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41.
从浙江省青田县某移民点泥石流发生的基本条件出发,对该区泥石流的发育阶段进行了分析;并计算了该区泥石流的危险度,预测了可爆发泥石流的危险范围。 相似文献
42.
2017年6月18日北京门头沟地区突发泥石流,造成6人伤亡。短时强降水是这起事件的主要诱发因素,但常规气象观测并没有很好地观测到此次降水过程,可见降水数据的准确性对于滑坡泥石流的实时预警及预报至关重要。近年来,卫星遥感估算降水发展迅速,WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting Model）模式关于降水的预报技巧也逐渐提高。本文以自动站降水资料为参考,首先利用定性方法和泰勒图、TS（Threat Score）评分等定量的方法比较了CMORPH（CPC MORPHing technique）、GPM（Global Precipitation Measurement）和PERSIANN-CCS（Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System）三种卫星降水资料以及不同起报时间的WRF预报降水对此次降水过程的表现能力,然后利用降水数据驱动滑坡泥石流统计预报模型,对此次事件进行了回报,分析不同降水数据在模型中的实际应用效果,最终为滑坡泥石流实时预警和预报系统的构建提供参考。结果表明,三种卫星降水资料基本上能反映出此次降水过程东北—西南向的带状空间分布形态,其中,CMORPH与自动站资料的空间相关性最好,命中率也最高,但对降水量有一定的高估,GPM对平均降水量的时间变化有较好的反映,体现了卫星降水在观测较少地区的良好利用价值,PERSIANN-CCS的表现则相对差些。WRF模式能预报出此次降水的带状空间分布特征,但降水中心的位置与实际有所偏差;此外,预报的最大降水量的峰值出现时间比实际上晚。由于此次降水的强局地性,只有空间分辨率均匀且质量相对较好的CMORPH卫星降水驱动模型可以回报出此次事件,而自动站点资料由于空间分布不均,则没有回报出此次事件,这表明了卫星降水在滑坡泥石流实时预警系统的构建中具有一定的优势。WRF模式降水驱动模型可以提前做出预警,虽然预报的事件发生时间与实际相比偏晚3~5 h,但WRF可以较好地预报72 h内的降水,因而可以延长灾害的可预见期。WRF模式预报降水的时间和空间精度都需要进一步提高,但是仍具有很好的参考意义。 相似文献
43.
泥石流沟道汇流对堆积危险范围影响的数值模拟研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用离散元法和图形处理器（GPU）并行计算手段建立泥石流运动堆积模型,以自然界沟道泥石流汇流后运动堆积特征及危险范围作为模拟参照,利用所构建的泥石流流通槽完成沟道泥石流不同交汇角汇流模拟试验和堆积危险范围预测,实现了泥石流沟道汇流的可视化模拟和数值模拟。试验结果表明,可视化模拟能够模拟出自然界中泥石流自流通区运动汇流后产生堆积的运动特征;数值模拟实现了锐角条件下仅考虑单因素即沟道交汇角对泥石流堆积危险范围影响的模拟试验。此外,利用GPU并行计算的优势可用于模拟大规模泥石流汇流现象,模型的可扩展性为泥石流汇流堆积危险范围分析向更为复杂的地理环境模拟奠定基础。 相似文献
44.
海底滑坡会对海洋工程结构物造成严重破坏。滑移速度和距离是量化和分析海底滑坡的两个重要参数。目前BING等计算方法在模拟水下土体流动方面存在局限性,因此通过建立考虑土体固结和侵蚀效应的控制方程,选用摩擦流变模型,采用SPH深度积分算法,对海底滑坡进行了模拟研究。对比不同水深、坡度、接触摩擦系数和侵蚀率条件下的滑移体的速度、高度、长度的时程曲线,整理了最大滑移距离和速度,讨论变化规律。研究成果可为海底滑坡灾害预警和海底管线路由选址提供技术参考。 相似文献
45.
