din Governorate,Iraq          下载免费PDF全文

Alhassan H Ismail  Muntasir A Shareef  Wesam Mahmood 《地下水科学与工程》2018,6(4):306-322

The assessment of hydrochemical quality of groundwater is very important to explore its nature and usefulness. In this paper, groundwater quality evaluation is carried out in the Balad district, Salah Al-Din Governorate, Iraq. A total of 28 groundwater samples are collected from shallow tube wells and analyzed for various physicochemical parameters. Groundwater suitability for drinking is evaluated based on the World Health Organization (WHO) and Iraqi standards, and suitability of groundwater for irrigation is assessed based on various hydrochemical parameters. The results reveal that the dominant types of groundwater based on piper diagram are mixed CaMgCl and CaCl. Gibbs ratio indicates that the groundwater in the studied area is affected by the evaporation process. The cation-anion exchange reaction in the studied area demonstrates that 54% of the groundwater samples indicate a direct base (cation-anion) exchange reaction, while 46% of the groundwater samples indicating the chloro-alkaline disequilibrium. Furthermore, generally all of the groundwater samples are unsuitable for drinking and irrigation. Cluster analysis reveals two different groups of similarities between the groundwater samples, reflecting different pollution levels in the studied area.  相似文献