基于STIRPAT模型的江苏省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

黄蕊  王铮  丁冠群  龚洋冉  刘昌新 《地理研究》2016,35(4):781-789

定量分析碳排放的影响因素,对降低区域碳排放具有重要的指导意义。利用STIRPAT模型,定量分析江苏省能源消费碳排放量与人口、富裕度（以人均GDP表示）、技术进步（以能源强度表示）和城镇化水平之间的关系,通过岭回归拟合后发现,人口数量、人均GDP、能源强度、城市化水平每变化1%,江苏省能源消费碳排放量将分别发生3.467%、(0.242+0.024 lnA)%、0.313%和0.151%的变化。在以上研究的基础上,设置8种不同的发展情景,分析了江苏省未来能源消费碳排放量的发展趋势。结果表明,当人口、经济保持低速增长,并保持高技术增长率时,有利于控制江苏省的能源消费碳排放量,2020年江苏省的能源消费碳排放量预测值为202.81 MtC。  相似文献   

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地地表辐射与能量平衡   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

杨帆  王顺胜  何清  霍文  杨兴华  郑新倩  王毅  蔡文军  买买提艾力&#  买买提依明 《中国沙漠》2016,36(5):1408-1418

利用2013年塔克拉玛干沙漠塔中流动沙面地表辐射、土壤热通量、土壤温湿度和湍流通量观测资料,分析了沙漠腹地地表辐射和能量收支特征及闭合状况。结果表明：除潜热通量外,其余地表辐射各分量和能量平衡分量的月平均日变化结果整体均表现为标准的单峰型日循环形态,其中R_s↓与R_s↑变化同步,R_l↑、R_l↓滞后R_s↓0.5 ~ 1 h。各分量均表现出夏季高、春秋季次之、冬季低的季节波动性。干旱和极低的植被覆盖造成沙漠腹地全年潜热通量始终较为微弱,约占净辐射的2.8%,感热通量成为能量的主要消耗形式,约占净辐射的49%。偶尔的降水会刺激潜热通量突然增加。地表反照率相对较高且稳定,日变化呈早晚大、正午小的“U”型趋势,并具有明显的冬季高、夏季低的季节波动性,年均值0.28,月均值0.25~0.32。能量残差各月的日变化也均呈单峰曲线,日出后和日落前能量闭合程度最佳,并出现过闭合现象,全年夏季小,春秋季次之,冬季较大,月平均日峰值5.1~99.9 W·m^-2。土壤表层热储存是影响该地区能量平衡的重要因子之一,考虑表层土壤热存储后,地表能量闭合率达75.3%,能量闭合率夏季 > 春季 > 秋季 > 冬季,白天相比夜间有大幅提升。  相似文献   

晋北沙漠化地区起沙风风况与输沙势   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

李晋昌  韩柳彦  赵艳芳  张红  武志涛 《中国沙漠》2016,36(4):911-917

利用10个气象站点2001、2005、2010,2014年风速数据,计算并分析了晋北沙漠化地区起沙风风况及输沙势时空变化。结果表明：研究区年均起沙风频率和起沙风平均风速均为春季最大,冬季次之,夏季最小,各季节和全年年际变化均表现为大致减小趋势;输沙势显示研究区春季处于中风能环境,是最主要的风沙活动期,其他季节和全年整体上均处于低风能环境;春季风能环境总体呈减弱趋势,这可能是导致研究区2000年以来沙漠化逆转的重要因素之一;受地势影响,研究区春季风能环境呈北高南低、东高西低趋势,最高值位于东北部的大同盆地。  相似文献   

陕西旬阳县210国道6号边坡变形特征初步研究     

王振刚  孙社强  詹常辉 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2009,20(3):59-62

通过现场工程地质勘探、室内物理力学实验并利用FLAC2D数值分析软件对陕西旬阳县某堆积层边坡进行变形特征的实例分析,考查了坡体岩土体的粘聚力、内摩擦角数值与坡脚开挖深度的变化后,得出浅层岩土体较深层岩土体的滑动趋势与滑动位移均较大,并且浅层岩土体滑移变形对深层岩土体具有牵引力作用。最后对该类型堆积层坡体滑动的防治措施提出了一些看法。  相似文献   

