地震活动性总体参量Rt在东南沿海地震带西段地震预测中的应用     

史水平  李细光  李柳英 《华南地震》2007,27(4):41-47

分析了1974年以来东南沿海地震带西段发生的MS≥4.9级地震前地震活动性总体状态参量Rt的变化特点,同时对Rt值在东南沿海地震带西段的地震预测效能进行了检验评估。结果表明,当Rt>0.82时,表明东南沿海地震带西段地震活动状态比较正常,发生4.9级以上地震的概率较低;反之,当Rt≤0.82时,则表明东南沿海地震带西段地震活动比较活跃,发生4.9级以上地震的概率较大。  相似文献   

南北带强震年度预测能力估计   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

刘蒲雄  刘连柱  车时  黄德瑜  吕晓健  韩丹  张宇霞 《地震》2006,26(2):38-44

对中国地震局原分析预报中心测震学科1988～1999年度划定的南北地震带强震(M≥7)危险区进行了回顾和分析。 结果表明, 从过程角度研究前兆地震活动图像及其演变是年度和中短期强震预测的有效途径, 这为南北地震带强震震情跟踪提供了条件。  相似文献   

使用因子分析方法研究九江5.7级地震前的地震活动异常     

王炜  林命週  马钦忠  吴耿锋  赵利飞  吴绍春 《地震》2006,26(3):9-16

使用2005年11月26日江西九江5.7级地震前震中附近地区的地震资料, 选择反映地震活动时、 空、 强特征的地震频次N(M_L≥3.0)、 b值、 η值、 A(b)值、 Mf值、 Ac值、 C值和D值参量进行因子分析。 这些参量之间具有一定的相关性, 各参量在不同时段的变化各有所异, 预报效果并不理想。 但是根据因子分析可以得到反映地震活动时、 空、 强特征的综合指标W_fa值, 该指标在九江5.7级地震前出现明显的异常变化。 表明综合指标W_fa值可以较好地反映地震活动的异常特征。 文中还对与因子分析结果的有关问题进行了讨论。  相似文献   

Numerical modeling of nonlinear water waves over heterogeneous porous beds   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Eric C. Cruz  Qin Chen   《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(8-9):1303-1321

The transformation of nonlinear water waves over porous beds is studied by applying a numerical model based on Chen's [2006. Fully nonlinear Boussinesq-type equations for waves and currents over porous beds. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 132:2, 220–230] Boussinesq-type equations for highly nonlinear waves on permeable beds. The numerical model uses a high-order time-marching solution and fourth-order finite-difference schemes for discretization of first-order spatial derivatives to obtain a computational accuracy consistent with the model equations. By forcing the wave celerity and spatial porous-damping rate of the linearized model to match the exact linear theory for horizontal porous bed over a prescribed range of relative depths, the values of the model parameters are optimally determined. Numerical simulations of the damped wave propagation over finite-thickness porous layer demonstrate the accuracy of both the numerical model and governing equations, which have been shown by prior theoretical analyses to be accurate for both nominal and thick porous layers. These simulations also elucidate on the significance of the higher-order porous-damping terms and the influence of the hydraulic parameters. Application of the model to the simulation of the wave field around a laboratory-scale submerged porous mound provides a measure of its capability, as well as useful insight into the scaling of the porous-resistance coefficients. For application to heterogeneous porous beds, the assumption of weak spatial variation of the porous resistance is examined using truncated forms of the governing equations. The results indicate that the complete set of Boussinesq-type equations is applicable to porous beds of nonhomogeneous makeup.  相似文献   

华南地区中生代以来构造应力场的基本特征     

李祖武  杨淑贤 《地震研究》1988,(1)

本文认为,华南地区于燕山旋回中早期主压应力轴是北西——南东和北西西——南东东向的。燕山晚期以来,主压应力轴基本上是北东——南西和北东东——南西西乃至近东西向的。  相似文献   

小震空间分在奇异性谱f（α）研究     

Zheng Zhaobi  Zhang Jun 《中国地震》1994,(4)

本文用数盒子法计算了１９７９年３月２日固镇５．０级、１９７４年４月２２日溧阳５．５级和１９７９年７月９日溧阳６．０级地震前后小震空间分布分形集合的奇异性谱ｆ（α），详细讨论了ｆ（α）谱所揭示的主震前后各阶段小震空间分布从稀疏到密集的各种密度分布不均匀性的定量特征。经分析可以看出，奇异性谱ｆ（α）较多重分形谱Ｄｑ的概念更直观、清晰，它包含了空间分布的全部信息，且计算量明显减少。  相似文献   

