Seasonal and sunspot-cycle changes in the day-to-day variability of Sq     

D. M. Schlapp  E. C. Butcher 《Geophysical Journal International》1995,120(1):173-185

  相似文献   

Issues of Spatial and Temporal Variability in Climate Impact Studies     

Gregory J. Carbone 《The Professional geographer》1995,47(1):30-40

The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances.  相似文献   

Variation among fossil chironomid assemblages in surficial sediments of Bodensee-Untersee (SW-Germany): implications for paleolimnological interpretation     

Alexandra Schmäh 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,9(2):99-108

In paleolimnology, subfossil head capsules of chironomids play an important role as ecological indicators of lake history. It is important to determine, therefore, whether fossil assemblages are representative of former biocoenoses. There is evidence that headcapsules washed in from other places can make up a significant percentage of the total. As interpretations are usually drawn from the examination of a single core, it is of special interest to know whether a fossil assemblage of a single site properly reflects limnological conditions of the whole lake. This study examined the taxonomic distribution of subfossil chironomids in the surficial sediments of the Bodensee-Untersee, with the aim of assessing the variability in chironomid assemblages. Apparently, most of the head capsules of the profundal fossil assemblages in the Untersee had been washed in from the littoral zone or from the slope. Although the Bodensee-Untersee is a rather large lake, variability is surprisingly low among all samples. Therefore a correct interpretation from a single core may be possible.  相似文献   

Spatial uniformity of sediment accumulation in varved lake sediments in northern Sweden     

G. Petterson  I. Renberg  P. Geladi  A. Lindberg  F. Lindgren 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,9(3):195-208

As part of an investigation aimed at assessing the potential of northern Swedish varved lake sediments for fine-resolution reconstruction of past climatic conditions, the following questions were addressed; how representative is a single core, does the appearance of varves change as the sediment ages, and how can varve thickness and within-varve structures be digitized? Analyses of replicate cores from Kassjön, using sample sequences of seasonal, annual and centennial time resolution, show that spatial variability of sediment accumulation in the varved sediment is very low. Comparisons of intensity curves from image analysis of freeze cores of recent sediments from Lake Nylandssjön, sampled in 1980 and 1985, indicate that the varves acquire their appearance at the sediment-water interface during sedimentation and that the varve structures are preserved during diagenetic processes. Measurement of varve thicknesses with a tree-ring microscope and with image analysis gave similar results. However, with image analysis, within-varve structures such as colour variations and thicknesses of seasonal layers, can also be recorded, increasing the possibilities for palaeolimnological and palaeoclimatic inferences.  相似文献   

Hydraulics of sediment-laden sheetflow and the influence of simulated rainfall   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

B. T. Gut  W. T. Dickinson  R. P. Rudra  G. J. Wall 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1990,15(2):101-118

Laminar sheetflows, transporting sediment at their capacity rates, both with and without rainfall disturbance, were investigated. Values of flow depth and relative submergence were very small. In the flows without rainfall, measured velocities exceeded the predictions of the smooth-surface, clear-water laminar model by an average of 12 per cent. Reduced flow resistance due to high sediment concentrations may explain this result. Velocities in the rainfall-disturbed flows were not significantly different from the predictions of the smooth-surface, clear-water model, and the velocity reduction due to rainfall was about 12 per cent. Although the uniformity of rainfall intensity under the single-nozzle rainfall simulator is high, variation of momentum and kinetic energy fluxes along the 1-5 m long flume was significant. The rainfall angle of incidence was highly correlated with deviations from expected flow velocities in the upper and lower sections of the flume.  相似文献   

近30年来中国气候的干湿变化   总被引：27，自引：1，他引：27  

张庆云  陈烈庭 《大气科学》1991,15(5):72-81

本文利用1951—1980年的月平均温度,计算了中国各地水分需要量。根据水分需要量和降水量大小,将我国划分成潮湿、湿润、半湿润、半干燥和干燥5类气候区;并对这5个气候区1950年前后各30年时段的气候干湿状况进行讨论;此外还对影响气候干湿变化的重要因子,我国近30年来的降水进行了分析。 近3O多年来,各气候区的降水及气候状况呈现了不同的变化:潮湿和湿润气候区50年代降水较多,60年代降水偏少,70年代降水呈多变态;半湿润和半干燥气候区50年代至60年代中期为多雨时段,1965年始,降水偏少,处于少雨阶段,  相似文献   

Relationships among dissolved organic matter,iron, and discharge in a moorland stream     

Ian C. Grieve 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1984,9(1):35-41

