The expert system for earthquake prediction (I)—the overall design and main structure     

Biquan Wang  Zuyin Chen  Shutian Ma  Hongshun Fan 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(3):447-457

The Expert System For Earthquake Prediction (ESEP) is summarized in this paper. ESEP embraces three subsystems: long-middle term prediction system, annual prediction system and middle-short term prediction system. Each of the subsystems is composed of seven modules: the controlling module, the data base module, the expert knowledge base module, the method base module, the fact preparation module, the reasoning and decision-making module and the plotting and displaying module. The reasoning model ESEP/R and the knowledge expression model ESEP/K are set up in the ESEP, and new evidence combinations, CON (confine), W (weigh), and SYN (synthesize), have been proposed. The distinctive features of the ESEP are: (1) systemized; (2) several experts’ knowledge can be synthesized; (3) a large amount of data and experts’ experience is embraced; (4) four reasoning models and the synthetic decision-making technic are adopted; (5) several software environments are used; (6) modularization; and (7) possessing the friendly user interfaces. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 1–8, 1992.  相似文献   

The experimental research on b value of AE for the rock specimens with pre-existing crack or notch under uniaxial compression     

Hong Li  Xiangchu Yin  Shiyu Li  Jihan Li 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(4):867-875

A lot of researches onb value have been made in seismology. Since the 1960’s Mogi, Scholz and others have studied AE of rock specimens in laboratory and discovered that it is related to natural earthquakes. All former researchers used integral specimens to studyb value in the laboratory. However a major earthquake is usually related to a existing seismic-fault in that area. For this reason, a series of fracture experiments with rock and glass specimens having pre-existing crack or notch is performed in order to examine the effect of preexisting crack tob value. The experimental results show that theb value begins to decrease as soon as the initiation of the crack and finally drop to a very low value when the specimen breaks unstably. Based on these, a brief discussion on the possible mechanism ofb value change for natural earthquakes is given. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,9, 393–400, 1987. Projects sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.  相似文献   

Statistical analysis of seismic data from north-western and western Argentina     

A. M. Osella  N. C. Sabbione  D. C. Cernadas 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1992,139(2):277-292

Due to the process of subduction of the Nazca Plate, high seismic activity is observed near the Argentine Andean range between 21°S and 36°S. The new version of the Argentine Seismic Catalogue, which includes well-defined events during the period 1964–1989, allows us to perform an analysis of seismic risk.Earthquakes with epicenters in the provinces included in the north-western and western regions were studied using Gumbel III extreme value distribution. Modal extreme magnitudes and return periods were calculated for both regions and the results were compard with the ones obtained through the entire process techniques (both analytical and graphical).As a first study, we analyzed each province separately, after which mean values for each region were obtained. Modal values around 5–5.5 have been found and times of recurrence for events withm _b >6 of approximately 25 years were obtained.Also at CONICET (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Técnicas).  相似文献   

Moment tensor inversion of some aftershocks of the April 18, 1985 Luquan earthquake of Yunnan Province, China     

Jiangchuan Ni  Yuntai Chen  Ming Wang  Mingxi Wu  Jiayu Zhou  Peide Wang  Francis T. Wu 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(3):459-467

Based on the three component accelerograms, recorded at near-field distance by a temporary seismic network consisting of digital cassette tape recording accelerographs, the focal mechanisms of three aftershocks of the April 18, 1985, Luquan, Yunnan Province, China, earthquake ofM _S=6.1, are calculated using seismic moment tensor inversion technique. The phases of direct P, S and converted SP waves in the displacement seismograms, produced by twice integrations of the observed accelerograms, are identified via forward calculation using Green’s functions for homogeneous semi-infinite elastic medium, and used in the inversion. The results of inversion show that a better fit of synthetic to the observed seismograms of direct as well as converted phases can be achieved if appropriate weighting functions are used in solving the over definite linear equations. While these aftershocks are of different magnitudes (M _L=4.8, 3.2 and 3.5, respectively) and hypocentral locations, their focal mechanisms are very similar and consistent with that of the main shock. This feature demonstrates the intrinsic correlation between the occurrence of aftershocks and the seismogenic fault of main shock. Our experimentations show that using the near field accelerogram obtained from the digital seismic network with appropriate azimuthal coverage on the focal sphere, with the aid of even simple medium model, not only the shear dislocation source, but also the isotropic part and CLVD (compensated linear vector dipole) can be retrieved by the technique of moment tensor inversion. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 412–419, 1991. This work is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Sciences Foundation and the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Test Site (WYEPTS), State Seismological Bureau.  相似文献   

