藉物理耗散技术改进强降水数值模拟的初步研究     

刘英  柳崇健  徐辉  赵永明 《高原气象》2006,25(4):651-657

利用PSU/NCAR非静力中尺度模式MM5V3,对影响我国北方一次非汛期突发性强降水过程实例,进行了三重嵌套模式区域采用若干不同降水方案(特别是采用显式微物理方案与积云对流参数化方案若干组合)的对比试验,在揭示物理耗散技术正是通过将模式水平扩散方案纠正到符合热力学第二定律的约束而使该中尺度模式的模拟精度和模拟质量获得明显提高的物理实质的同时,从一个侧面证实了数值模式引入第二定律对提高数值天气预报准确率的重要性。  相似文献   

基于CMIP6强迫模拟分析人为气溶胶的气候效应(一)——介绍NUIST模式评估结果          下载免费PDF全文

史湘军  沈沛洁  朱寿鹏  吉璐莹  张海鹏  刘娇娇  陈伯民  李震坤 《大气科学学报》2020,43(3):506-515

为减少不同气候模式评估气溶胶气候效应的差异,第六次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)直接给定了人为气溶胶强迫数据。因此,有必要基于此强迫数据重新评估气溶胶气候效应。本研究首先将CMIP6给出的描述人为气溶胶强迫的模块引入南京信息工程大学(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,NUIST)的地球系统模式(The NUIST Earth System Model,NESM)。之后,利用NESM模式评估地球辐射收支平衡对此人为气溶胶强迫的响应,并分析模式模拟结果的不确定性。评估给出的人为气溶胶有效辐射强迫为-0. 45(±0. 28) W·m~(-2)。其中,气溶胶直接辐射效应为-0. 34(±0. 01) W·m~(-2),与第二次气溶胶比较计划(The second phase of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and M odels,Aero ComⅡ)的评估结果基本一致;气溶胶对云辐射强迫的影响(包括半直接效应和间接效应)为-0. 10(±0. 30) W·m~(-2),明显受到模式内部变率的干扰,具有较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

全球增暖1.5/2℃下中国区域极端降水的风险变化及其影响因子          下载免费PDF全文

朱连华  祝颖锜  姚壹壹  石晨  徐凡然  赵暐昊  江志红 《大气科学学报》2023,46(1):97-109

利用24个CMIP6全球气候模式的逐日降水模拟资料,基于广义极值分布(GEV)模型,研究了全球增暖1.5/2℃下我国20、50和100 a重现期极端降水的未来风险变化。可以发现,相对于历史时期(1995—2014年),全球升温1.5和2℃下极端降水发生概率风险空间分布相近,总体上呈现增加趋势,但额外增暖0.5℃将导致更高的风险。如50 a重现期极端降水,在增暖1.5/2℃下其重现期将分别变为17/14 a,极端降水将变得更加频繁。不同区域对气候变暖的响应存在区域差异,其中中国西部长江黄河中上游和青藏高原地区、中国东部长江黄河中下游及其以南地区,极端降水发生概率比达到3以上,局部更是达到5以上,为我国极端降水气候变化响应高敏感区域。进一步,基于概率分布函数从理论角度探讨了位置和尺度参数对发生概率风险的影响与贡献度量,并用于探讨极端降水气候平均态和变率变化对极端降水发生风险的影响,结果显示：位置和尺度参数的增量变化、风险变化率存在着显著的东西部差异,从而导致极端降水发生风险的影响因素存在差异。如中国西部尽管极端降水气候平均态和变率变化幅度不大,但因风险变化率较高,从而导致该区域的发生风险大...  相似文献   

Improvement of Soil Moisture Simulation in Eurasia by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model from CMIP5 to CMIP6     

Yinghan SANG  Hong-Li REN  Xueli SHI  Xiaofeng XU  Haishan CHEN 《大气科学进展》2021,38(2):237-252

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基础地理信息网络化数据生产的设计与实现     

赵鹏程  俞志强 《地理空间信息》2006,4(4):46-48

针对目前数据采集与管理的现状运用具体实例论述了基于网络化数据生产的设计与实现过程  相似文献   

Soil moisture retrieval from satellite images and its application to heavy rainfall simulation in eastern China   总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3  

