Three discriminant function models are raised and cross-compared in order to distinguish geochemical patterns characteristic
for the Drava River floodplain sediments. Based on data representing total element concentrations in samples collected from
alluvium (A), terrace (T), and unconsolidated bedrock (B) at the border of a floodplain, four element clusters emerged accounting
for discrimination between the referred groups of sediments. The most prominent is contaminant/carbonate cluster characteristic
for alluvium. The other two are: silicate cluster typical for unconsolidated geological substrate (Neogene sedimentary rocks);
and naturally dispersed heavy metal cluster separating terrace from the former two groups. Models introducing depth intervals
and single profiles as grouping criteria reveal identical sediment-heavy metal matrices. The second important issue of this
paper is possibility of reclassification of samples originally assigned to one of the a priori defined groups of sediments,
based on established geochemical pattern. The mapped geological units can be reconsidered by the post hoc assignments to a
different group if geological border between alluvium and terrace or between terrace and bedrock can not be established geologically
with absolute certainty. 相似文献
Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue. 相似文献
The spatial distribution of grains in a solidifying igneous rock controls the physical properties of the crystal mush, and
in turn is controlled by the rate of crystal growth and accumulation. A predominant non-spherical habit for igneous minerals
brings into question the use of spherical particles in reference packings used for quantification of spatial distribution.
Furthermore, variations of crystal clustering/ordering with length scale require spatial statistics which take into account
the distribution of particles beyond nearest neighbours. Using random close packings of spherocylinders, we demonstrate the
importance of aspect ratio for the aggregation index (usually known as R) and show that packings of spherical particles have more structure than packings of rods. The spatial distribution functions
demonstrate that the plagioclase grains in the colonnade from the Holyoke basalt are clustered on a length scale of 0.5 mm.
Understanding the controls on grain spatial distribution in igneous rocks will depend on the application of these techniques
to well-understood environments. 相似文献
The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
This study presents a novel preparedness assessment method for assessing hazard mitigation and environmental planning of hillslope communities. A professional questionnaire was utilized to weight each indicator. Communities in Hsinchu, Taichung and Nantou counties with debris flow hazards were taken as study samples. Debris flow risk and landslide susceptibility for each community were determined using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and logistic regression analysis. Thus, a novel risk assessment method for evaluating disaster resilience capacity of hillslope communities was established. This method was then applied to assess casualties caused by Typhoon Herb in 1996 and Typhoon Mindulle in 2004. Additionally, the analytical results generated by this assessment method were discussed with the aim of developing references for implementation of risk analysis, increasing the effectiveness of disaster mitigation, and reducing future loss of life and property. 相似文献
When applied to environmental concerns, framing offers a rigorous conceptual and analytic approach with potentially practical significance for dealing with complex issues relevant to geography. The purpose of this article is to introduce framing concepts, typology and modes of analysis to address issues which geographers commonly treat: disputes over land ownership and uses, competition for water resources, cultural clashes over control of territory and resources and the impact of spatial patterns and structures when siting noxious sites. Framing analysis is applied to three cases of environmental conflict in Israel and, more generally, for understanding conflicts revolving around the management of human habitats in relation to the physical environment. 相似文献
In distribution areas of the Pekul’neiveem and Chirynai formations customary distinguishable in the Koryak Upland, complicated tectonostratigraphic units are composed of alternating thrust sheets of different lithologic composition and age, which are juxtaposed because of widespread thrust faulting, as is proved by the radiolarian analysis. Nineteen radiolarian assemblages of different age are first established here in the Lower Jurassic-Hauterivian succession of siliceous-volcanogenic sediments. In the Lower Jurassic interval, the lower and upper Hettangian, lower and upper Sinemurian, and Pliensbachian beds are recognized. Paleontological characterization is also presented for the Aalenian (or Toarcian?-Aalenian), upper Bajocian, lower and upper Bathonian, and Callovian beds of the Middle Jurassic. Within the Upper Jurassic, the Oxfordian-early Kimmeridgian, late Kimmeridgian-early Tithonian, Tithonian, and late Tithonian-early Berriasian radiolarian assemblages are distinguished. The late Berriasian-early Valanginian, middle-late Valanginian, and Hauterivian radiolarian assemblages are first recognized or compositionally revised. Radiolarians and lithofacies data are used to correlate the tectonostratigraphic units and individualize the jasper-alkali basaltic (lower Hettangian), chert-terrigenous (Hettangian-Sinemurian), jasper-cherty (Pliensbachian-Aalenian), jasper (Bajocian-Hauterivian), jasper-basaltic (upper Bajocian-Valanginian), Fe-Ti basaltic (upper Bajocian-Bathonian), tuffitejasper-basaltic (Bathonian-Hauterivian), and terrigenous-volcanogenic (Bajocian-Valanginian) sequences. The correlation results are extrapolated into other continental areas flanking the Pacific, i.e., to the western Kamchatka, northern and northwestern coastal areas of the Sea of Okhotsk, where the analogous radiolarian assemblages are characteristic of comparable allochthonous units of terrigenous-siliceous-volcanogenic sediments. 相似文献
There are two fundamental questions this article aims to deal with. First, whether a pre-earthquake strengthening of a large
and heterogeneous building stock (the emphasis here is on building types common in S. Europe), is economically feasible or
not, and second what is the optimal retrofit level for mitigating the seismic risk. To this purpose contemporary decision
making tools, namely cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analyses, are tailored to the needs of the present study, and implemented
with the aid of an ad-hoc developed new software application (COBE06). A method for estimating the reduction in structural
vulnerability due to retrofit is proposed, as well as a methodology to determine the optimum retrofit level using the fragility
curve approach. Finally, the proposed methodology is used in a pilot application that concerns the city of Thessaloniki, and
results are drawn for the feasibility of strengthening the reinforced concrete building stock in this city. 相似文献
Self-diffusion of Si under anhydrous conditions at 1 atm has been measured in natural zircon. The source of diffusant for
experiments was a mixture of ZrO2 and 30Si-enriched SiO2 in 1:1 molar proportions; experiments were run in crimped Pt capsules in 1-atm furnaces. 30Si profiles were measured with both Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and nuclear reaction analysis with the resonant
nuclear reaction 30Si(p,γ)31P. For Si diffusion normal to c over the temperature range 1,350–1,550°C, we obtain an Arrhenius relation D = 5.8 exp(−702 ± 54 kJ mol−1/RT) m2 s−1 for the NRA measurements, which agrees within uncertainty with an Arrhenius relation determined from the RBS measurements
[62 exp(−738 ± 61 kJ mol−1/RT) m2 s−1]. Diffusion of Si parallel to c appears slightly faster, but agrees within experimental uncertainty at most temperatures
with diffusivities for Si normal to c. Diffusion of Si in zircon is similar to that of Ti, but about an order of magnitude faster than diffusion of Hf and two
orders of magnitude faster than diffusion of U and Th. Si diffusion is, however, many orders of magnitude slower than oxygen
diffusion under both dry and hydrothermal conditions, with the difference increasing with decreasing temperature because of
the larger activation energy for Si diffusion. If we consider Hf as a proxy for Zr, given its similar charge and size, we
can rank the diffusivities of the major constituents in zircon as follows: DZr < DSi << DO, dry < DO, ‘wet’. 相似文献