Avalanche Hazard Mitigation Strategies Assessed by Cost Effectiveness Analyses and Cost Benefit Analyses—evidence from Davos,Switzerland     

Sven Fuchs  Magdalena Thöni  Maria Christina McAlpin  Urs Gruber  Michael Bründl 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(1):113-129

This paper demonstrates the application of cost effectiveness analysis and cost benefit analysis to alternative avalanche risk reduction strategies in Davos, Switzerland. The advantages as well as limitations of such analysis for natural hazards planning are discussed with respect to 16 avalanche risk reduction strategies. Scenarios include risk reduction measures that represent the main approaches to natural hazards planning in Switzerland, such as technical, organisational, and land use planning measures. The methodologies used outline how concepts and techniques from risk analysis, hazard mapping, Geographic Information System, and economics can be interdisciplinary combined. The results suggest important considerations, such as possible sources of uncertainty due to different choices in the calculation of cost effectiveness ratio and net present value. Given the parameters and assumptions, it seems as if the current approach to avalanche risk reduction in the study area approximates to economic and cost efficiency and serves the aim of reducing risk to human fatalities.  相似文献   

AN ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR CALCULATING THE INITIATION OF SEDIMENT MOTION     

Thomas LUCKNER Ulrich ZANKE 《国际泥沙研究》2007,22(2):87-102

This paper presents an analytical solution for calculating the initiation of sediment motion and the risk of river bed movement. It thus deals with a fundamental problem in sediment transport, for which no complete analytical solution has yet been found. The analytical solution presented here is based on forces acting on a single grain in state of initiation of sediment motion. The previous procedures for calculating the initiation of sediment motion are complemented by an innovative combination of optical surface measurement technology for determining geometrical parameters and their statistical derivation as well as a novel approach for determining the turbulence effects of velocity fluctuations. This two aspects and the comparison of the solution functions presented here with the well known data and functions of different authors mainly differ the presented solution model for calculating the initiation of sediment motion from previous approaches. The defined values of required geometrical parameters are based on hydraulically laboratory tests with spheres. With this limitations the derivated solution functions permit the calculation of the effective critical transport parameters of a single grain, the calculation of averaged critical parameters for describing the state of initiation of sediment motion on the river bed, the calculation of the probability density of the effective critical velocity as well as the calculation of the risk of river bed movement. The main advantage of the presented model is the closed analytical solution from the equilibrium of forces on a single grain to the solution functions describing the initiation of sediment motion.  相似文献   

耦合FLUS和Markov的快速发展城市土地利用空间格局模拟方法     

王旭东  姚尧  任书良  史绪国 《地球信息科学学报》2022,24(1):100-113

模拟城市土地利用空间变化格局的研究,对未来区域规划以及实现可持续发展具有十分积极的作用。以往基于FLUS的研究栅格尺度较大,如何模拟快速发展中城市的复杂土地利用变化过程,挖掘土地利用变化驱动机制值得进一步探讨。本文构建了耦合FLUS和Markov的城市土地利用格局拟合框架,创新性地引入房价指标表征社会经济属性,以深圳为研究区,基于30 m空间分辨率小栅格尺度的土地利用分类数据和基础地理、路网河网、感兴趣点等多源空间变量,模拟不同发展情景下的未来城市土地利用空间格局,并通过随机森林进行土地利用变化驱动因素分析。研究结果表明:本文提出的耦合FLUS和Markov方法相较于传统CA模型（RFA-CA和Logistic-CA）精度更高（FoM=0.22）,能更准确地模拟快速发展中城市的土地利用变化过程;多情景土地利用格局制图结果验证了城市发展过程中生态控制线的重要性,进一步说明本文拟合框架在未来城市规划布局中的参考价值;医院、娱乐场所等的基础设施和公交、路网密度等的基础交通比自然因素（高程、坡度）对城市发展的影响更大,到海岸线距离会在一定程度上限制深圳内部土地利用变化过程。本研究所构建模型及精细制图结果,可为城市区域规划和空间格局模拟等相关研究提供参考依据和理论基础。  相似文献   

Military pollution and natural purity: seeing nature and knowing contamination in Vieques, Puerto Rico     

