The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage     

Michael Crozier  John McClure  Jessica Vercoe  Marc Wilson 《Area》2006,38(2):143-152

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.  相似文献   

Basin-related effects on ground motion for earthquake scenarios in the Lower Rhine Embayment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael Ewald  Heiner Igel  Klaus-Günter Hinzen  Frank Scherbaum 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):197-212

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Late Holocene linkages between decade–century scale climate variability and productivity at Lake Tanganyika, Africa     

Andrew S. Cohen  Kiram E. Lezzar  Julia Cole  David Dettman  Geoffrey S. Ellis  Meagan Eagle Gonneea  Pierre-Denis Plisnier  Victor Langenberg  Maarten Blaauw  Derrick Zilifi 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(2):189-209

Microlaminated sediment cores from the Kalya slope region of Lake Tanganyika provide a near-annually resolved paleoclimate record between ∼∼2,840 and 1,420 cal. yr B.P. demonstrating strong linkages between climate variability and lacustrine productivity. Laminae couplets comprise dark, terrigenous-dominated half couplets, interpreted as low density underflows deposited from riverine sources during the rainy season, alternating with light, planktonic diatomaceous ooze, with little terrigenous component, interpreted as windy/dry season deposits. Laminated portions of the studied cores consist of conspicuous dark and light colored bundles of laminae couplets. Light and dark bundles alternate at decadal time scales. Within dark bundles, both light and dark half couplets are significantly thinner than within light bundles, implying slower sediment accumulation rates during both seasons over those intervals.Time series analyses of laminae thickness patterns demonstrate significant periodicities at interannual–centennial time scales. Longer time scale periodicities (multidecadal to centennial scale) of light and dark half couplet thicknesses are coherent and in some cases are similar to solar cycle periods on these time scales. Although laminae thickness cycles do not strongly covary with the actual Δ¹⁴C record for this same time period, two large Δ¹⁴C anomalies are associated with substantial decreases in both light and dark laminae thickness. In contrast to the multidecadal– centennial time scale, significant annual to decadal periodicities, which are broadly consistent with ENSO/PDO forcing and their impact on East African climate, are not coherent between light and dark half couplets. The coherency of light–dark couplets at decadal–centennial time scales, but not at shorter time scales, is consistent with a model of a long-term relationship between precipitation (recorded in wet season dark laminae thickness) and productivity (light laminae thickness), which is not manifest at shorter time scales. We hypothesize that this coupling results from long-term recharging of internal nutrient loading during wet periods (higher erosion of soil P) and reduced loading during drought intervals. The relationship is not expressed on short time scales during which the dominant control on productivity is wind-driven, dry season upwelling, which is uncorrelated with wet-season precipitation. Our record greatly extends the temporal record of this quasi-periodic behavior throughout the late Holocene and provides the first evidence linking decade- to century-scale episodes of enhanced productivity to enhanced precipitation levels and nutrient recharge in a productive tropical lake.  相似文献   

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast     

Mastura Mahmud  Robert S. Ross 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2006,27(2):176-190

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.  相似文献   

The Dahuiyeh (Zarand) earthquake of 2005 February 22 in central Iran: reactivation of an intramountain reverse fault   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

M. Talebian  J. Biggs  M. Bolourchi  A. Copley  A. Ghassemi  M. Ghorashi  J. Hollingsworth  J. Jackson  E. Nissen  B. Oveisi  B. Parsons  K. Priestley  A. Saiidi 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,164(1):137-148

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Probabilistic local waveform inversion for moment tensor and hypocentral location   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Zoltán Wéber 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,165(2):607-621

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Initiation and development of pull-apart basins with Riedel shear mechanism: insights from scaled clay experiments     

Nassima Atmaoui  Nina Kukowski  Bernhard Stöckhert  Diethard König 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(2):225-238

