中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

赵彦茜  肖登攀  柏会子  陶福禄 《地理科学进展》2019,38(2):224-235

以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。  相似文献   

Stochastic bivariate time series models of waves in the North Sea and their application in simulation-based design     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

In this paper, we present and evaluate three long-term wave models for application in simulation-based design of ships and marine structures. Designers and researchers often rely on historical weather data as a source for ocean area characteristics based on hindcast datasets or in-situ measurements. The limited access and size of historical datasets reduces repeatability of simulations and analyses, making it difficult to assess the sampling variability of performance and loads on marine vessels and structures. Markov, VAR and VARMA wave models, producing independent long-term time series of significant wave height (H_s) and spectral peak period (T_p), is presented as possible solutions to this problem. The models are tested and compared by addressing how the models affect interpretation of design concepts and the ability to replicate statistical and physical characteristics of the wave process. Our results show that the VAR and VARMA models perform sufficiently in describing design performance, but does not capture the physical process fully. The Markov model is found to perform worst of the tested models in the applied tests, especially for measures covering several consecutive sea states.  相似文献   

Obtaining the distribution of quiescent periods directly from the power spectral densities of Sea waves     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

There is a growing practical interest in the ability to increase the sea states at which marine operations can be safely undertaken by exploiting the quiescent periods that are well known to exist under a wide range of sea conditions. While the actual prediction of quiescent periods at sea for the control of operations is a deterministic process, the long term planning of future maritime tasks that rely on these quiescent periods is a statistical process involving the anticipated quiescence properties of the forecasted sea conditions in the geographical region of interest. It is in principle possible to obtain such data in tabular form either large scale simulation or from field data. However, such simulations are computationally intensive and libraries of appropriate field data are not common. Thus, it is clearly attractive to develop techniques that exploit standard wave spectral models for describing the quiescence statistics directly from such spectra. The present study focuses upon such techniques and is a first step towards the production of a computationally low-cost quiescence prediction tool and compares its efficacy against simulations. Two significant properties emerge for a large class of wave spectral models that encompasses the ubiquitous Neumann and Pierson Moskowitz or Bretschneider forms. Firstly, the auto-correlation function of the wave profile that are required to produce the quiescence property can be obtained analytically in terms of standard special functions. This considerably reduces the computational cost making desktop computer-based planning tools a reality. Secondly, for each class of these parametric spectra, the probability of a given number of consecutive wave heights (normalised to the significant wave heights) less than some critical value is in fact independent of absolute wave height. Thus, for a broad class of practically interesting wave spectra all that is required to obtain the statistical distribution of the quiescent periods is simple rescaling.  相似文献   

A 10-year wave energy resource assessment and trends of Indonesia based on satellite observations     

Amiruddin  Ribal Agustinus  Khaeruddin  Thamrin Sri Astuti 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(8):86-93

Wave energy resource assessment and trends around Indonesian's ocean has been carried out by means of analyzing satellite observations. Wave energy flux or wave power can be approximated using parameterized sea states derived from satellite data. Unfortunately, only some surface parameters can be measured from remote sensing satellites, for example for ocean surface waves: significant wave height. Others, like peak wave period and energy period are not available, but can instead be estimated using empirical models. The results have been assessed by meteorological season. The assessment shows clearly where and when the wave power resource is promising around Indonesian's ocean. The most striking result was found from June to August, in which about 30–40 kW/m(the 90 th percentile: 40–60 kW/m, the 99th percentile: 50–70 kW/m) wave power energy on average has been found around south of the Java Island. The significant trends of wave energy at the 95% level have also been studied and it is found that the trends only occurred for the extreme cases, which is the 99th percentile(i.e.,highest 1%). Wave power energy could increase up to 150 W/m per year. The significant wave heights and wave power have been compared with the results obtained from global wave model hindcast carried out by wave model WAVEWATCH III. The comparisons indicated excellent agreements.  相似文献   

140kaBP以来南海西南部上升流影响区沉积记录及其古海洋环境变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

邹杨浩  冉莉华  Martin G Wiesner  刘飞  梁文  陈建芳  刘连文 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2019,39(2):123-133

对南海西南部现代上升流区沉积物柱样BIS-187-61孔有机碳、生物蛋白石、碳酸盐等各沉积组分进行了详细的分析,试图探讨末次间冰期(MIS 5)以来南海西南部夏季上升流影响区沉积过程及其所反映的海洋环境变化过程。研究结果发现,140kaBP以来该孔沉积记录期总体表现为:碳酸盐百分含量冰期低间冰期高,主要受周边陆源物质输入稀释的控制,为典型的"大西洋型碳酸盐旋回",有机碳、生物蛋白石、碳酸钙以及陆源沉积物的堆积速率均在MIS 2期、MIS 4期和MIS 5e期出现高值。其中,MIS 2期和MIS 4期生源和陆源沉积堆积速率增加可能与冰期时冬季风增强及海平面下降导致陆源营养物质输入增加对初级生产力的刺激有关,也可能与陆源物质输入增加对海洋生源颗粒物输出的压载作用增强有关。而MIS 5e期南海海平面高度与现代相仿,间冰期较强的夏季风引起的越南沿岸上升流增强是导致该时段本研究区域表层初级生产力增强,沉积物总堆积速率及各组分堆积速率都相应增加的主要原因。  相似文献   