澜沧—耿马地震主震参数     

李立平  刘宜兵 《地震研究》1992,15(4):366-372

本文用下关地震台数字地震仪的主震加速度记录,结合澜沧——耿马地震的宏观考察资料,以波谱法为基础,分别计算了两个主震的运动学、静力学和动力学参数各18个。用以从微观地震学角度描述澜沧——耿马地震的两个主震。通过所求参数的分析对比,认为是澜沧主震触发了耿马主震。  相似文献   

1979年加州凯奥蒂湖地震序列震源机制分析:美国加州地震比中国大陆地震破裂过程简单的证据   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

李钦祖 Bolt  BA 《地球物理学报》1992,35(2):160-173

本文详细分析了1979年美国加利福尼亚凯奥蒂湖地震序列在时间和空间之中发展的非常有序的过程.对凯奥蒂湖地震序列,在三种情况下分别做出34次地震的断层面解.分析了美国地质调查局观测报告中地震初动的可信性.论证了伯克利加利福尼亚大学的地壳模型与美国地质调查局的地壳模型对于求断层面解的等效性.与唐山地震序列相比,凯奥蒂湖地震序列表现出4个主要特点:1.震中分布呈规则的狭长条带,与断层的关系密切;2.断层面解中出现的矛盾初动少;3.断层面解之间的一致性好;4.断层面解随时间没有明显的变化.这些都表明,凯奥蒂湖地震序列比唐山地震序列特征简单,前者基本上是沿卡拉维拉斯断层发生的面破裂,而后者却是在一定震源区中发生的体破裂.唐山地震序列的特征在中国大陆是有代表性的.若凯奥蒂湖地震序列的这些特点,在加州也具有代表性,则这两个地震序列的差别,可以作为美国加州地震比中国大陆地震发生环境和发生过程都简单的一个证据.  相似文献   

东北深,浅源地震的相关活动   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱兆才 《地震地磁观测与研究》1992,13(4):20-24

本文讨论了东北深、浅源地震在时间上、强度上的相关活动特点,认为东北地震是太平洋板块俯冲与亚欧板块挤压作用的结果。东北深震超前于浅源地震活动,可为浅源地震监测预报提供信息。  相似文献   

The Armenian earthquake of 1988 December 7: faulting and folding, neotectonics and palaeoseismicity   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

H. Philip  E. Rogozhin  A. Cisternas  J. C. Bousquet  B. Borisov  A. Karakhanian 《Geophysical Journal International》1992,110(1):141-158

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秦巴地区中——酸性浅成小岩体与金矿   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

晁援 《陕西地质》1992,(1)

本文叙述了秦岭大巴山地区中——酸性浅成——超浅成侵入——爆破“杂”岩体的地质特征及其分布;叙述了与岩体有成生联系的斑(玢)岩型、矽卡岩型、爆破(隐爆——坍塌)角砾岩型、构造蚀变岩型、热液脉型等类型金矿的地质特征;总结了岩体的成矿模式,同时指出了矿床类型和共(伴)生元素的成矿系列;指出分布在秦巴地区的5个印支期——燕山期岩体带中的21个小岩体群,其中数百个小岩体及其附近有找到多种类型金矿的可能,预测其找矿前景乐观,金矿资源潜力很大。  相似文献   

Identification and prioritization of data for collection in post-earthquake surveys     

G. Sayeed Choudhury  Nicholas P. Jones 《Natural Hazards》1995,12(2):119-138

During an earthquake, buildings which are vulnerable to seismic loads will be damaged, resulting in property loss and the potential for casualties. To reduce loss of life and injury, the relationship between earthquake-induced building failure and injury severity and distribution needs to be clarified. To this end, a methodology and a series of data collection forms were developed to collect pertinent data for post-event analysis and to provide a basis for structural triage in the field shortly following an earthquake for search and rescue purposes. The forms were developed in four steps: (1) identifying the variables which affect the outcome of an occupant in a damaged building; (2) classifying the variables into three levels of priority for data collection; (3) designing the forms; and (4) applying the forms to damaged buildings from past earthquakes. These forms represent a significant departure from existing forms in that they consider both casualties and building damage jointly in a consistent format. This paper describes the first two steps of the development process; a companion paper outlines the latter components.  相似文献