洞庭湖近30a水位时空演变特征及驱动因素分析   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

程俊翔  徐力刚  王青  鄢帮有  万荣荣  姜加虎  游海林 《湖泊科学》2017,29(4):974-983

洞庭湖地处北亚热带季风湿润气候区,水情时空变化尤为明显.为了探明洞庭湖水位时空演变特征,以洞庭湖6个水位站(城陵矶、鹿角、营田、杨柳潭、南咀、小河咀)、出入湖流量("三口"总入湖流量、"四水"总入湖流量、城陵矶出湖流量)和长江干流流量(宜昌、螺山)等1985-2014年逐日数据为基础,通过构建泰森多边形计算湖泊水位,运用Morlet小波分析、层次聚类分析和地统计理论研究湖泊水位的周期性变化规律及空间分布格局和自相关性.研究结果表明:洞庭湖水位变化具有典型的季节性,且年际变化具有28和22 a的多时间尺度特征;水位空间分布格局呈现出小河咀、南咀、杨柳潭(Group 1)以及城陵矶、鹿角、营田(Group 2)两种聚类,且在不同水文季节的空间自相关性依次表现为丰水期退水期涨水期枯水期.通过建立两类水位在不同水文季节与径流量的多元逐步回归模型揭示了洞庭湖水位时空演变的驱动因素,其中Group 1水位演变主要受长江干流水文情势的影响,Group 2水位演变由出入湖径流量和长江干流径流量共同作用,并随着不同水文季节江湖关系的改变以及湖泊自身水力联系的变化而变化.研究结果对于科学认识洞庭湖水位的时空演变规律以及湖泊生态系统保护和水资源的规划、管理与调控具有重要意义.  相似文献   

How much does an extreme rainfall event cost? Material damage and relationships between insurance,rainfall, land cover and urban flooding   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Miguel Leal  Inês Boavida-Portugal  Marcelo Fragoso  Catarina Ramos 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(6):673-689

This research aims to understand how insurance, rainfall, land cover and urban flooding are related and how these variables influenced the material damage in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) during the 2000–2011 period. Correlation coefficients show strong relationships between built-up areas and claims (0.94) and payouts (0.88). Despite no significant relationships being found between rainfall and the amount of material damage per event, three likelihood levels of flooding were determined for hourly rainfall. Unlike the studied period, the number of claims and their spatial distribution during the 2008 extreme rainfall event were strongly dependent on rainfall. Flooding related to the old watercourses assumed greater importance during this extreme event, recovering a more natural/ancient hydrological behaviour. In the LMA, the greatest material damage was the result of high-magnitude/low-probability rainfall events. Lower magnitude events can trigger numerous claims in heavily built-up areas, but they are hardly capable of producing large material damage.  相似文献   

基于ShakeMap_CNST的2017年精河6.6级地震灾害快速评估     

刘军  谭明  宋立军  郝婧  毕雪梅  王新刚  常想德 《中国地震》2019,35(2):381-388

基于考虑区域地震动衰减关系、场地效应及震中破裂等多因素的烈度快速评估模型,结合震害预测方法,研发了一套震害预测系统,并以2017年8月9日精河M_S6.6地震的震害预测为例,将对其的预测结果与当前主流系统进行对比。结果表明,采用ShakeMap_CNST系统能对地震的影响范围和烈度进行更为准确的估计,在人员伤亡、受灾人口估计、紧急安置人数及经济损失评估等方面,相对于其他系统,本系统的结果与现场调查的结果更为接近。  相似文献   

