Discussion on the Relation Between the Probabilistic Distribution of Magnitude in a Seismic Province and That in an Area with Potential Seismic Source     

Gao MengtanInstitute of Geophysics  SSB  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》1994,(3)

According to the joint probabilistic distribution model of magnitude and space,the author discusses the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in an area with potential seismic sources.The results show that if the magnitude probabilistic distribution follows the truncated exponential form in a seismic province,there must be some potential source in which the magnitude probabilistic distribution does not conform to that form.The result is consistent with the concept of "characteristic earthquake" derived from the study of actual records of seismicity and the study of geology.The author suggests that the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in a seismic potential area must be considered in the study of the analysis of seismicity,seismic zonation and engineering seismology,for the purpose of the evaluation of the probabilistic distribution of magnitude correctly in every area with potential s  相似文献   

Comparative evaluation of Poisson partial duration models for mixed flood populations     

Senarath T. Ekanayake  J. F. Cruise 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1994,8(3):207-218

Simple homogeneous formulations of two extreme value partial duration flood models are compared to more sophisticated compound formulations in terms of asymptotic performance of quantile estimates. The compound model formulations were developed to model flood series resulting from mixed climatological processes. It was found that only in the case of marked nonhomogeneity in the data samples did the compound formulation of the models offer significant advantages in terms of variance of quantile estimates. However, the estimates from the homogeneous model were significantly biased in the negative direction. This negative bias of quantile estimates from the simple model was even more pronounced when the more sophisticated Weibull model was used as the base.  相似文献   

Channel and floodplain response to recent abrupt climate change: The tyne basin,Northern England     

Barbara T. Rumsby  Mark G. Macklin 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1994,19(6):499-515

This paper examines the timing, nature and magnitude of river response in upland, piedmont and lowland reaches of the Tyne basin, northern England, to high-frequency (20–30 year) changes in climate and flood regime since 1700 AD. Over this period fluvial activity has been characterized by alternating phases of river-bed incision and stability coinciding with non-random, decadal-scale fluctuations in flood frequency and hydroclimate that appear to be linked to changes in large-scale upper atmospheric circulation patterns. Episodes of widespread channel bed incision (1760–1799, 1875–1894, 1955–1969) result from a higher frequency of large floods (> 20 year return period) and cool, wet climate under meridional circulation regimes. Phases of more moderate floods (5–20 year return period), corresponding to zonal circulation types (1820–1874, 1920–1954), are characterized by enhanced lateral reworking and sediment transfer in upper reaches of the catchment, and channel narrowing and infilling downstream. Rates of fluvial activity are reduced in intermediate periods (1800–1819, 1895–1919) with no dominant circulation regime associated with lower flood frequency and magnitude. The results of this study provide a valuable guide for forecasting probable drainage basin and channel response to future climate change.  相似文献   

云南山区日照时数的垂直分布     

王宇 《山地学报》1993,(1)

根据云南省内若干山区气象资料,研究云南山区日照时效的垂直分布规律,得出一些有意义的结论:日照时数垂直分布有抛物线型、线性型、缓变型等;日照时数年内变化有冬大夏小型、春大夏小型、夏大冬小型3种;山区日照时数坡向差异明显,各山区不尽相同。  相似文献   

On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena     

V. Choulakian  N. El-Jabi  J. Moussi 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1990,4(3):217-226

A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.  相似文献   

Evaluation of risk concepts in partial duration series     

P. F. Rasmussen  D. Rosbjerg 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1991,5(1):1-16

Conventional design practice aims at obtaining optimal estimates of floods with specified exceedance probabilities. Such estimates are, however, known on the average to be exceeded more frequently than expected. Alternatively, methods focusing on the expected exceedance probability can be used. Two different methods are considered here; the first is based on the sample distribution of true exceedance probabilities. The second is a Bayesian analogue using the likelihood function and a noninformative prior to describe the variability of exceedance probabilities. Appropriate analytical solutions are presented in both cases using the partial duration series approach.  相似文献   