青藏公路及铁路沿线的活动构造与其次生灾害 总被引：2，自引：8，他引：2
基于对青藏公路及铁路沿线区域约63400km2范围内1∶10万地质环境遥感的调查研究结果,采用以ETM为主、重点地区以IKONOS为辅的遥感数据、遥感解译与地面验证相结合的技术方法在研究区解译出数百条断层。根据这些断层的延伸方向和分布位置可归纳为20条断裂带(RF),它们与以往以地面调查为主的断裂带(GF)基本吻合。研究区的断裂带基本上均为活动断裂带,且都存在发震断层,将已发生地震的震级和频率较高(Ms≥5至>8)的断裂带定为主要地震构造带。青藏线共有5个主要地震构造带,其中东昆仑地震构造带及当雄—羊八井地震构造带是研究区内可能对铁路工程建设及公路、铁路运行安全带来严重影响的最重要的地震构造带。滑坡、泥石流是青藏线活动构造的主要次生灾害。该区的活动断裂对滑坡分布有一定的影响,但并没有控制作用;地震构造不但控制了泥石流的分布,且地震活动对泥石流活动的触发作用也非常明显。 相似文献
46.
Factors influencing the distance a disintegrating rock mass travels as it spreads across the landscape after detaching from a slope include the volume and mechanical properties of the material, local topography and the materials encountered in the runout path. Here we investigate the influence of runout‐path material on the mobility and final morphology of the Round Top rock avalanche deposit, New Zealand. This rock avalanche of mylonitic schist ran out over a planar surface of saturated fluvial gravel. Longitudinal ridges aligned radial to source grade into smaller aligned hummocks and digitate lobes in the distal reach. Soils and river gravels in the runout path are found bulldozed at elongate ridge termini where they formed local obstacles halting avalanche motion at these locations, thus aiding development of prominent elongate ridges on the deposit. Further travel over the disrupted substrate led to avalanche–substrate mixing at the base of the debris mass. Field observations combined with subsurface geophysical investigations and laboratory analogue models illustrate the processes of substrate deformation features at the Round Top rock avalanche. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
47.
泥石流危险性评价:模糊c均值聚类-支持向量机法 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
泥石流是一种能够造成灾难性后果的严重自然灾害,准确可靠的泥石流危险性评价对于其预警及防治工作来说至关重要。泥石流的危险性评价方法有很多,模糊c均值聚类（FCM）方法是其中一种应用广泛的分类方法;相比其他方法而言,其无需主观确定边界,并且能以各级隶属度矩阵为输出结果,方便应用。支持向量机（SVM）是基于结构风险最小化为目标的机器学习理论,以支持向量为算法支撑,具有一定的鲁棒性,并且适合在小样本条件下进行分类。本文选用FCM和SVM联合的方法,开展泥石流危险性的评价;对北京房山区南窖沟泥石流危险性进行分析,并对比其他评价方法所得结果,证明本文提出的评价方法具有较好的效果。 相似文献
48.
A study of a flowslide with significant entrainment in loess areas in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Fanyu Zhang Chao Kang Dave Chan Xiaochao Zhang Xiangjun Pei Jianbing Peng 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(14):2295-2305
Flowslides are a frequent type of natural disaster in loess areas and may result in the significant loss of properties and/or casualties. The Dagou flowslide is a typical event in a loess area and is accompanied by significant sediment entrainment. To analyze the mechanisms responsible for flowslides and to obtain the parameters for a runout analysis, a field investigation was conducted. Specimens were sampled on site to carry out laboratory tests, including a triaxial test, sieve analysis, and chemical component analysis. The parameters were used in the runout study employing an energy‐based runout model. An analytical entrainment model was adopted to calculate the entrainment after considering physical properties and the mechanism of the entrainment process of the loess. Finally, the entrainment model was incorporated into the runout model to simulate the post‐failure process of this case. Energy dissipation due to the deformation of slices was considered as it was thought to be important for a slide with a significant deformation. The simulation results were compared with the measurements, including runout distance, total volume, erosion depth, deposition height at different sections, and velocities at specific locations. The results indicate that the energy‐based runout model, together with the entrainment model, can capture the kinematic characteristics of the Dagou flowslide. Therefore, it is feasible to use this model to predict the runout characteristics of flowslides in similar areas. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
49.