数字化水准仪应用于跨断层水准测量的性能分析     

代宪鹏  吴晓峰  宋浩  孙君嵩  范文华  张辉 《四川地震》2019,(2):35-38

跨断层水准观测是一种高精度的测量工作,对水准仪的精度、稳定性等方面提出了较高的要求,因此仪器老化所产生的仪器性能衰减成为行业内普遍关注的问题。本文分析了Trimble DiNi12型数字水准仪在整个生命周期中的第1年、第4年和第7年的产出数据,结果表明这种数字水准仪在使用的前期性能衰减快,中后期可保持相对稳定的状态。Trimble DiNi12型数字水准仪与Leica DNA03型数字水准仪分别投入使用的第1年内测段往返测闭合差表明,Trimble DiNi12型水准仪所能达到的实际精度优于Leica DNA03型水准仪。进一步分析可知,Trimble DiNi12型水准仪在稳定性上也有一定优势,这和实际的使用情况相符。  相似文献   

Late Quaternary paleo sea level geomorphological markers of opposite vertical movements at Salina volcanic island (Aeolian Arc)     

F. Lucchi  A. Ricchi  C. Romagnoli  D. Casalbore  R. Quartau 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(12):2377-2395

Raised marine terraces and submerged insular shelves are used through an integrated approach as markers of relative sea level changes along the flanks of the Salina volcanic island (Aeolian Arc, southern Italy) for the purpose of evaluating its crustal vertical deformation pattern through time. Paleo sea level positions are estimated for the terrace inner margins exposed subaerially at different elevations and the erosive shelf edges recognized offshore at different depths. Compared with the eustatic sea levels at the main highstands (for the terraces) and lowstands (for the shelf edges) derived from the literature, these paleo sea level markers allowed us to reconstruct the interplay among different processes shaping the flanks of the island and, in particular, to quantify the pattern, magnitudes and rates of vertical movements affecting the different sectors of Salina since the time of their formation. A uniform uplift process at rates of 0.35 m ka⁻¹ during the Last Interglacial is estimated for Salina (extended to most of the Aeolian Arc) as evidence of a regional (tectonic) vertical deformation affecting the sub-volcanic basement in a subduction-related geodynamic context. Before that, a dominant subsidence at rates of 0.39–0.56 m ka⁻¹ is instead suggested for the time interval between 465 ka (MIS 12) and the onset of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5.5, 124 ka). By matching the insular shelf edges with the main lowstands of the sea level curve, a relative age attribution is provided for the (mostly) submerged volcanic centres on which the deepest (and oldest) insular shelves were carved, with insights on the chronological development of the older stages of Salina and the early emergence of the island. The shift from subsidence to uplift at the Last Interglacial suggests a major geodynamic change and variation of the stress regime acting on the Aeolian sub-volcanic basement. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于GIS系统的城市震灾评估和救灾应急的研究          下载免费PDF全文

徐兰声 《地震工程学报》2019,41(2):507-512

地震防灾减灾能力是国家的重点需求,针对当前城市抗震应急存在的灵活性差问题,在过去研究的基础上,将GIS系统应用至城市抗震救灾应急响应中,建立的GIS系统利用地震灾害评估模块、数据库管理模块、地震应急响应和指挥决策模块构成城市抗震救灾应急响应框架,完成城市GIS系统的应用分析。地震灾害评估模块中计算震害总体损失、经济损失和生命损失,实现地震灾害评估信息数据的精确性采集;数据库管理模块中的抗灾救灾应急响应数据库主要利用矢量数据、数字正射影像数据和其他专题数据构成,完成一致性访问各种类型数据,提高城市抗震救灾应急响应灵活性;在响应与决策模块中利用核心服务器实现数据信息的上传下达,实现快速救援响应。研究中对这套GIS系统与当前方法做对比,进行抗震救灾过程灵活性、救援数据精准性的比较实验。实验对比结果表明,所提研究成果提供的救援数据精确性强,且运行过程中灵活系数等部分指标高于当前研究。  相似文献   

Seismic responses of postyield hardening single–degree-of-freedom systems incorporating high-strength elastic material     

Hanlin Qiang  Peng Feng  Zhe Qu 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(6):611-633