Jeffrey Sasha Davis  Jessica S. Hayes-Conroy  Victoria M. Jones 《GeoJournal》2007,69(3):165-179

Military activities have produced contaminated environments at many sites around the world. This contamination and the associated health risks play a large role in how these places can be redeveloped after military use. In this essay we focus on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico which was used as a bombing range by the US military for six decades until 2003. We examine the ways different groups of people perceive this formerly militarized landscape and the ways that these perceptions legitimatize certain redevelopment options over others. Through participant observation, semi-structured interviews and an analysis of textual materials we found that many local residents view the island as suffering from severe contamination while the large number of visitors, tourism promoters and North Americans now flocking to the post-militarized Vieques view it quite differently. These perceptions of purity and contamination, affected by different knowledges of the island’s history, have led to differing valuation of the landscape and contentious economic, political, and cultural battles over an island often labeled “natural” despite a history of military use and social exclusion.

Jeffrey Sasha DavisEmail:

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山西陆面过程对A1B排放情景下全球变化趋势的响应     

姚洁  赵桂香  金磊 《干旱气象》2014,(3):346-353

山西地处气候过渡带,气候敏感、生态脆弱,在全球气候变暖背景下其陆面物理过程受气候波动影响十分明显。本文利用NCAR CCSM IPCC AR4陆面分量模式(CLM)20世纪气候模拟(20C3M)和21世纪SRES A1B排放情景下的模拟结果,对山西省21世纪(2001~2099年)与20世纪(1901~1999年)陆面能量和水文变量进行了对比分析。结果显示:(1)模式模拟出山西地区未来地面温度的空间及时间分布特征。未来山西省地面温度呈明显上升趋势,上升速率冬季大于夏季。空间上,增温幅度冬季自北向南递减,夏季自西向东递减;(2)未来山西省陆面各分量空间上,净辐射通量西北增幅大于东南,降水率和径流率则与其相反,潜热通量与蒸发率一致,西南部增加幅度大,土壤含水率冬夏分布相反,感热通量呈下降趋势,西南下降幅度大;时间上,净辐射通量、潜热通量均表现出不同程度的上升趋势,土壤热通量冬季上升,夏季下降;地表水循环的各分量均呈增加趋势。  相似文献   

Mutual Interference of Two Debris Flow Deposits Delivered in a Downstream River Reach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

STANCANELLI Laura Maria  LANZONI Stefano  FOTI Enrico 《山地科学学报》2014,(6):1385-1395

We investigate experimentally the depositions of two contiguous debris flows flowing into a main river reach.The aim of the present experimental research is to analyze the geometry and the mutual interactions of debris flow deposits conveyed by these tributaries in the main channel.A set of 19 experiments has been conducted considering three values of the confluence angle,two slopes of the tributary,and three different triggering conditions（debris flows occurring simultaneously in the tributaries,or occurring first either in the upstream or in the downstream tributary）.The flow rate along the main channel was always kept constant.During each experiment the two tributaries had the same slope and confluence angle.The analysis of the data collected during the experimental tests indicates that the volume of the debris fan is mainly controlled by the slope angle,as expected,while the shape of the debris deposit is strongly influenced by the confluence angle.Moreover,in the case of multiple debris flows,the deposit shape is sensitive to the triggering conditions.Critical index for damming formation available in literature has been considered and applied to the present case,and,on the basis of the collected data,considerations about possible extension of such indexes to the case of multiple confluences are finally proposed.  相似文献   

CMIP5多模式资料中气温的BMA预测方法研究   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

智协飞  王晶  林春泽  彭婷  王佳 《气象科学》2015,35(4):405-412

利用CMIP5的8个全球气候系统模式对气温的回报结果进行贝叶斯模式平均(简称BMA)试验,并采用均方根误差、距平相关系数、连续等级概率评分等对多模式集合平均(简称EMN)和BMA的回报结果进行检验、评估。结果表明,EMN的回报效果优于8个单模式的回报效果,而BMA的回报效果最好,其区域平均的均方根误差比EMN小0.5℃左右。在此基础上,利用中等排放情景RCP4.5下CMIP5模式中的年际年代际预估资料对2011—2035年的气温进行预估。研究发现东亚地区在2011—2035年气温将普遍升高,海洋上的增暖幅度较小,陆地上的增暖幅度较大,且增暖幅度随纬度升高而增大。青藏高原及中国北方大部分地区气温将明显升高,升温幅度在1℃左右,而南方的升温幅度较小,约为0.3~0.6℃。  相似文献   

