Proposal of a National Mitigation Strategy Against Earthquakes in Turkey     

Bakir  P.G. 《Natural Hazards》2004,33(3):405-425

While laboratory and analytical studies can provide valuable information about earthquake hazard mitigation, the most effective educator is the impact of a full-scale earthquake on a full-scale city. The recent earthquakes in Turkey showed that the governmental as well as individual attitudes towards earthquakes did not represent proportionate responses to the risk levels concerned. Turkey had weaknesses in preparing, planning, mitigating and responding to disasters in spite of the known seismic vulnerability of the country. Many steps have been taken after 1999 earthquakes in Turkey, however, the preparations largely concentrate on the response and recovery phases and a fundamental step to reform the current disaster management system and steps to rehabilitate the vulnerable building stock has not been undertaken until today. This would involve changing the present laws and regulations and de-centralising the disaster management system. The aim of this paper is to propose a national mitigation strategy for Turkey for a time-frame of 10 years. The model proposed is a very comprehensive model for earthquake risk reduction in Turkey and within this context, the legislative and technical aspects of mitigation will be discussed in detail. Strategies for mitigating and retrofitting the existing building stock will also be proposed.  相似文献   

Damage Evaluation of Agro-meteorological Hazards in the Maize-Growing Region of Songliao Plain,China: Case Study of Lishu County of Jilin Province     

Zhang  Jiquan  Okada  Norio  Tatano  Hirokazu  Hayakawa  Seiji 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(1):209-232

Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought, waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Moreover, both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain, taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS (Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis, and the degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990, the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55% of seasons, of which 14% was caused by drought, 30% by waterlogging, 4% by cool summer and drought, 9% by cool summer and waterlogging, 13% by drought and waterlogging, 30% by drought, waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence, while southeastern hills and low mountains, the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought, waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics, which increase gradually from the center to the west and east, this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them, and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes.  相似文献   

博斯腾湖向塔里木河输水风险分析方法   总被引：5，自引：7，他引：5  

左其亭  李静  马军霞  吴泽宁  王薇 《干旱区地理》2004,27(3):361-366

为了拯救塔里木河下游生态环境，塔里木河流域管理局根据博斯腾湖从1999年到2003年处于丰水期，湖泊处于高水位的有利时机，从2000年5月到2003年6月实施5次向塔里木河下游生态应急输水，结束塔里木河下游300多km河道近30年的断流历史。现在的问题是“博斯腾湖向塔里木河生态输水能否持续?”，“保证可持续输水的风险有多大?”本文以解决此问题为实例，介绍一般水库调节计算和水库特征水位确定方法；主要探讨水库(湖泊)向下游输水可持续性风险分析问题，提出的方法称为“水库输水可持续性风险计算时历试算法”，简称为“试算法”(T＆E方法)；并将此方法应用于实例中，计算博斯腾湖向塔里木河下游输水的可持续风险。  相似文献   

试论实施防震减灾社会动员的途径与方法          下载免费PDF全文

张守洁 《地震工程学报》2005,27(4):357-360,376

0前言中国是一个多地震国家,频繁而严重的地震灾害给人民生命和财产带来了巨大的损失,防震减灾任务任重而道远。回良玉副总理2004年在全国防震减灾工作会议讲话中指出:“防震减灾是全社会共同的责任,要广泛动员社会各方的力量,积极投入到这项事业中来,使防震减灾逐步成为全社会的自觉行动。”因此,总结近40年我国防震减灾工作和改革开放的实践经验,对社会公众进行各种防震减灾宣传教育,广泛动员全社会力量,建立健全防震减灾社会动员机制,增强全社会防震减灾意识,是提高我国综合防震减灾能力,有效地促进地震灾害综合防御各项措施落实的重要途…  相似文献   

Paleo-earthquake studies on the eastern section of the Kunlun fault   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李春峰  贺群禄  赵国光 《地震学报(英文版)》2005,18(1):64-71

Introduction East Kunlun active fault is one of the largest sinistral slip fault zones in northern Tibetan Pla-teau. The fault tails primarily after the ancient eastern Kunlun suture zone, which was reactivatedby the northward subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate. The western end of thefault starts near the western flank of the Buxedaban peak in Qinghai Province. The fault then ex-tends eastwards through the Kusai Lake, Xidatan, Dongdatan, Alag Lake, Tuosuo Lak…  相似文献   

Application of Characteristics of Seismogenic Structures in the Determination of Parameter of Potential Seismic Source Areas     

Zhou Bengang 《中国地震研究》2005,19(4):430-441

INTRODUCTIONThe method of probabilistic seismic risk analysis was proposed by Cornell in1968(Cornell,1968).After more than30years development,it has become the main method for seismic riskassessment of engineering sites and seismic zonation,and has been u…  相似文献   

Characteristics of Energy Accumulation and Release of Seismogenic Tectonics and Seismic Risk Analysis in Some Areas in the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang1     

Shen Jun 《中国地震研究》2005,19(1):1-11

INTRODUCTIONHowtocombinethestudyofseismogenictectonicswithearthquakepredictionisanurgentscientificdifficulty .Thereexistbiggapsbetweenstudymethodsandcurrentknowledgeonseismogenitectonics ,earthquakeprediction ,seismogenesisandthephysicsofearthquakeoccurre…  相似文献   

舟山渔场软体生物中PCBs的残留及潜在生态风险          下载免费PDF全文

潘永强  薛斌  张慎伟  黄子茵 《海洋学研究》2018,36(2):92-98

本文测定了舟山渔场附近6个沿海城市5种软体动物体内多氯联苯的污染水平,并进一步探讨了其潜在来源以及生态风险。结果显示,样品中PCBs的总含量水平为18.0~95.9 ng/g干重,平均含量为51.9 ng/g干重,与世界其他海域相比处于中等污染水平。组分分析表明,五氯联苯和二氯联苯为主要组成。PCBs的健康风险HR值均远低于1,表明日常食用不会对人体健康产生明显危害。  相似文献   

2017年南丹Ms4.0地震前后重力变化     

文翔  毕熙荣  覃坚  柴现凡  冯骢 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(4):344-350

利用广西及邻区2014~2017年流动重力观测资料，系统分析区域重力场变化及其与2017-07-15广西南丹MS4.0地震的关系，并结合GPS观测数据与地震地质调查成果，探讨区域重力场变化的时空分布特征及机理。结果表明：1）南丹M_S4.0地震前后，震区附近重力异常变化与主干断裂关系密切，反映沿控震断裂在2014~2017年间发生了引起地表重力变化效应的地壳变形和构造活动；2）差分重力图像表明，南丹M_S4.0地震前重力变化为“局部重力异常→四象限重力异常→重力反向变化发震”的过程；3）重力变化与GPS 观测反映的水平运动表明，南丹M_S4.0地震位于重力四象限分布中心部位及面压缩峰值附近，证明重力场和形变场动态变化对中强地震地点预测具有指示意义；4）天峨-南丹-环江一带是重力变化最剧烈地区，亦是水平形变面压缩过渡带，同时位于莫霍面等深线强烈变化地段、M_L3.0地震围空区、沿主断裂存在的低b值异常区。结合地震活动图像、定点前兆观测异常综合分析认为，该地区仍存在发生中强地震的可能。  相似文献   

A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature‐based approaches to flood risk management,with application to in‐channel interventions across a 29‐km2 scale catchment in the United Kingdom          下载免费PDF全文

Peter Metcalfe  Keith Beven  Barry Hankin  Rob Lamb 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1734-1748

Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m³ is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.  相似文献