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Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent (SWE) data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attending
the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) was first evaluated by computing the different
percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979–2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that
performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in
2002–2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant
decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will
be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in warmer seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing
trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller
positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western
Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the
middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing
trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) will speed
up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for
mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia. 相似文献
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该文就总量控制工作进行理论探讨,提出控制平均浓度的排污等效模型,同时对计算区段控制浓度的确定进行定量化模型研究。该模型简便、易操作、实用性强,具有一定的理论意义和实用价值。 相似文献
76.
YAN Xinlu ZHANG Songhang TANG Shuheng LI Zhongcheng WANG Kaifeng YI Yongxiang DANG Feng HU Qiuping 《《地质学报》英文版》2019,93(3):692-703
The main methods of coalbed methane(CBM) development are drainage and depressurization, and a precise prediction of coal reservoir pressure is thus crucial for the evaluation of reservoir potentials and the formulation of reasonable development plans. This work established a new reservoir pressure prediction model based on the material balance equation(MBE) of coal reservoir, which considers the self-regulating effects of coal reservoirs and the dynamic change of equivalent drainage area(EDA). According to the proposed model, the reservoir pressure can be predicted based on reservoir condition data and the actual production data of a single well. Compared with traditional reservoir pressure prediction models which regard EDA as a fixed value, the proposed model can better predict the average pressure of reservoirs. Moreover, orthogonal experiments were designed to evaluate the sensitivity of reservoir parameters on the reservoir pressure prediction results of this proposed model. The results show that the saturation of irreducible water is the most sensitive parameter, followed by Langmuir volume and reservoir porosity, and Langmuir pressure is the least sensitive parameter. In addition, the pressure drop of reservoirs is negatively correlated with the saturation of irreducible water and the Langmuir volume, while it is positively correlated with porosity. This work analyzed the reservoir pressure drop characteristics of the CBM wells in the Shizhuangnan Block of the Qinshui Basin, and the results show that the CBM reservoir depressurization can be divided into three types, i.e., rapidly drop type, medium-term stability type, and slowly drop type. The drainage features of wells were reasonably interpreted based on the comprehensive analysis of the reservoir depressurization type; the latter was coupled to the corresponding permeability dynamic change characteristics, eventually proving the applicability of the proposed model. 相似文献
77.
该文以中国南方一厚碳酸盐岩覆盖区的RVSP三维地震勘探实例,对RVSP三维地震勘探观测系统和数据采集参数的确定、地面等效处理和波场分离等关键处理技术及地质效果进行了阐述和分析,说明了RVSP在克服表浅层复杂地质条件及环境条件对资料的影响及提高地震资料的分辨率有其特定的优势,同时也提出了RVSP三维地震在采集和处理过程中的难点。 相似文献
78.
J. Ignacio López-Moreno Leena Leppänen Bartłomiej Luks Ladislav Holko Ghislain Picard Alba Sanmiguel-Vallelado Esteban Alonso-González David C. Finger Ali N. Arslan Katalin Gillemot Aynur Sensoy Arda Sorman M. Cansaran Ertaş Steven R. Fassnacht Charles Fierz Christoph Marty 《水文研究》2020,34(14):3120-3133
Manually collected snow data are often considered as ground truth for many applications such as climatological or hydrological studies. However, there are many sources of uncertainty that are not quantified in detail. For the determination of water equivalent of snow cover (SWE), different snow core samplers and scales are used, but they are all based on the same measurement principle. We conducted two field campaigns with 9 samplers commonly used in observational measurements and research in Europe and northern America to better quantify uncertainties when measuring depth, density and SWE with core samplers. During the first campaign, as a first approach to distinguish snow variability measured at the plot and at the point scale, repeated measurements were taken along two 20 m long snow pits. The results revealed a much higher variability of SWE at the plot scale (resulting from both natural variability and instrumental bias) compared to repeated measurements at the same spot (resulting mostly from error induced by observers or very small scale variability of snow depth). The exceptionally homogeneous snowpack found in the second campaign permitted to almost neglect the natural variability of the snowpack properties and focus on the separation between instrumental bias and error induced by observers. Reported uncertainties refer to a shallow, homogeneous tundra-taiga snowpack less than 1 m deep (loose, mostly recrystallised snow and no wind impact). Under such measurement conditions, the uncertainty in bulk snow density estimation is about 5% for an individual instrument and is close to 10% among different instruments. Results confirmed that instrumental bias exceeded both the natural variability and the error induced by observers, even in the case when observers were not familiar with a given snow core sampler. 相似文献
79.
风、沉积物和地表覆盖是控制沙丘地貌的三大要素。沉积物尤其是沙源供应对沙丘地貌的影响仍有待深入研究。沙丘体积的研究促使了等效沙厚度(equivalent sand thickness, EST)概念的提出。EST研究经历了多个沙丘和亚沙丘尺度2个研究阶段。多个沙丘EST研究发现,EST与沙丘高度之间具有较好的一致性,其与方向变率的组合可以很好地区分沙丘类型,且在宏观上可以表征沙源供应。亚沙丘尺度EST研究使得利用高分辨率遥感影像研究沙丘(山)地貌及其形成过程成为可能。未来的研究应在像元尺度上对沙丘(山)地貌进行滤波,不同滤波窗口所得到的不同图层可以用来探究沙丘(山)地貌的形成过程。 相似文献
80.
常规GPS/INS紧组合抗差自适应滤波只适用于卫星数≥4的情况,且预测残差构造自适应因子要求观测值可靠。针对该局限性,对常规抗差自适应滤波算法做出两点改进:1)采用两步滤波,用第1步常规EKF滤波残差构造第二步抗差算法的粗差判别量;2)在第2步滤波用预测残差构造自适应因子时,剔除异常观测值对应的预测残差和预测残差协方差,以削弱观测异常对自适应因子的不良影响。实验结果表明,常规抗差算法在卫星数4时不适用。常规自适应滤波算法在观测值存在异常的情况下无法正确修正模型异常。改进后的抗差自适应滤波算法在组合系统观测卫星数4且观测值存在异常的情况下,仍能正确修正观测粗差和动力学模型异常,能够达到良好的导航精度。 相似文献