Long-term prediction of intermediate depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean region based on a time-predictable model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

B. C. Papazachos 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(3):211-218

Repeat times of strong intermediate depth (60 km h 180 km) earthquakes have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for six seismogenic sources in the Benioff zone of the southern Aegean area. For four of these sources, at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these four sources, the following relation has been determined: logT _t = 0.20M _min + 0.19M _p +a, whereT _t is the repeat time (in years),M _min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered,M _p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock and a parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.91 was determined for this relation, which indicates that the time predictable model holds to a satisfactory degree for the strong mainshocks of intermediate focal depth in the southern Aegean.By assuming that the ratioT/T _t, whereT is the observed andT _t the calculated repeat time, follows a lognormal distribution, the conditional probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M _s 6.5) and very strong (M _s 7.5) earthquakes during the period 1991–2001 in these four seismogenic sources have been calculated. These probabilities are very high (P > 0.9) for the strong and high (P > 0.5) for the very strong intermediate depth earthquakes which occur in the three sources of the shallower (h < 100 km) part of the Benioff zone where coupling occurs between the front parts of the Mediterranean lithosphere (downgoing) and the Aegean lithosphere.  相似文献   

Modeling the cyclic swelling pressure of mudrock using artificial neural networks     

M. Moosavi  M.J. Yazdanpanah  R. Doostmohammadi 《Engineering Geology》2006,87(3-4):178-194

The stochastic nature of the cyclic swelling behavior of mudrock and its dependence on a large number of interdependent parameters was modeled using Time Delay Neural Networks (TDNNs). This method has facilitated predicting cyclic swelling pressure with an acceptable level of accuracy where developing a general mathematical model is almost impossible. A number of total pressure cells between shotcrete and concrete walls of the powerhouse cavern at Masjed–Soleiman Hydroelectric Powerhouse Project, South of Iran, where mudrock outcrops, confirmed a cyclic swelling pressure on the lining since 1999. In several locations, small cracks are generated which has raised doubts about long term stability of the powerhouse structure. This necessitated a study for predicting future swelling pressure. Considering the complexity of the interdependent parameters in this problem, TDNNs proved to be a powerful tool. The results of this modeling are presented in this paper.  相似文献   

时间序列转折突变点检测的线性函数方法   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：6  

曹杰  陶云  田永丽 《高原气象》2002,21(5):518-521

根据转折突变的定义，在引入线性半截多项式的前提下，提出检测时间序列转折突变点的一种新方法。此方法不仅能找出时间序列中存在的多个转折突变点，而且使得检测到的突变点通过统计显著性检验。应用此方法对北半球1851—1990年年平均气温距平及其11年滑动平均序列，1901—1999年昆明5月降水及其11年滑动平均的降水序列分别进行了检测。发现北半球年平均气温距平在1879、1889、1939和1973年附近出现了年际转折突变，在1878、1888和1941年以及1972年出现了年代际尺度的转折突变；昆明5月雨量不存在年际转折突变点，但昆明5月雨量在1918、1966以及1978年附近出现了年代际尺度转折突变。  相似文献   

长江日流量混沌变化特性研究——Ⅰ相空间嵌入滞时的确定   总被引：26，自引：3，他引：26       下载免费PDF全文

丁晶  王文圣  赵永龙 《水科学进展》2003,14(4):407-411

为了以新途径探索长江水量变化规律并在此基础上做出预测,全面而系统地研究了宜昌站日流量混沌变化特性并建立了新预测模型.重点论述相空间嵌入滞时的确定.分析了传统的自相关函数法和真实矢量场法确定嵌入滞时的优劣,并提出以广义相关函数合理确定嵌入滞时的方法.研究结果表明广义相关函数法是一个合理又可操作的途径.  相似文献   

Predictive instantaneous optimal control of elastic structures during earthquakes     

Kevin K. F. Wong  Rong Yang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(14):2161-2177

A predictive instantaneous optimal control (PIOC) algorithm is proposed for controlling the seismic responses of elastic structures. This algorithm compensates for the time delay that happens in practical control applications by predicting the structural response over a period that equals the time delay, and by substituting the predicted response in the instantaneous optimal control (IOC) algorithm. The unique feature of this proposed PIOC algorithm is that it is simple and at the same time compensates for the time delay very effectively. Numerical examples of single degree of freedom structures are presented to compare the performance of PIOC and IOC systems for various time delay magnitudes. Results show that a time delay always causes degradation of control efficiency, but PIOC can greatly reduce this degradation compared to IOC. The effects of the structure's natural periods and the choice of control gains on the degradation induced by the time delay are also analyzed. Results show that shorter natural periods and larger control gains are both more sensitive and more serious to the degradation of control efficiency. Finally, a practical application of PIOC is performed on a six‐story moment‐resisting steel frame. It is demonstrated that PIOC contributes significantly to maintain stability in multiple degree of freedom structures, and at the same time PIOC has a satisfactory control performance. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Predictive instantaneous optimal control of inelastic structures during earthquakes     