四川九龙里伍铜矿主要矿石矿物扫描电镜能谱分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

戴婕  孙传敏  丁俊  冯孝良 《沉积与特提斯地质》2009,29(4):105-110

运用扫描电镜能谱分析（SEM＋EDS）方法对里伍铜矿主要矿石矿物的研究表明：闪锌矿中含有质量分数大于8％的Fe元素,黄铜矿和磁黄铁矿中含有少量的r元素。在矿石样品中首次发现硒铋矿的类质同像矿物、自然铋及核燃料氧化物。  相似文献   

A Review of “Renewable Energy Project Development Under the Clean Development Mechanism: A Guide for Latin America”     

Mary Finley-Brook 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(4):557-559

Books reviewed in this article:

Kurt E. Engelmann and Vjeran Pavlakovic (eds.), Rural Development in Eurasia and the Middle East: Land Reform, Demographic Change, and Environmental Constraints

Gregory C. Randall, America's Original GI Town: Park Forest, Illinois

John B. Rehder, Delta Sugar: Louisiana's Vanishing Plantation Landscape

Cathy D. Knepper, Greenbelt, Maryland: A Living Legacy of the New Deal

Char Miller (ed.), Fluid Arguments: Five Centuries of Western Water Conflict

Edward F. Bergman, The Spiritual Traveler: New York City: The Guide to Sacred Spaces and Peaceful Places

Rachel Pain, Michael Barke, Duncan Fuller, Jamie Gough, Robert MacFarlane, and Graham Mowl, Introducing Social Geographies

Tor A. Benjaminsen, and Christian Lund, (eds.), Politics, Property, and Production in the West African Sahel: Understanding Natural Resources Management

Al Gedicks, Resource Rebels: Native Challenges to Mining and Oil Corporations

Maryann P. Feldman and Nadine Massard (eds.), Institutions and Systems in the Geography of Innovation

Richard Foglesong, Married to the Mouse: Walt Disney World and Orlando

Annick Germain, and Damaris Rose, Montréal: The Quest for a Metropolis

George F. Rengert, Mark T. Mattson, and Kristin D. Henderson, Campus Security: Situational Crime Prevention in High–Density Environments

Vaclav Smil, Feeding the World: A Challenge for the Twenty–First Century

Pu Miao (ed.), Public Places in Asia Pacific Cities: Current Issues and Strategies

Lisa M. Benton and John Rennie Short (eds.), Environmental Discourse and Practice: A Reader

Philip Scranton (ed.), The Second Wave: Southern Industrialization from the 1940s to the 1970s

Barry Dalal–Clayton and David Dent, Knowledge of the Land: Land Resources Information and Its Use in Rural Development  相似文献   

欧盟碳减排目标的经济可能性评估     

石莹  刘昌新  吴静  王铮 《世界地理研究》2013,(3):18-29

经济发展与能源消耗有着密切的关系,文章通过选取1994年至2009年欧盟27国的人口、经济和能源数据,利用碳排放动力学模型对欧盟关于2050年前削减温室气体排放80-95%的承诺进行预测,并对欧盟目标下的减排情景进行了分析。结果表明：（1）以当前的技术进步速率下,沿最优平稳经济增长路线,到2050年欧盟的碳排放量将为775.608MtC,达不到预定的减排要求;（2）在最优经济增长速度得出总能源消费量的基础上,采用调整能源结构与碳捕捉技术,预期可以达到设定减排80%的任务。其每一期的煤炭占比、石油占比、天然气占比应分别有4%、2.26%、1.23%转移至非碳能源占比,非碳能源的上升速率应达到2.21%/年;（3）若以历史的能源结构转移趋势预测未来的能源结构占比,即使考虑能源利用效率和碳捕捉技术的预期目标,欧盟仍然达不到在2050年的减排目标;（4）考虑欧盟提出的四种减排路径上下限组合,可预计出到2050年欧盟的减排范围在80.51%-87.16%;（5）若欧盟重振工业（特别是制造业）,即使考虑欧盟制定的减排路径,仍存在着达不到减排预期的可能。  相似文献   