南海北部海域油气资源调查技术及其应用研究——震源子波检测及模拟分析          下载免费PDF全文

曾宪军  翟继锋  韦成龙 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(2)

在野外采集中考察气枪的稳定性以及室内进行确定性子波反褶积处理,都要求能够获得气枪阵列的实时远场子波。从震源子波检测方法出发,阐述了近场子波采集、幅值转换及记录流程,并列举出实测近场子波时需要考虑解决的问题;接着介绍了震源远场子波的获取方法和主要途径;震源近场子波及远场子波的实测方案,检测震源子波所需的仪器设备和采集技术方法。文中分析了气枪子波的气泡干扰问题,虚反射与后续气泡震荡间的关系以及吸收衰减对子波的影响,并根据实测远场子波,对齐氏和范氏两种气体模型进行了模拟效果对比,结果表明:采用范氏气体模型所模拟的子波与实际子波更为吻合,模拟出的气枪的子波波形、振幅大小、气泡周期上,与业界通用的Nucleus软件的模拟结果吻合较好,在后续的使用中将继续优化。  相似文献   

1951—2018年衢州市椪柑采摘期连阴雨天气变化特征     

汪晨  毛程燕  龚理卿  王健疆 《气象与环境学报》2021,37(2):71-76

基于1951—2018年衢州市椪柑采摘期降水量、雨日、日照时数、相对湿度等逐日气象资料,应用统计分析和小波分析方法,分析椪柑采摘期连阴雨天气变化特征及其大气环流背景.结果表明:1951—2018年衢州椪柑采摘期连阴雨日数、次数和强度呈略微增加趋势、滑动3d无雨次数呈减少趋势;滑动3d无雨次数存在明显的5a、7a和15a...  相似文献   

SH波入射下圆弧状沉积盆地地震反应瞬态解析解计算     

任朋  陈三红  张郁山 《震灾防御技术》2021,16(2):352-361

地震波散射问题的解析解是研究局部场地、地形、盆地等不规则地层结构对地震动参数放大效应影响的重要理论工具.现有解析解大部分在频域内给出,无法直接用于研究不规则地层结构对地震动峰值、反应谱等参数的放大效应.本文基于平面SH波入射下圆弧状沉积盆地动力响应宽频带稳态解析解,通过Fourier变换,获取瞬态响应解析解.基于此,研...  相似文献   

Distribution of the nonlinear random ocean wave period     

侯一筠  李明杰  宋贵霆  司广成  齐鹏  胡珀 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2009,27(4):919-923

Because of the intrinsic difficulty in determining distributions for wave periods, previous studies on wave period distribution models have not taken nonlinearity into account and have not performed well in terms of describing and statistically analyzing the probability density distribution of ocean waves. In this study, a statistical model of random waves is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. In addition, a new nonlinear probability distribution function for the wave period is presented with the parameters of spectral density width and nonlinear wave steepness, which is more reasonable as a physical mechanism. The magnitude of wave steepness determines the intensity of the nonlinear effect, while the spectral width only changes the energy distribution. The wave steepness is found to be an important parameter in terms of not only dynamics but also statistics. The value of wave steepness reflects the degree that the wave period distribution skews from the Cauchy distribution, and it also describes the variation in the distribution function, which resembles that of the wave surface elevation distribution and wave height distribution. We found that the distribution curves skew leftward and upward as the wave steepness increases. The wave period observations for the SZFII-1 buoy, made off the coast of Weihai (37°27.6′ N, 122°15.1′ E), China, are used to verify the new distribution. The coefficient of the correlation between the new distribution and the buoy data at different spectral widths (ν=0.3−0.5) is within the range of 0.968 6 to 0.991 7. In addition, the Longuet-Higgins (1975) and Sun (1988) distributions and the new distribution presented in this work are compared. The validations and comparisons indicate that the new nonlinear probability density distribution fits the buoy measurements better than the Longuet-Higgins and Sun distributions do. We believe that adoption of the new wave period distribution would improve traditional statistical wave theory.  相似文献   

Particle trajectories of nonlinear gravity waves in deep water     

Hsien-Kuo Chang  Jin-Cheng Liou 《Ocean Engineering》2009,36(5):324-329

The paper presents a numerical method for calculating the particle trajectories of nonlinear gravity waves in deep water. Particle trajectories, mass-transport velocity and Lagrangian wave period can be accurately determined by the proposed method. The high success rate of the proposed method is examined by comparing the present results with those of (a) Longuet-Higgins, M.S., 1986, 1987. Eulerian and Lagrangian aspects of surface waves. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 173, 683-707 and (b) Lagrangian moments and mass transport in Stokes waves. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 179, 547-555. It is shown that the dimensionless mass-transport velocity can exceed 10% for large waves, and the Lagrangian wave period is much larger than the Eulerian wave period for large waves.  相似文献