《巴黎协定》与国际减缓气候变化合作模式的变迁     

高翔 《气候变化研究进展》2016,12(2):83-91

由于温室气体排放的全球外部性属性,减缓气候变化必须通过国际合作实现,必须体现一定程度的中央集权,考虑参与主体广泛性、减缓行动的范围和行动力度三大要素。《联合国气候变化框架公约》《京都议定书》及其“多哈修正案”“坎昆协议”等方案,对中央集权程度和三大要素各有取舍,构建了不同的国际减缓气候变化合作模式,但从实践看都未能解决国际减缓合作的问题。《巴黎协定》构建了“承诺+审评”的新模式,有望实现参与主体和行动范围的全覆盖,并通过透明度、遵约和全球盘点机制鼓励各参与方提高行动力度。然而要实现公约目标和科学应对气候变化的要求,《巴黎协定》下的国际减缓合作必须通过强化资金、技术、能力建设机制来保障,并通过进一步明确中长期量化目标来促进各方提高行动力度。  相似文献   

社会—生态系统体制转换视角下的黄土高原乡村转型发展——以长武县洪家镇为例     

王子侨  石翠萍  蒋维  杨新军 《地理研究》2016,35(8):1510-1524

社会—生态系统理论为中国乡村转型发展的过程格局研究提供了新的分析思路,运用体制转化理论及其研究框架,选取陕西省长武县洪家镇为案例地,从村域尺度社会—生态系统体制变化为切入点揭示了当地乡村转型的背景和环境因素,重点探讨农户尺度的社会—生态系统体制转换影响因素及其稳健性,从微观角度审视西北乡村转型的基本特征,主要结论包括：① 当地乡村社会—生态系统体制已由传统农业体制转变为新型农业体制,其中某些家庭体制正在向非农体制转换。② 家庭特征是农户体制发生转换的客观条件;耕地质量、劳动力数量与质量是农户体制转换的内在动因;户主年龄、文化水平及社会网络是农户体制转换方向的决定因素。③ 农户家庭体制转换呈现出发散和聚合并存现象,且不同家庭的稳健性存在明显差异,基于种植业结构和收入对农户家庭进行分类,不同类型农户家庭体制的稳健型依次表现为其：苹果非农均衡型>非农收入主导型>粮食非农均衡型>苹果收入主导型>传统收入主导型。最后基于农户视角对乡村转型的微观研究进行探讨,并提出后续深化研究的方向和实践启示。  相似文献   

Analysis about the influence on the thermal regime in permafrost regions with different underlying surfaces     

QiangQiang Pang  Lin Zhao  YongJian Ding  ShuXun Li 《寒旱区科学》2010,2(3):0203-0211

In the last several decades, the underlying surface conditions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have changed dramatically, causing permafrost degradation due to climate change and human activities. This change severely influenced the cold regions environment and engineering infrastructure built above permafrost. Permafrost is a product of the interaction between the atmosphere and the ground. The formation and change of permafrost are determined by the energy exchange between earth and atmosphere system. Fieldwork was performed in order to learn how land surface change influenced the thermal regime in permafrost regions. In this article, the field data observed in the Fenghuo Mountain regions was used to analyze the thermal conditions under different underlying surfaces on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results show that underlying surface change may alter the primary energy balance and the thermal conditions of permafrost. The thermal flux in the permafrost regions is also changed, resulting in rising upper soil temperature and thickening active layer. Vegetation could prevent solar radiation from entering the ground, cooling the ground in the warm season. Also, vegetation has heat insulation and heat preservation functions related to the ground surface and may keep the permafrost stable. Plots covered with black plastic film have higher temperatures compared with plots covered by natural vegetation. The reason is that black plastic film has a low albedo, which could increase the absorbed solar radiation, and also decrease evapotranspiration. The ＂greenhouse effect＂ of transparent plastic film might effectively reduce the emission of long-wave radiation from the surface, decreasing heat loss from the earth＇s surface, and prominently increasing ground surface temperature.  相似文献   

中国海相盆地油气保存条件主控因素与评价思路   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

何治亮  李双建  沃玉进  张殿伟  顾忆  周雁 《岩石学报》2017,33(4):1221-1232

中国海相盆地具有多旋回演化、盆-山结构复杂、稳定性差的特点,油气保存条件是制约油气勘探的关键因素。本文在对中国海相盆地构造改造特征和油气藏破坏方式分析的基础上,对影响油气保存条件的主控因素进行了总结,提出了海相多旋回强改造盆地油气保存条件评价的思路方法。中国海相盆地构造演化具有"五世同堂、同序异时"的特点,燕山中晚期和喜马拉雅期是影响油气保存的关键构造变革期。海相油气藏的破坏方式主要有断裂切割、抬升剥蚀、褶皱变动、深埋裂解、岩浆烘烤、流体冲洗、生物降解和长期扩散等8种主要方式。构造、盖层、热体制、流体活动和时间是控制保存环境及其动态演化的主控因素。中国海相盆地油气保存系统的评价思路为,以上述5种主控因素动态分析评价为基础,以地质结构和源-盖组合为依据划分评价单元,以源-盖动态演化,今、古流体系统演化和油气藏动态成藏过程研究为重点,动态地评价油气保存系统,进而优选有利的保存单元。  相似文献   