Typical pull-apart structures were created in scaled clay experiments with a pure strike-slip geometry (Riedel type experiments). A clay slab represents the sedimentary cover above a strike-slip fault in the rigid basement. At an early stage of the development of the deformation zone, synthetic shear fractures (Riedel shears) within the clay slab display dilatational behaviour. With increasing basal displacement the Riedel shears rotate and open further, developing into long, narrow and deep troughs. The shear displacement and the low angle with the prescribed principal basal fault set them apart from tension gashes. At a more evolved stage, synthetic segments (Y-shears) parallel to the basal principal fault develop and accommodate progressive strike-slip deformation. The Y-shears connect the tips of adjacent troughs developed from the earlier Riedel shears, resulting in the typical rhomb-shaped structures characteristic for pull-apart basins. The Strait of Sicily rift zone, with major strike-slip systems being active from the Miocene to the Present, comprises pull-apart basins at different length scales, for which the structural record suggests development by a mechanism similar to that observed in our experiments.  相似文献   

Lead, zinc, and antimony contamination of the Rio Chilco-Rio Tupiza drainage system, Southern Bolivia     

Lionel F. Villarroel  Jerry R. Miller  Paul J. Lechler  Dru Germanoski 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(2):283-299

An intense, but localized rainfall event in February 2003, led to the severe erosion and failure of a tailings disposal impoundment at the Abarόa Antimony Mine in southern Bolivia. The failure released approximately 5,500 m³ of contaminated tailings into the Rio Chilco-Rio Tupiza drainage system. The impacts of the event on sediment quality are examined and compared to contamination resulting from historic mining operations in the headwaters of the basin. Of primary concern are contaminated floodplain soils located along downstream reaches of the Rio Tupiza which were found to contain lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and antimony (Sb) concentrations that locally exceed Canadian, German, and Dutch guidelines for agricultural use. Spatial patterns in sediment-borne trace metal concentrations, combined with Pb isotopic data, indicate that Pb, Zn, and Sb are derived from three tributary basins draining the Abarόa, Chilcobija, and Tatasi-Portugalete mining districts. Downstream of each tributary, geographical patterns in trace metal concentrations reflect local geomorphic changes throughout the drainage system. Trace metal concentrations within the Rio Chilco decrease rapidly downstream as a result of dilution by uncontaminated sediments and storage of metal enriched particles (e.g., sulfide minerals) in the channel bed as a result of ongoing aggradation. Storage in the floodplains is limited. These processes significantly reduced the dispersal and, thus, the relative environmental affects of tailings eroded from the Abarόa Mine during the 2003 flood. In contrast, storage of Pb, Zn, and Sb in floodplains along the Rio Tupiza is significant, the majority of which is derived from historic mining operations, particularly mining within the Tatasi-Portugalete district.  相似文献   

The Earthquake Readiness Scale: The Development of a Valid and Reliable Unifactorial Measure     

Matthew J. Spittal  Frank H. Walkey  John McClure  Richard J. Siegert  Kimberley E. Ballantyne 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):15-29

Preparedness is a key dependent variable in many studies examining people’s response to disasters such as earthquakes. A feature of many studies on this issue, however, is the lack of attention given to psychometric issues when constructing measures of preparedness. With regard to earthquake preparation, for example, many studies could be greatly improved by the use of a valid and reliable measure of preparedness. This research developed such a measure that assessed both low-level preparedness, such as having an emergency kit, and high-level preparedness, such as altering home structures to mitigate damage. Studies of Wellington (New Zealand) residents using two samples totalling n=652 showed that 23 items measuring these different aspects of earthquake preparation could be combined into a reliable, valid, unifactorial scale. This brief scale should have utility in multivariate studies of earthquake preparation, either as a dependent variable, where preparation is the outcome variable of primary interest, or as one of several independent variables, where preparation and other measures predict another outcome variable.  相似文献   

Potential of High-Resolution Satellite Data in the Context of Vulnerability of Buildings   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

Marina Mueller  Karl Segl  Uta Heiden  Hermann Kaufmann 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):247-258

High-resolution space-borne remote sensing data are investigated for their potential to extract relevant parameters for a vulnerability analysis of buildings in European countries. For an evaluation of large earthquake scenarios, the number of parameters in models for vulnerability is reduced to a minimum of relevant information such as the type of building (age, material, number of storeys) and the geological and spatial context. Building-related parameters can be derived from remote sensing data either directly (e.g. height) or indirectly based on the recognition of the urban structure type in which the buildings are located. With the potential of a fully- or semi-automatic inventory of the buildings and their parameters, high-resolution satellite data and techniques for their processing are a useful supporting tool for the assessment of vulnerability.  相似文献