中国能源消费增长特征及影响因素分析     

姜巍  高卫东 《世界地理研究》2013,(3):160-168

以煤炭消费为主、总量增长迅速、结构演进缓慢、使用效率低下使得中国目前能源消费调控问题面临诸多困难。本文使用多元回归模型和通径分析法确定了中国能源消费增长的主要因子及各因子的作用机理,结果发现：影响中国能源消费的主要因素按照影响程度依次为经济增长、城市化水平、对外贸易、人口总量、能源消费结构及能源利用效率,其中经济增长、人口规模扩大是直接推动中国能源消费增长的原因,而城市化水平和对外贸易规模则通过间接作用推动能源消费增长,能源消费结构的改善和能源利用效率的提高表面上看起来会引发能源消费增加,但是其间接影响都是负的,从而使得这两个因素整体上表现为减缓了能源消费增长。  相似文献   

Seismic response of steel structures with seesaw systems using viscoelastic dampers     

Jae‐Do Kang  Hiroshi Tagawa 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(5):779-794

Vibration control systems are being used increasingly worldwide to provide enhanced seismic protection for new and retrofitted buildings. This paper presents a new vibration control system on the basis of a seesaw mechanism with viscoelastic dampers. The proposed vibration control system comprises three parts: brace, seesaw member, and viscoelastic dampers. In this system, only tensile force appears in bracing members. Consequently, the brace buckling problem is negligible, which enables the use of steel rods for bracing members. By introducing pre‐tension in rods, long steel rods are applicable as bracing between the seesaw members and the moment frame connections over some stories. Seesaw mechanisms can magnify the damper deformation according to the damper system configuration. In this paper, first, the magnification factor, that is, the ratio of the damper deformation to the story drift, is delivered, which includes the rod deformation. Results of a case study demonstrate that the magnification factor of the proposed system is greater than unity for some cases. Seismic response analysis is conducted for steel moment frames with the proposed vibration control system. Energy dissipation characteristics are examined using the time‐history response results of energy. The maximum story drift angle distributions and time‐history response results of displacement show that the proposed system can reduce the seismic response of the frames effectively. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analytical and experimental investigations on seismic performance of exterior beam–column subassemblages of existing RC‐framed building     

Saptarshi Sasmal  K. Ramanjaneyulu  Balthasar Novák  N. Lakshmanan 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(12):1785-1805

Seismic performance of exterior beam–column subassemblages of reinforced concrete structure designed and detailed on the basis of the provisions of Eurocode and Indian Standards at different stages of their evolution is evaluated. Performance of the subassemblages designed and detailed according to the three different stages of codal evolution (gravity load design, ‘Nonductile’, and ‘Ductile’) is evaluated through analytical formulations and experimental investigations. In the ‘NonDuctile’ specimens, it has been observed that the shear distortion and degradation in stiffness and strength are significantly high. Performance of the ‘Ductile’ specimens based on Eurocode and Indian Standards is almost similar in terms of strength and stiffness degradation. Nevertheless, the specimen designed on the basis of Indian Standard shows higher energy dissipation at a given drift ratio. In the analytical study, shear and flexural failure of members of subassemblage and shear failure of the joint are considered as possible modes of failure of the beam–column subassemblage. For evaluating the shear strength of the joint region, a soften strut‐and‐tie model is used. Analytically obtained strengths based on the failure criteria of different components of the specimens have been first validated with experimental results and then used to determine the strength of the specimens. The investigation could indicate even the mode of failure at local level. It is utmost important to mention here that even the ductile specimens dissipate most of the energy through the development of damage in the joint region, which is neither desirable nor safe for the stability of whole structure. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献