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31.
可操作的地震预测(OEF)国际研究动态综述 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对目前国际上正持续开展的"可操作的地震预测"的研究动态,从主要关注的领域、"概率增益"概念的引入、混合模型研发及其在地震减灾中的应用等方面进行了重点介绍。由于OEF是在全球"地震可预测性合作研究"计划基础上逐步发展起来,具有重要的地震预测模型研发的技术基础以及解决地震减灾决策实际问题的实践基础,因此,相关研究动态和技术思路对我国的地震预测预报工作具有重要的启发和借鉴意义。 相似文献
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A hydrodynamics-based surge scale for hurricanes 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Record hurricane surges over the last several years have demonstrated the need for an improved surge hazard warning scale for hurricanes. Here, a simple hydrodynamics-based surge scale for hurricane surge hazard is presented. This surge scale incorporates readily available meteorological information along with regional-scale bathymetry into a single measure of expected surge levels at the coast. We further outline an approach for estimating expected flood inundation and damages based on the alongshore extent of high surges during hurricanes. Comparisons between this new surge scale and historical hurricane observations show a measurable improvement over existing surge indices, including the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is anticipated that the proposed surge scale will improve public awareness of surge hazard and assist governments in communicating critical decisions regarding evacuation and emergency response. 相似文献
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Route selection is a complex issue in simulating the pedestrian’s walking behaviour during the evacuation. In many current studies, the agent-based model has been widely used to simulate the individualized behaviour, and growing concern is given to the cognitive aspects in route selection. However, the influence of incomplete spatial knowledge and the preferences for different routing strategies has not been fully considered. To represent more reliable route choice by different pedestrians, this study presents an individual cognitive evacuation behaviour model which is mainly focusing on the individual differences in routing strategy and spatial knowledge. The model consists of two major components, namely the multiple routing strategies and personalized spatial cognitive road network. Based on a review of the previous studies, the potential factors that may affect the evacuation behaviour were discussed. The quantitative relationships between these potential factors and the pedestrian’s routing preference, as well as the possibilities of recognizing different roads, were explored using the regression method. As a case study, the proposed model was implemented using the data collected from a field survey of a real outdoor event. When applied in an agent-based simulation, the implemented model will support more reliable simulation of route choices corresponding to the pedestrians’ behaviour in the real event. 相似文献
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在室内应急疏散的背景下,理解人们如何感知应急疏散标识以及他们的感知如何影响疏散行为十分重要。虚拟地理环境基于虚拟现实（VR）技术构建的沉浸式多维信息空间,是一个符合人类感知认知规律的三维、动态、可交互空间。而基于虚拟地理环境的虚拟地理感知/认知实验,则可以提供一个可定量观测的可控虚拟实验环境,通过设计多种实验方案,定量地获取与空间感知、认知行为相关的客观实验数据。本文将沉浸式虚拟环境与眼动追踪技术相结合,设计了VR眼动感知实验,以室内通道为例,采用定量观测、数据统计、可视化分析等方法,对不同虚拟火灾逃生场景下的疏散时间、眼动注视点、个体移动轨迹数据进行了处理与分析,最后对室内应急疏散标识布局进行评估并提出合理建议。实验结果表明：① 女性参与者比男性更容易被逃生起始位置干扰,拥有较差的虚拟空间感;② 3种场景类型（无标识无烟雾、有标识无烟雾、有标识有烟雾）在疏散时间之间存在明显差异,应急标识、烟雾与逃生起始位置对疏散时间有显著性影响;③ 通道墙贴标识的感知率最高为0.929,在火灾逃生中最容易被识别;④ 安全出口标识感知率最低为0.333,眼动注视点大多在安全门而非安全出口标识上,因此需要提升安全出口标识的视觉吸引力;⑤ 室内通道微观环境的不同（例如通道长度）对应急标识注视时长的变化有较大影响;⑥ 安全出口附近的标识布局、设计有待改进。虚拟眼动感知实验为评估室内应急疏散标识的合理性和布局优化提供了一个有效的科学途径。 相似文献
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地铁车站人员疏散离散时间模型研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
疏散时间对于保证地铁车站这类复杂建筑结构内人群的安全至关重要,本文借鉴群集流动理论建立了用于计算地铁车站人群移动时间的疏散离散时间模型（EDTM）,模型中的人群流动系数取值不同于传统计算公式中的常量,依据的是经典的车站人群密度与速度函数关系式。将此模型用于某地铁车站站台层,求解楼梯出口疏散人数与时间的关系,并与Building EXODUS疏散软件的模拟结果以及传统地铁车站疏散时间计算公式的计算结果进行了对比,分析表明,EDTM计算结果与EXODUS疏散模拟结果非常接近,且比传统公式计算更为精确和符合实际情况。该计算模型可以为地铁车站人群疏散时间计算、建筑出口性能化设计,以及地铁车站事故应急预案的制定提供更有效的工具。 相似文献
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Hazard warnings and responses to evacuation orders: the case of Bangladesh's cyclone Sidr 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
On 15 November 2007 Cyclone Sidr, a category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh. Despite early cyclone warnings and evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines dissemination of the warning, assesses the warning responses, and explores the reasons why many residents did not evacuate. Field data collected from 257 Sidr survivors in four severely affected coastal districts revealed that more than three-fourths of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders. Despite the sincere efforts of the Bangladesh government, however, lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures occurred. Field data also revealed several reasons why evacuation orders were not followed. The reasons fell into three broad groups: those involving shelter characteristics; the attributes of the warning message itself; and the respondents' characteristics. Based on our findings, we recommend improved cyclone warnings and utilization of public shelters for similar events in the future. 相似文献
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应急疏散是救灾工作的重要环节,合理的路径规划能有效缩短疏散时间,减少人员伤亡.本文以疏散总时间最短为目标,考虑需求控制,容量限制,交通延误,公平分配和资源节约等约束条件,对经典Dijkstra算法进行改进;并采用混合拆分疏散方法,构建洪灾避难应急疏散路径规划模型.运用C#语言编写算法,求解最佳路径,基于自主开发的应急疏散分析工具MiniGIS,对规划路径进行动态模拟,依据反馈逐次优化算法.结果表明:理想算法,延时-改进算法,逆行-改进算法均能为县域尺度的洪灾避难疏散路径选择提供参考,但理想算法适用于组织简单,高度有序的疏散情景,延时-改进算法考虑了除交通拥堵之外的延误,与真实情况更为接近,逆行-改进算法避免了因中途路径调整而出现的"回头路",在时间最短次优的条件下,更有利于疏散过程管理与资源节约,其结果被认为是此次应急疏散路径规划的最优解. 相似文献