南印度洋SST在20世纪60年代的年代际转变及其相关气候变化过程     

王天宇  杜岩  廖晓眉 《海洋学报(英文版)》2017,36(1):1-8

The change of sea surface temperature(SST) in the southern Indian Ocean(SIO) during the recent six decades has been analyzed based on oceanic reanalysis and model, as well as atmospheric data. The results show that a thermal regime shift in SIO during the 1960 s, which is not caught enough attentions, has been of equal magnitude to the linear warming since 1970. Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analyses reveal that a thermal shift is combined with atmospheric changes such as the weakening of westerly during the period of 1960–1967. Inner dynamic connections can be defined that when the westerly winds turn weak, the anticyclonic wind circulation between westerly winds and the trade winds decreases, which further reduces the SST to a negative peak in this period. It is noted that the shifts in the 1960 s are also evident for Southern Hemisphere. For example, subtropical high and the entire westerly winds belt at high latitudes both change dramatically in the 1960 s. This large-scaled process maybe link to the change of southern annular mode(SAM).  相似文献   

Copepod assemblages in a highly dynamic equatorial estuary on the Brazilian Amazon Coast          下载免费PDF全文

Priscila Atique  Kelli G. da Costa  Marcela C. Monteiro  Luci C. C. Pereira  Rauquírio M. da Costa 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(1)

This study describes the spatial and temporal dynamics of the copepod fauna in the estuary of the Caeté River, a highly dynamic environment characterized by a unique set of hydrological and hydrodynamic attributes. This ecosystem is part of the Amazon Coastal Zone (ACZ), which sustains one of the world's largest continuous tracts of mangrove forest. In the present study, a predominance of high‐energy conditions characterized by macrotides and strong tidal currents was observed throughout the year. Salinity (0.03 ± 0.05–40.00 ± 0.84) and temperatures (26.43 ± 0.10–30.08 ± 0.43 °C) were higher than during the rainy season at all sampling stations. The highest chl‐a concentration (3.92 ± 1.47–17.63 ± 2.60 mg·m^?3) was recorded at the most oligohaline (innermost) station during the rainy season, while no spatial or seasonal pattern was found in dissolved nutrient concentrations, except for phosphates, which exhibited the highest concentrations during the dry season. A total of 22 copepod taxa was identified, of which the most abundant were Oithona hebes, Oithona oswaldocruzi, Acartia tonsa, Paracalanus quasimodo, Euterpina acutifrons and Pseudodiaptomus marshi. Copepodites and nauplii were also recorded. Mean total copepod abundance varied from 710.73 ± 897 individuals (ind.)·m^?3 at the inner station to 236,486 ± 398,360 ind.·m^?3 near the mouth of the estuary (outermost station). The results reflected rainfall‐influenced oscillations in hydrological variables, mainly salinity, which determined shifts in the distribution of copepods and their community structure within the study area. This pattern may be typical of estuaries in the ACZ with similar hydrodynamic and hydrological attributes that are not influenced by the Amazon River plume.  相似文献   

荒漠化预警方法研究进展   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

宋豫秦  陈妍 《中国沙漠》2017,37(2):205-213

面对当前严峻的荒漠化形势,无论是国际和国家层面的应对框架,亦或是相关学术研究,都一致强调了荒漠化预警的重要性,但实际工作推进缓慢。通过梳理国内外相关研究得到了如下结论：第一,传统荒漠化评价方法不足以为预警工作提供可靠的科学依据;第二,国内的研究者已建立了荒漠化预警框架,但可操作性不强,案例研究仍沿袭传统评价方法;第三,国外预警研究致力于识别荒漠化发生的征兆,早期研究主要基于植被和土壤调查,稳态转换理论提出后,主要的研究方法开始转向基于时间序列和基于斑块分布两大类。今后的预警研究可从以下三方面着手：第一,通过时间序列研究,探索生态系统的空间变化特征;第二,探索如何将荒漠化过程中的各种反馈机制以及人为压力融入到预警模型之中;第三,需要从加强可操作性的角度改善已有的预警框架体系。  相似文献   

Biophysical Regulation of Carbon Flux in Different Rainfall Regime in a Northern Tibetan Alpine Meadow     