Dynamic faulting under rate-dependent friction   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Alain Cochard  Raúl Madariaga 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,142(3-4):419-445

We discuss the effects of rate-dependent friction on the propagation of seismic rupture on active faults. Several physicists using Burridge and Knopoff's box and spring model of faulting have proposed that fault complexity may arise from the spontaneous development of a self-similar stress distribution on the fault plane. If this model proves to be correct, it has important consequences for the origin of the complexity of seismic sources. In order to test these ideas on a more realistic earthquake model, we developed a new boundary integral equation method for studying rupture propagation along an antiplane fault in the presence of nonlinear rate-dependent friction. We study rupture dynamics of models with single and twin asperities. In our models, asperities are places on the fault with a higher value of prestress. Othewise all fault parameters are homogeneous. We show that for models with such asperities, a slip velocity weakening friction leads to the propagation of supersonic healing phases and to the spontaneous arrest of fracture if the prestress outside the asperities is low enough. For models with asperities, we can also observe narrow slip velocity pulses, qualitatively similar to the so-called Heaton pulses observed in some earthquake accelerograms. We also observe a complex distribution of stress after the rupture that depends on details of the initial distribution of asperities and on the details of the friction law.  相似文献   

澜沧—耿马7.6级地震前中小地震活动信息熵和分维的研究     

朱令人  王海涛 《内陆地震》1990,4(4):310-318

从信息论原理和分形几何学的观点出发,采用多种方法,分析研究1988年澜沧—耿马7.6级地震前地震活动的信息、信息熵和分维的变化特征表明,地震前1—2年内,中、小地震活动的信息熵、缺信量和容量维、信息维出现明显的低值变化过程,反映了地震前兆的减熵、降维特点,从一个侧面反映了大震前,一定区域内中、小地震活动的时空变化从无序向有序的演化过程。  相似文献   

阿德朗达克-西魁北克地震带地壳三维速度结构成像   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

朱介寿 Chun  KY 《地球物理学报》1991,34(2):161-171,T002

根据在阿德朗达克-西魁北克地震带及其邻近地区的59台短周期数字地震仪记录的直达P波走时观测值,用地震层析成像方法反演了该地区地壳三维速度结构.结果表明,地壳上层（0-5km）在阿德朗达克穹隆山的中南部地区出现正速度异常;第二层（5-10km）及第三层（10-15km）的速度横向变化较小,介质相对比较均匀;第四层（15-25km）出现显著的速度异常,一个是位于地震带中部的正速度异常（+4％）,它与布格重力正异常一致;另一个是位于阿德朗达克穹隆山下的负速度异常（-4％）.结合已有的地质及地球物理资料进行对比,可以认为阿德朗达克是一个正在发展的穹隆上升山,但其热源前锋尚未到达地面的大陆热点.  相似文献   

Focal mechanisms of intraplate earthquakes in Bolivia,South America     

A. Vega  E. Buforn 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1991,136(4):449-458

Intraplate seismic activity in Bolivia is mainly located in the central region (16°–19°S, 63°–67°W) which includes the East Andean Cordillera and the Sub-Andean Sierras. At this region there is a bend in the trend of the main geological structures from NW-SE in the north to N-S in the south. Focal mechanisms have been calculated for 10 earthquakes of magnitudes 4.9–5.6, using first motionP-waves from long period instruments. Their solutions correspond to reverse faulting, some with a large component of strike-slip motion. Their solutions can be grouped into two types; one with pure reverse faulting on planes with azimuth NW-SE and the other with a large strike-slip component on planes with azimuths nearly N-S or WNW-ESE. The maximum stress axis (P-axis) is practically horizontal (dipping less than 5°) oriented in a mean N56°E direction. This orientation may be related with the direction of compression resulting from the collision of the Nazca plate against the western margin of the South American continent. Wave-form analysis of long-periodP-waves for one event restricts the focal depth to 8 km in the Sub-Andean region. Seismic moments and source dimensions determined from spectra of Rayleigh waves are in the range of 10¹⁶–10¹⁷Nm and 17–24 km, respectively. The Central Bolivia region can be considered as a zone of intraplate deformation situated between the Bolivian Altiplano and the Brazil shield.  相似文献