F. K. Rengers L. A. McGuire J. W. Kean D. M. Staley A. M. Youberg 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(15):3078-3092
Predicting the timing of overland flow in burned watersheds can help to estimate debris-flow timing and the location of debris-flow initiation. Numerical models can produce flow predictions, but they are limited by our knowledge of appropriate model parameters. Moreover, opportunities to test and calibrate model parameters in post-wildfire settings are limited by available data (measurements of debris-flow timing are rare). In this study, we use a unique data set of rainfall and flow-timing data to test the extent to which model parameters can be generalized from an individual watershed to other watersheds (0.01 km 2 to >1km 2) within a burned area. Simulations suggest that a single, low, saturated hydraulic conductivity value can be used in post-wildfire landscapes with reasonable results. By contrast, we found that watershed-scale effective Manning roughness parameter values decrease as a power-law function of basin drainage area. Thus a Manning roughness parameter calibrated for a single basin within a burned area may not provide adequate results in a different watershed. However, when flow velocity is modeled independently for hillslopes and channels, and different roughness parameters are used for those morphometric units, there is no drainage-area dependence on the roughness parameters. Moreover, we found that it was possible to use field-measured grain size data to parameterize the roughness for both hillslopes and channels. Thus our results show that, employing this generalizable approach, it is possible to use field measurements to fully parameterize a model that produces peak flow timing to within a few minutes in storms lasting several hours. Further, we demonstrate how model simulations can be leveraged to identify areas within a watershed that are most susceptible to debris flows. This modeling approach could be used for decision making in hazardous burned areas and would be especially useful in ungaged basins. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
50.
Landslide hazards triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan, China 总被引：35，自引：16，他引：19
The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M
s = 8.0; epicenter located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E), with a focal depth of 19.0 km was triggered by the reactivation of the Longmenshan
fault in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, China on 12 May 2008. This earthquake directly caused more than 15,000 geohazards
in the form of landslides, rockfalls, and debris flows which resulted in about 20,000 deaths. It also caused more than 10,000
potential geohazard sites, especially for rockfalls, reflecting the susceptibility of high and steep slopes in mountainous
areas affected by the earthquake. Landslide occurrence on mountain ridges and peaks indicated that seismic shaking was amplified
by mountainous topography. Thirty-three of the high-risk landslide lakes with landslide dam heights greater than 10 m were
classified into four levels: extremely high risk, high risk, medium risk, and low risk. The levels were created by comprehensively
analyzing the capacity of landslide lakes, the height of landslide dams, and the composition and structure of materials that
blocked rivers. In the epicenter area which was 300 km long and 10 km wide along the main seismic fault, there were lots of
landslides triggered by the earthquake, and these landslides have a common characteristic of a discontinuous but flat sliding
surface. The failure surfaces can be classified into the following three types based on their overall shape: concave, convex,
and terraced. Field evidences illustrated that the vertical component of ground shaking had a significant effect on both building
collapse and landslide generation. The ground motion records show that the vertical acceleration is greater than the horizontal,
and the acceleration must be larger than 1.0 g in some parts along the main seismic fault. Two landslides are discussed as
high speed and long runout cases. One is the Chengxi landslide in Beichuan County, and the other is the Donghekou landslide
in Qingchuan County. In each case, the runout process and its impact on people and property were analyzed. The Chengxi landslide
killed 1,600 people and destroyed numerous houses. The Donghekou landslide is a complex landslide–debris flow with a long
runout. The debris flow scoured the bank of the Qingjiang River for a length of 2,400 m and subsequently formed a landslide
dam. This landslide buried seven villages and killed more than 400 people. 相似文献