苏北溱潼凹陷的拉张量研究及构造运动强度分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

施泽进  施央申 《大地构造与成矿学》1994,18(1):43-52

运用正演平衡剖面方法，本文对苏北溱潼凹陷三条剖面的演化过程进行了模拟，恢复计算出各断层各期次的伸展量，该箕状凹陷各发展阶段的拉张量以及对应于三期主要构造运动的拉张量。结果表明，构造运动具有延续性，仅在某些组段的表现更为强烈。在时空上，拉张活动具有很大的不均衡性，在凹陷的西南部，中部及东北部地区，拉张量及沉积特征均有很大差异，构造运动的强度也各不相同。  相似文献   

利用近场地震加速度记录测定近震震级ML的研究     

章文波  彭克中 《地震工程与工程振动》1995,15(3):4-11

本文对如何利用强震加速度记录测定近震震级ＭＬ的问题进行了研究，指出了在我国所使用的原始量规函数存在着系统偏差，并用回归现有观测资料的方法修正了这种系统偏差。用修正后的量规函数，利用近场加速度记录计算的ＭＬ值同微震台网所测定的值符合得较好，说明本文所提出的方法是可行的。  相似文献   

Modeling of the runup heights of the Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki tsunami of 12 July 1993     

Katsuyuki Abe 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):735-745

The Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki earthquake (M _w 7.7) of July 12, 1993, is one of the largest tsunamigenic events in the Sea of Japan. The tsunami magnitudeM _t is determined to be 8.1 from the maximum amplitudes of the tsunami recorded on tide gauges. This value is larger thanM _w by 0.4 units. It is suggested that the tsunami potential of the Nansei-Oki earthquake is large forM _w . A number of tsunami runup data are accumulated for a total range of about 1000 km along the coast, and the data are averaged to obtain the local mean heightsH _n for 23 segments in intervals of about 40 km each. The geographic variation ofH _n is approximately explained in terms of the empirical relationship proposed byAbe (1989, 1993). The height prediction from the available earthquake magnitudes ranges from 5.0–8.4 m, which brackets the observed maximum ofH _n , 7.7 m, at Okushiri Island.  相似文献   

On estimating frequency-magnitude relations from heterogeneous catalogs     

Stefano Tinti  Rossella Rimondi  Francesco Mulargia 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1987,125(1):1-18

The paper studies the effect of magnitude errors on heterogeneous catalogs, by applying the apparent magnitude theory (seeTinti andMulargia, 1985a), which proves to be the most natural and rigorous approach to the problem. Heterogeneities in seismic catalogs are due to a number of various sources and affect both instrumental as well as noninstrumental earthquake compilations.The most frequent basis of heterogeneity is certainly that the recent instrumental records are to be combined with the historic and prehistoric event listings to secure a time coverage, considerably longer than the recurrence time of the major earthquakes. Therefore the case which attracts the greatest attention in the present analysis is that of a catalog consisting of a subset of higher quality data, generallyS ₁, spanning the interval T ₁ (the instrumental catalog), and of a second subset of more uncertain magnitude determination, generallyS ₂, covering a vastly longer interval T ₂ (the historic and/or the geologic catalog). The magnitude threshold of the subcatalogS ₁ is supposedly smaller than that ofS ₂, which, as we will see, is one of the major causes of discrepancy between the apparent magnitude and the true magnitude distributions. We will further suppose that true magnitude occurrences conform to theGutenberg-Richter (GR) law, because the assumption simplified the analysis without reducing the relevancy of our findings.The main results are: 1) the apparent occurrence rate exceeds the true occurrence rate from a certain magnitude onward, saym _GR; 2) the apparent occurrence rate shows two distinct GR regimes separated by an intermediate transition region. The offset between the two regimes is the essential outcome ofS ₁ being heterogeneous with respect toS ₂. The most important consequences of this study are that: 1) it provides a basis to infer the parameters of the true magnitude distribution, by correcting the bias deriving from heterogeneous magnitude errors; 2) it demonstrates that the double GR decay, that several authors have taken as the incontestable proof of the failure of the GR law and of the experimental evidence of the characteristic earthquake theory, is instead perfectly consistent with a GR-type seismicity.  相似文献