It is widely accepted that ductility design improves the seismic capacity of structures worldwide. Nevertheless, inelastic deformation allows serious damage to occur in structures. Previous studies have shown that a certain level of postyield stiffness may reduce both the peak displacement and residual deformation of a structure. In recent years, several high-strength elastic materials, such as fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) and high-strength steel bars, have been developed. Application of these materials can easily provide a structure with a much higher and more stable postyield stiffness. Many materials, members, and structures that incorporate both high-strength elastic materials and conventional materials show significant postyield hardening (PYH) behaviors. The significant postyield stiffness of PYH structures can help effectively reduce both peak and residual deformations, providing a choice when designing resilient structures. However, the findings of previous studies of structures with elastic-perfectly plastic (EPP) behavior or small postyield stiffness may not be accurate for PYH structures. The postyield stiffness of a structure must be considered an important primary structural parameter, in addition to initial stiffness, yielding strength, and ductility. In this paper, extensive time history and statistical analyses are carried out for PYH single–degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems. The mean values and coefficients of variation of the peak displacement and residual deformation are obtained and discussed. A new R-μ_p-T-α relationship and damage index for PYH structures are proposed. A theoretical model for the calculation of residual deformation is also established. These models provide a basis for developing the appropriate seismic design and performance evaluation procedures for PYH structures.  相似文献   

基于BIM的建筑地震受损程度评估模型设计          下载免费PDF全文

赵全斌  师煜  邹秋元  王成 《地震工程学报》2019,41(1):227-232

由于在变形和累积耗能的建筑地震受损程度评估模型,是将建筑划分为五个状态水平,未研究建筑环境性能,评估结果误差较大。因此设计基于BIM的建筑地震受损程度评估模型,采用基于BIM的建筑环境研究与评估方法,考虑建筑环境性能,基于这个思路,依据混凝土单轴Mazars损伤模型,获取三轴状态中的损伤演化方程,得到应变大于损伤阈值时损伤演化方程增量形式,构建混凝土损伤评估模型。经实验证明,所设计模型在地震峰值加速度小于0.31g时,建筑结构大致无缺,在峰值加速度是0.61g时,建筑地震受损指数超过0.8,建筑倒塌;所设计模型评估的平均误差低于0.03,平均评估时间是2.86 s,说明所设计模型能够有效评估建筑地震受损程度,且精度和效率较高。  相似文献   

九寨沟7.0级地震房屋震害现场调查及其破坏特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

张令心  朱柏洁  陶正如  陈相兆 《地震工程学报》2019,41(4):1053-1059

2017年8月8日四川省阿坝州九寨沟县发生7.0级地震,震源深度20 km,造成大量房屋不同程度的破坏,引发地质灾害。针对Ⅷ、Ⅸ区的337栋不同结构类型的房屋进行了震害特征分析,给出震害矩阵,揭示各类结构房屋的破坏机理。经过统计,所调查的房屋中3.3%的建筑保持完好,19.9%的建筑发生轻微破坏,51.3%的建筑发生中等破坏,21.1%的建筑发生严重破坏,4.5%的建筑发生毁坏。经过调查,钢筋混凝土框架结构、大跨度空间结构、钢框架结构以及采用木板作为填充墙的穿斗式木构架房屋在本次地震中表现良好。分析表明,经过合理的抗震设计,基本达到了中震可修的抗震设防目标,极大程度地保护了人们的生命及财产安全。  相似文献   

CTS-1E、CMG-3ESPC-120型地震计工作参数对比分析     

段绍鑫  乌尼尔  李晓东  张森  张小飞 《地震地磁观测与研究》2019,40(4):120-124

CTS-1E型、CMG-3ESPC-120型地震计安装架设在库尔勒地震台小泉沟观测点同一台基上,均使用EDAS-24GN型数据采集器进行实时数据采集,对比分析观测数据波形特征、地动噪声功率谱及动态范围等,明确2套地震计在实际观测中的性能差异,以便为地震监测数据分析及相关研究提供参考。  相似文献