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Autumn North Atlantic Wave Climate     

Lanli Guo  Zhenxia Long  Bash Toulany  Jinyu Sheng 《大气与海洋》2015,53(5):491-509

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the impact of global warming induced by possible climate change on the autumn winds, the related storm climate, and the wave climate over the North Atlantic Ocean. These analyses are based on a third-generation wave model, WAVEWATCHIII? and dynamically downscaled winds, obtained from the Canadian Regional Climate Model driven by the third version of the Coupled Global Climate Model (T47) from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis following the A1B climate change scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Compared with the present wave climate, represented as 1970–1999, the significant wave heights in the northeast North Atlantic will increase, whereas in other areas, such as the mid-latitudes, they will decrease, with associated changes in winds in the future climate (2040–2069). An analysis of inverse wave ages is used to suggest that wind-driven wave regimes tend to occur more frequently in the northeast North Atlantic and decrease in the mid-latitudes in the climate change scenario. The dominant North Atlantic storm-track region is estimated to shift northward, especially over the northern Northeast Atlantic, where the frequency of occurrence of the most intense cyclones is estimated to increase. We suggest that changes in storm densities are related to changes in the upper level steering flow in the atmosphere, which are the precursor to changes in the winds and ocean waves.  相似文献   

气候变化对雨养冬小麦水分利用效率的影响估算   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

成林  方文松 《应用气象学报》2015,26(3):300-310

研究气候变化对雨养冬小麦水分利用效率的影响规律,可为农业适应气候变化提供科学依据。通过构建代表站雨养冬小麦产量和土壤水分变化量的模拟方程,分析水分利用效率的历史变化,并结合两种区域气候模式PRECIS和REGCM4.0输出的4种不同气候变化情景资料,估算未来2021—2050年雨养冬小麦水分利用效率的可能变化。结果表明:1981—2010年甘肃、山西和河南代表站的雨养冬小麦水分利用效率呈二次曲线变化趋势,最大值出现在2003年前后。4种气候变化情景的模拟结果均显示:2021—2050年冬小麦全生育期耗水量明显增加,各代表站不同情景平均增加6.2%;产量有增有减,平均产量变化率为1.4%;水分利用效率平均减小3.8%,且变率减小。区域气候模式PRECIS估算的水分利用效率的减小量A2情景大于B2情景,REGCM4.0模式估算的水分利用效率的减小量RCP8.5情景大于RCP4.5情景。整体来看,RCP气候情景对雨养冬小麦水分利用效率的负面影响更大。  相似文献   

IPCC SROCC的主要结论和启示     

王朋岭  黄磊  巢清尘  袁佳双  陈超 《气候变化研究进展》2020,16(2):133-142

2019年9月,IPCC正式发布《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）,这是IPCC首次以高山地区与极区冰冻圈和海洋为主题的评估报告。报告全面评估气候变化背景下海洋和冰冻圈变化及其广泛影响与风险,其核心结论包括：气候系统变暖背景下高山地区和极区的冰冻圈普遍退缩,未来冰冻圈将继续消融,高山地区和极区将面临更高的灾害风险;20世纪70年代以来全球海洋持续增暖,未来海洋将继续变暖、加速酸化,影响海洋生物多样性并危及海洋生态系统服务功能和人类社会;近几十年全球平均海平面加速上升,未来数百年海平面仍将持续上升,极端海面事件频发将加剧沿海地区社会-生态系统的灾害风险。报告强调,采取及时、积极、协调和持久的适应与减缓行动,是有效应对海洋和冰冻圈变化,实现气候恢复力发展路径和可持续发展目标的关键所在。本研究认为,需要高度重视海洋和冰冻圈在气候系统变化中的长期和不可逆影响,强化应对气候变化紧迫性认识;高度重视我国冰冻圈和沿海地区面临的气候风险,强化适应能力建设;推动我国牵头的国际大科学计划,强化跨学科、跨领域协同创新,持续提升我国在相关领域的国际影响力和科技支撑能力。  相似文献