赵得明  苏炳凯  赵鸣 《大气科学进展》2006,23(2):299-316

The soil water index (SWI) from satellite remote sensing and the observational soil moisture from agricultural meteorological stations in eastern China are used to retrieve soil moisture. The analysis of correlation coefficient (CORR), root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and bias (BIAS) shows that the retrieved soil moisture is convincible and close to the observation. The method can overcome the difficulties in soil moisture observation on a large scale and the retrieved soil moisture may reflect the distribution of the real soil moisture objectively. The retrieved soil moisture is used as an initial scheme to replace initial conditions of soil moisture (NCEP) in the model MM5V3 to simulate the heavy rainfall in 1998. Three heavy rainfall processes during 13–14 June, 18–22 June, and 21–26 July 1998 in the Yangtze River valley are analyzed. The first two processes show that the intensity and location of simulated precipitation from SWI are better than those from NCEP and closer to the observed values. The simulated heavy rainfall for 21–26 July shows that the update of soil moisture initial conditions can improve the model’s performance. The relationship between soil moisture and rainfall may explain that the stronger rainfall intensity for SWI in the Yangtze River valley is the result of the greater simulated soil moisture from SWI prior to the heavy rainfall date than that from NCEP, and leads to the decline of temperature in the corresponding area in the heavy rainfall days. Detailed analysis of the heavy rainfall on 13–14 June shows that both land-atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation were responsible for the heavy rainfall, and it shows how the SWI simulation improves the simulation. The development of mesoscale systems plays an important role in the simulation regarding the change of initial soil moisture for SWI.  相似文献   

Stream formation in W Serpentis-type binaries     

V. G. Karetnikov  E. V. Menchenkova  V. V. Nazarenko 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1995,316(3):163-169

By the method proposed by Nazarenko (1993) and using observational data obtained by different authors, the physical conditions in the stream in the neighbourhood of the inner Lagrangian point L₁ were calculated for three interacting binary systems of W Ser-type: β Lyr, V367 Cyg, RY Sct. It is shown, that as a result of the evolutional expansion of the mass losing component the deep layers of its atmosphere reach the neighbourhood of the first Lagrangian point L₁ and a stream of axial symmetric shape is formed. Its radius is comparable to the dimension of the mass losing component. The rate of the mass transfer increases up to 10⁻⁵ M_⊙/yr. The calculated parameters of the stream in the neighbourhood of the point L₁ explain the main observational properties of the investigated systems (existence of extended circumstellar matter with a developed structure, high mass transfer rate).  相似文献   

Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5℃-5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Guwei ZHANG  Gang ZENG  Xiaoye YANG  Zhihong JIANG 《大气科学进展》2021,38(2):253-267

Extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming.Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds(1.5℃-5℃).The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels(1861-1900)under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5),and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.Under SSP5-8.5,global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100,while under SSP1-2.6,it will stabilize around 2℃ after 2050.In China,most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China(Northwest China,North China and Northeast China),covering 50%-70%of the country.Furthermore,about 0.19-0.44 billion people(accounting for 16%-41%of the national population)will experience warming above the global average.Compared to present-day(1995-2014),the warmest day(TXx)will increase most notably in northern China,while the number of warm days(TX90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)will increase most profoundly in southern China.For example,relative to the present-day,TXx will increase by 1℃-5℃ in northern China,and TX90p(WSDI)will increase by 25-150(10-80)days in southern China at 1.5℃-5℃ global warming.Compared to 2℃-5℃,limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%-87%of the EHT increases in China.  相似文献   

Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region     

YanRan Lü  Tong Jiang  YanJun Wang  BuDa Su  JinLong Huang  Hui Tao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):389-403

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   

螺旋藻多糖对肿瘤细胞生长及Hela细胞早期凋亡作用的实验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

于红  吕锐  张学成 《海洋科学》2008,32(1):38-40

采用MTT法(四甲基偶氮唑盐比色法)研究了钝顶螺旋藻多糖(PSP)对Hela细胞及HepG2细胞生长的抑制作用。结果表明,随PSP浓度及培养时间的增加,肿瘤细胞存活率逐渐降低,抑制率逐渐增加,以PSP40 mg/L作用72 h最为显著。应用Annexin V/PI双染色流式细胞仪检测了早期Hela细胞凋亡,未经PSP处理的正常Hela细胞凋亡细胞极少,经PSP处理的细胞,凋亡细胞的百分比明显高于正常对照组,其作用随着剂量的增加和时间的延长而增强,具有量效关系和时效关系。结果说明PSP的抗肿瘤机制,除了诱导肿瘤细胞凋亡,还存在细胞毒性等其他机制,是多种机制共同作用的结果。  相似文献