国家级数值预报产品分发系统          下载免费PDF全文

相秀珍 《气象》1997,23(8):21-24

随着９２１０工程系统建设的完成，Ｔ１０６中期数值预报产品分发采用了地面通信系统和卫星通信系统两种传输路径。地面通信系统由于受传输能力限制，国家气象中心根据区域、省，地市级的不同接收能力，采取了３种不同的传输方式以满足各级气象台站的需求；  相似文献   

河南省短期区域性暴雨动力诊断及综合预报方案          下载免费PDF全文

李平  孙景兰  张金彬  孔海江  李保生  闫少伟 《气象》1997,23(8):25-28

介介绍了（１）用Ｔ６３数值预报产品对河南省省６－８月区域性暴雨进行物理量诊断分析。（２）用人工智能研制的河南省６－８月分片大－暴雨短短期自动化预报系统与用Ｔ６３数值预报产品资料采用逐步回归分析法和预测误差平方和最不上准则两种选取回归自变量的方法，建立处分片预报方程的综合判别预报。（３）在１９９５，１９９６年７－８月业务预报中试验结果。  相似文献   

汛期HLAFS产品在低纬高原地区预报能力客观检验   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

段旭  何华  许美玲 《气象》1997,23(8):38-42

为充分使用我国暴雨模式（ＨＬＡＦＳ）数值预报产品，该文对１９９６年汛期ＨＬＡＦＳ在低纬高原地区预报能力进行客观检验和效果分析。其结果表明，ＨＬＡＦＳ对高度、气温等形势场有较好预报能力；物理量预报中的动力要素场（垂直运动）和水汽要素场（水汽通量散度）能较好反映云南强降水过程，有较好参考价值，热力要素场（θｓｅ３００－θｓｅ７００）预报效果较差，在实际应用中应注意订正。  相似文献   

一维积云模式计算降雹最大尺度   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

吴保民  盛裴轩  王雨曾 《气象》1997,23(10):3-7

采用一维积云模式计算积云的发展和冰雹的增长，根据当天０７时的探空资料，用模式计算积云的发展，给出云顶高度，云顶温度，云底高度，云中０℃层高度，云内、外温度分布，以及云内上升气流速度和含水量的分布；再由设定计算冰雹的增长，求出雹云中生成的最大冰雹尺度，考虑０℃层以下冰雹的融化，计算出降到地面上的最大冰雹尺度。与实际观测的最大降雹尺度比较，发现计算结果较好，由此得出结论，用此模式预报最在尺度是可行的，  相似文献   

南海热带气旋数值预报模式与全球谱模式的嵌套试验     

万齐林  王康玲 《热带气象学报》1997,13(4):289-296

分析了各嵌套变量的作用和效果，发现采用部分变量嵌套就能取得一定效果，各变量的作用也不完全相同。这样，可以选取作用大，质量好，易处理的变量进行嵌套。并相应地提出了一个边界嵌套处理方案，应用于南海带热带气旋数值预报有限区模式（ＴＬ１０）与全球谐模式（Ｔ６３）的嵌套过程，通过数值预报试验，表明采用该嵌套处理方案能够取得良好的效果。  相似文献   

一个有限区域中尺度模式的设计及预报试验     

刘喜迎  翟子航 《热带气象学报》1997,13(4):323-328

以一个６层原始方程模式的基本动力学框架为基础，设计了一个对物理过程考虑得较全面的中尺度原始方程模式。该模式采用（ｘ，ｙ，σ）坐标系；大气上界取为１０ｈＰａ，提供多种水平边界条件；水平和垂直分辨率均可调；降水方案包括大尺度降水和深厚积云对流降水；地面温度的计算采用地面热量收支方程；考虑了地气和海气交换作用；垂直交换系数的计算采用Ｌｉｏｕｉｓ格式；水平扩散采用二阶形式和四阶形式相结合的方案，扩散系数是网格点位置和风场的函数；积分方案采用经济的中央差格式。在水平格距取８０ｋｍ，垂直方向不等距地分为１６层的分辨率条件下，利用该模式进行逐个个例预报试验。结果表明，模式计算稳定，能较好地报出主要的天气形势，预报的降水也较接近实际。文中给出了一些检验指标的统计结果。还在预报能力及模式特性方面与原６层模式进行了对比。  相似文献   

A TWO-LAYER PRIMITIVE EQUATION OCEAN CURRENT MODEL AND ITS SIMULATION     

杨波  钱永甫 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1997,3(1):85-94

A two-layer primitive equation model is developed in this paper. The capabilities of this model aretested by the use of multiyearly averaged January and July sea surface level pressure fields and windfields which can be diagnosed from the pressure fields. The results show that the ocean surface currentsand undercurrents in the second layer driven by the sea surface wind and the sea surface pressure areclose to the observation. The results are also compared with that of the IAP OGCM and the OSUOGCM.  相似文献   

STUDY ON THE AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON THE INTERANNUAL TIME SCALE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA^*     

Wang Dongxiao  Zhou Faxiu  Qin Zenghao 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1997,11(1):45-56

In this paper we document the correlationship between sea surface temperature(SST) and low level-winds such as sea level wind and 850 hPa wind in the South China Sea(SCS) based on COADS(1958-1987) and ECMWF objective analysis data(1973-1986).Further statistical analyses tell us that there is a fixed SCS basin mode for variations both of SST and low-level winds in the region on the interannual time scale due to air-sea interactions.A simplified,coupled model that is designed following the McCreary and Anderson's(1985) model and includes the feedback between the upper ocean and the circulation of East Asian monsoon demonstrates an interannual oscillation in the coupled air-sea system,which is similar to the observations in the SCS.  相似文献   

NUMERICAL STUDY ON DOMINATING FACTOR AND KEY AREA OF EL NINO CYCLE FORMATION_*     

Zhang Qin  Haines Keith 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1997,11(2):176-186

A coupled model,which is employed to study the dominating factor and key area of El Nino cycle formation,consists of a dynamical ocean model and a statistical atmospheric model.The coupled model with seasonal forcing successfully reproduces the El Nino event cycle which exhibits quasi-regular oscillations with a preferred period of about 4 years.The results show that the heat content(HC) is transported between the eastern and the western tropical Pacific areas.The spatial distribution of HC anomalies for four phases of the whole cycle clearly shows a possible formation mechanism of El Nino.Experiments further suggest that sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific and HC in the central tropical Pacific are the most important factors and the central tropical Pacific is the most important area for determining formation of El Nino cycle.  相似文献   

ON THE VERTICAL DISCRETIZATION OF ATMOSPHERIC MODELS-PART Ⅰ:EXISTING PROBLEMS,DATA PROCESSING AND CHOICE OF VERTICAL COORDINATE AND BASIS FUNCTIONS     

Liao Dongxian  Zhu Yanqiu 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1997,11(2):187-195

Discussions are carried out on the vertical discretization of current atmospheric models.It is pointed out that there exist problems in the integration of the hydrostatic equation and the computation of vertical advection,vertical diffusion and so on.Then some possible ways for solving or alleviating them are suggested.Finally,the choice of vertical coordinate and basis functions is discussed.  相似文献