CHAI Xi  SHI Peili  ZONG Ning  NIU Ben  HE Yongtao  ZHANG Xianzhou 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2017,8(1):30-41

Inter-annual variability in total precipitation can lead to significant changes in carbon flux. In this study, we used the eddy covariance (EC) technique to measure the net CO₂ ecosystem exchange (NEE) of an alpine meadow in the northern Tibetan Plateau. In 2005 the meadow had precipitation of 489.9 mm and in 2006 precipitation of 241.1 mm, which, respectively, represent normal and dry years as compared to the mean annual precipitation of 476 mm. The EC measured NEE was 87.70 g C m^-2 yr^-1 in 2006 and -2.35 g C m^-2 yr^-1 in 2005. Therefore, the grassland was carbon neutral to the atmosphere in the normal year, while it was a carbon source in the dry year, indicating this ecosystem will become a CO₂ source if climate warming results in more drought conditions. The drought conditions in the dry year limited gross ecosystem CO₂ exchange (GEE), leaf area index (LAI) and the duration of ecosystem carbon uptake. During the peak of growing season the maximum daily rate of NEE and P_max and α were approximately 30%-50% of those of the normal year. GEE and NEE were strongly related to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) on half-hourly scale, but this relationship was confounded by air temperature (T_a), soil water content (SWC) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The absolute values of NEE declined with higher T_a, higher VPD and lower SWC conditions. Beyond the appropriate range of PAR, high solar radiation exacerbated soil water conditions and thus reduced daytime NEE. Optimal T_a and VPD for maximum daytime NEE were 12.7℃ and 0.42 KPa respectively, and the absolute values of NEE increased with SWC. Variation in LAI explained around 77% of the change in GEE and NEE. Variations in R_e were mainly controlled by soil temperature (T_s), whereas soil water content regulated the responses of Re to T_s.  相似文献   

Inter-decadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Impact on Hydrologic Variables in the Haihe River Basin,China     

LI Fuxing  ZHANG Shiyan  CHEN Dong  HE Li  GU Leilei 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2017,8(2):174-184

Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall tests are employed to evaluate the variation in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and hydrological variables in the Haihe River basin calculated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The relationships between those variables and the EASM are also examined. The results indicate consistent 40a periodic variation in both the hydrological variables and the EASM. The hydrologic variables show downward trends in the Haihe River basin over the past 60 years, especially in piedmont regions of the Taihang-Yan Mountains. The variables are closely related to the EASM, whose continuous weakening since the 1970 s has resulted in prolonged drought and severe water shortages in the basin. The periodicity of the EASM index was analyzed using continuous wavelet transform methods. We found the most significant periodic signal of the EASM is ~80 years; therefore, the EASM may reinforce and reach a maximum in the 2040 s, resulting in more precipitation and other impacts on basin water resources. Hydrologic variables in the basin in the 2040 s are predicted, and their spatial distributions in the Haihe River basin are also discussed. These results allow for the estimation of water resources under forecasted EASM, which will be useful for water resources management in the Haihe River basin.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the applicability of climate forecast system reanalysis weather data for hydrologic simulation: A case study in the Bahe River Basin of the Qinling Mountains,China   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Sheng Hu  Haijun Qiu  Dongdong Yang  Mingming Cao  Jinxi Song  Jiang Wu  Chenlu Huang  Yu Gao 《地理学报(英文版)》2017,27(5):546-564

In recent years, global reanalysis weather data has been widely used in hydrological modeling around the world, but the results of simulations vary greatly. To consider the applicability of Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data in the hydrologic simulation of watersheds, the Bahe River Basin was used as a case study. Two types of weather data (conventional weather data and CFSR weather data) were considered to establish a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which was used to simulate runoff from 2001 to 2012 in the basin at annual and monthly scales. The effect of both datasets on the simulation was assessed using regression analysis, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS). A CFSR weather data correction method was proposed. The main results were as follows. (1) The CFSR climate data was applicable for hydrologic simulation in the Bahe River Basin (R ² of the simulated results above 0.50, NSE above 0.33, and |PBIAS| below 14.8. Although the quality of the CFSR weather data is not perfect, it achieved a satisfactory hydrological simulation after rainfall data correction. (2) The simulated streamflow using the CFSR data was higher than the observed streamflow, which was likely because the estimation of daily rainfall data by CFSR weather data resulted in more rainy days and stronger rainfall intensity than was actually observed. Therefore, the data simulated a higher base flow and flood peak discharge in terms of the water balance, except for some individual years. (3) The relation between the CFSR rainfall data (x) and the observed rainfall data (y) could be represented by a power exponent equation: y=1.4789x ^0.8875 (R ²=0.98, P<0.001). There was a slight variation between the fitted equations for each station. The equation provides a theoretical basis for the correction of CFSR rainfall data.  相似文献