Kevin K. F. Wong  Rong Yang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(14):2179-2195

A new inelastic structural control algorithm is proposed by incorporating the force analogy method (FAM) with the predictive instantaneous optimal control (PIOC) algorithm. While PIOC is very effective in compensating for the time delay for elastic structures, the FAM is highly efficient in performing the inelastic analysis. Unlike conventional inelastic analysis methods of changing stiffness, the FAM analyzes structures by varying the structural displacement field, and therefore the state transition matrix needs to be computed only once. This greatly simplifies the computation and makes inelastic analysis readily applicable to the PIOC algorithm. The proposed algorithm compensates for the time delay that happens in practical control systems by predicting the inelastic structural response over a period that equals the magnitude of the time delay. A one‐story frame with both strain‐hardening and strain‐softening inelastic characteristics is analyzed using this algorithm. Results show that the proposed control algorithm is feasibile for any inelastic structures. While the control efficiency deteriorates with the increase in magnitude of the time delay, the PIOC maintains acceptable performance within a wide range of time delay magnitudes. Finally, a computer model of a six‐story moment‐resisting steel frame is analyzed to show that PIOC has good control results for real inelastic structures. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

无验潮模式下的GPS水下地形测量技术   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

马小计  何义斌  赵建虎 《测绘科学》2003,28(2):29-30,34

传统的水下地形测量模式定型于利用GPS测定水底点的平面位置,利用测深仪测定水底点的深度,附之以瞬时潮位资料,获得点位的高程。这种模式在上述条件具备的情况下,可取得完满的结果。但当验潮条件不具备时,该模式将不能获得测点的高程。为了弥补这一缺陷,简化工作流程,提高水下地形测量的精度,本文提出了一种无验潮模式下的水下地形测量思想,该思想不用专门测定潮位,而直接利用GPS的RTK测量技术,辅之以姿态测量和补偿,从而获得高精度的水底点高程。该方法被验证是正确的,希望进一步推广应用。  相似文献   

VLBI观测的电离层延迟改正模型研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

张捍卫  盘关松等 《测绘学院学报》2003,20(1):14-17,21

电离层是大气层中的一个电离区域，高度范围大约在60－1000km。电磁波信号穿越电离层时其传播速度会发生变化，传播路径也会略微发生弯曲，从而使信号的传播时间乘以在真空中的光速不等于信号源至测站的几何距离。对VLBI观测来讲，电离层引起的差异可达近百米百米。文中从电磁波的传播原理出发，讨论了信号传播速度和传播路径变化引起的VLBI观测延迟；对目前采用的各种电离层延迟模型进行了分析总结；并指出单频率VLBI观测应顾及高阶项和路径弯曲的影响或使用区域性电离层延迟改正模型。  相似文献   

根据激光雷达观测结果研究中国武汉地区钠层的分布   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

杨国韬  刘炳模  王嘉珉  傅利平  徐寄遥  程学武  万卫星  龚顺生 《地球物理学报》2003,46(5):577-583

通过大量钠层荧光激光雷达观测数据的分析研究，给出我国武汉地区钠层平均分布形态的基本特征. 结合钠层模型分析，指出大气微量元素分布的纬度变化可能是导致不同纬度地区钠层平均分布形态差异的主要原因,同时给出武汉地区随季节变化的钠层平均分布形态. 对武汉地区钠层分布形态时间变化的分析，发现其短期变化与重力波活动及夜间变化与潮汐波活动相关.  相似文献   

时间域航空电磁法一维正演研究   总被引：15，自引：6，他引：15       下载免费PDF全文

罗延钟  张胜业  王卫平 《地球物理学报》2003,46(5):719-724

基于电磁勘探理论，导出了层状大地条件下时间域航空电磁法（偶极-偶极装置）的正演计算公式和算法，编制了相应的计算机程序，对若干典型地电断面作了正演计算. 计算结果说明时间域航空电磁法的探测能力和探测条件，进而为时间域直升机航空电磁系统的设计方案提供了依据.  相似文献