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) and iron in a moorland stream were determined at 8-hour intervals over a 6-month period to examine relationships with streamflow. Regression of both solutes on discharge were positive and explained 50–70 per cent of the variance in the solute data, but better predictions were obtained in both cases when a covariate reflecting temporal variation in the relationships was introduced (explained variance 80–90 per cent). Variations in the regression of Fe on DOM were also identified, indicating differences in the complexing power of DOM for Fe and possible variations in the chemical composition of the DOM.  相似文献   

Spatial variability in soil moisture as predicted from airborne thematic mapper (ATM) data     

Donald A. Davidson  Alistair I. Watson 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1995,20(3):219-230

In the first part of this project, the extent to which moisture content of alluvial soils could be predicted from imagery derived from an airborne thematic mapper (ATM) was investigated. From sampling done on the same day as the flight, it was found that digital numbers derived from the thermal channel (waveband 11) were strongly correlated with gravimetric moisture content. From sampling three fields of contrasting land cover, the relationship between waveband 11 values and moisture content was found to be independent of land cover type. Spatial variation in waveband 11 values and thus moisture content were related to palaeochannel patterns on the alluvial land. This was investigated by deriving variograms for long transects from each of the three investigated fields. The range and sills of the variograms are shown to express the nature and pattern of palaeochannels. By the application of such geostatistical techniques, high resolution imagery can thus be used to quantify palaeochannel characteristics on alluvial land.  相似文献   

热带太平洋海表温度年际变化对降水季节内振荡的影响   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Li Wei  Yu Rucong  Zhang Xuehong 《大气科学进展》2001,18(3):429-444

根据 １９８２—１９９２年期间的日平均 ＭＳＵ（Ｓｐｅｎｃｅｒ, １９９３）海洋降水和 ５天平均的ＣＭＡＰ（Ｘｉｅ＆ Ａｒｋｉｎ, １９９７）降水观测资料,分析了热带太平洋大气季节内振荡（ＭＪＯ）的年际变化特征。在太平洋海表温度（ＳＳＴ）年际变化的正常年份（１９８２—８３年, １９８６—８８年, １９９１—９２年）,均有明显的ＭＪＯ信号传到日界线以东并在中、东太平洋维持数月。热带ＭＪＯ活动强度的年际变化与局地ＳＳＴ的变化存在正相关。中、东太平洋降水的季节内振荡的年际变化与热带太平洋ＳＳＴ的最强正相关在Ｎｉｎｏ３区附近。以观测ＳＳＴ场强迫ＣＣＭ３大气模式的数值试验基本上真实地再现了１１年期间热带太平洋降水季节内振荡的年际变化总趋势,但模拟季节内振荡的强度较观测平均偏弱。对比分别采用周平均和月平均ＳＳＴ强迫场的积分结果,发现在中、东太平洋,二个积分模拟的降水季节内振荡强度的年际变化接近并且趋势与观测基本一致,而在西太平洋二个积分的模拟结果差别较大。这表明在热带中、东太平洋,ＳＳＴ强迫的年际变化对ＭＪＯ强度的变化有强的制约。而在ＭＪＯ总体活跃的热带西太平洋,ＳＳＴ强迫场的季节变化对模拟ＭＪＯ活动也有较大影响。ＣＣＭ３模拟  相似文献   

Forecasting extreme events in the tropical Indian Ocean sector climate     

Roxana C. Wajsowicz   《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2005,39(1-2):137

Prospects for forecasting climate variability over the tropical Indian Ocean sector, specifically extreme positive events of the Indian Dipole Mode (IDM), with lead times of a season or more are investigated using the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) coupled-model system. The coupled system presents biases in its climatology over the Indian Ocean sector, which include (i) warmest sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) occurring in the central equatorial basin rather than on the eastside with the eastern (western) tropical SSTs up to 1 °C too cool (warm), (ii) a too northwest lying InterTropical Convergence Zonal over the ocean in boreal fall, (iii) a thermocline shallower (deeper) than observed west of Sumatra-Java (north of Madagascar), (iv) a delay of about a month in the onset (cessation) of the southwest (southeast) monsoon in the west (east) in boreal spring (fall). These biases affect the effectiveness of the SST-clouds-shortwave radiation negative feedback, the sensitivity of SST to wind-stress perturbations, and the character of equatorial coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Despite these biases, ensemble hindcasts of the SST anomalies averaged over the eastern and western poles of the IDM for the decade 1993–2002, which included extreme positive events in 1994 and 1997/1998, are encouragingly good at 3-months lead. The onset of the 1997/1998-event is delayed by about a month, though the peak and decay are correctly timed. At 6-months lead-time, the forecast at the eastern pole deteriorates with either positive or negative false alarms generated each boreal fall. The forecast at the western pole remains good.  相似文献