A temporal model for landslide risk based on historical precipitation     

Stanley M. Miller 《Mathematical Geology》1988,20(5):529-542

Of the recognized nonsteady-state factors that influence slope stability, probably most critical in many field situations is the character of precipitation and infiltration activity. A groundwater response model used in conjunction with precipitation records can provide a historical catalog of estimated maximum groundwater levels in a particular study area. An extreme-value statistical analysis of this catalog is linked with geotechnical slope stability analyses to provide a landslide hazard model for estimating the probability of slope failure within a given time. This modeling approach can provide meaningful input to risk assessments for landslide mitigation programs and to decision analyses and cost-benefit studies important for land-use planning and resource management.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.  相似文献   

Preliminary results of seismic hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy     

M. S. Barbano  F. Colombo  G. Zonno 《Natural Hazards》1989,2(3-4):307-328

The seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area has been worked out by a modification of the McGuire (1976) computing programme, taking into account the influence of nine potential seismic source zones.The method uses truncated-quadratic intensity-frequency distribution and azimuth-dependent intensity attenuation derived from isoseismal maps for each of the seismogenetic sources. A new modification has been introduced to take into account different decay of the intensity in the near (to VIII degree) and far (from VIII degree) field.Different assumptions about maximum possible intensities and truncation of intensity-frequency laws are used to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties on the computed hazard at high intensities. Intensities associated with different level of annual probability are computed for five test sites in the considered area. Maps displaying the expected intensity for a mean return period of 500 years (pa 0.002) are presented and compared with observed intensities.Presented at the XXIst General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Symposium on Methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe, Sofia, 23–27 August 1988.  相似文献   

Statistical estimation of a shock center: Slate Islands astrobleme     

P. E. Jupp  B. D. Spurr 《Mathematical Geology》1989,21(2):191-198

Statistical models are proposed for the distribution of directions in three dimensions that are thought to point toward a single source. These models are based on the Fisher distribution. The method of maximum likelihood is used to obtain an estimate of position of the source and to provide corre-sponding confidence regions. When applied to shatter cone data from the Slate Islands, northern Lake Superior, the method yields estimates comparable with those obtained by Stesky and Halls (1982), as well as statistically valid confidence regions.  相似文献   

断裂构造频率图与金矿分布的关系：以美国内华达州为例     

徐增亮  彭人勇 《华东地质学院学报》1989,12(2):1-7

  相似文献   

矿山淹井中水位、水量的快速估算和预报     

尹春芳 《华东地质学院学报》1988,(3)

本文用数理统计方法,快速估算和预报矿山淹井中水住、最高水位,矿井水涌量、涌入矿区的总水量和需要排出水量。用简单易行的反推法确定淹井的涌水量,并推导出计算式,以供使用。该方法在某矿淹井中使用,效果良好。  相似文献   

On some problems about testing stochastic models of the earthquake time series     

Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(2):99-108

  相似文献   

多元统计在大洋玄武岩同位素端元识别中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

李曙光  肖越辉 《地质科学》1994,29(3):298-308

应用因子分析的方差最大旋转和非线性映射方法对海洋玄武岩Sr、Nd、Pb同位素数据在多维空间中的数据结构进行了分析。研究表明这些数据在多维空间中呈五角形结构,并对应5个地幔端元:大西洋中脊玄武岩(DMM),圣埃伦那(HIMU),鲸岛(EMI),萨摩亚岛(EMII)和DS(EMIII).其中DS(EMIII)是本文新识别出来的一个地幔端元,它可能是重新进入地幔的具有较高古老放射成因Pb的下地壳物质。  相似文献   

南极拉斯曼丘陵地区大地测量控制网   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

陈春明  鄂栋臣  桑吉章 《极地研究》1995,7(3):101-106

南极拉斯曼丘陵地区大地测量控制网的建立与施测前后共历经４年方始完成，总控制面积约１７７．６平方公里。本文主要讨论了该网分区布设情况及总体平差的原理与方法，并对成果进行了统计分析。经过整体平差的结果可以满足１：１００００测图的需要。该网也是我国东南极中山站地区的基础大地控制网  相似文献   

方差的边缘极大似然估计     

周世健 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1993,(2)

测量平差问题中,方差估计理论是复杂的。本文基于概括模型,组成自由项f(极大似然估计 MLE)的密度函数和改正数向量 V的线性函数(边缘极大似然估计 MMLE)的密度函数,详细推导了函数模型与随机模型中,未知参数 X与σ_0~2 的似然估计公式,分析了基于两种密度函数所得σ_0~2的似然估计存在差异的真正原因,并对两种方法所得的σ_0~2和X 的统计性质进行了讨论。指出边缘极大似然估计,σ_0~2 的具有良好的统计性质,可改善极大似然估计σ_0~2 的不定性(有偏);并且对任一平差模型的边缘极大似然估计,σ_0~2 无偏、有效的统计性质是一致的。  相似文献   

断裂对地下水力扩散的影响及其与诱发地震关系的讨论     

谢原定  张生源 《地震研究》1990,13(4):370-376

本文重点讨论了断裂规模、断裂相交网络和断裂力学的性质对地下水力扩散的影响,及其与诱发地震的关系。指出断裂密集成带的地方,水力扩散大。根据流体流动规律,水力扩散沿断裂方向流体流速大,断裂越长越深,沿断裂方向水力扩散距离就越大。而水力扩散随深度的变化,由于不同深度上岩性变化和应力状态的不同,有的深度上的岩类可能出现扩容而增大水力扩散。因此它并不是随围压的增大而单值地减少。 文章指出断裂的末端和断裂的交汇处是地下水富集的地方,在水富集地方的四周,水力扩散比其它地方要大。另外现代活动的张性和张扭性断裂比压性和压扭性断裂的水力扩散大。文章还提出水沿断裂扩散是水库诱发地震的直接原因。水力扩散大的断裂,水库诱发地震的可能性大,规模大而活的断裂诱发地震的震级可能大。  相似文献