郑州市两次不同背景下特大暴雨诊断分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

宋清芝  乔春贵  谷秀杰  林丽 《气象与环境科学》2010,33(3):11-17

利用NCEP资料,根据降水实况分布及各物理量分层平面分布,每隔6 h对特大暴雨中心区所在经、纬向带各物理量场作经、纬向垂直剖面图,结合高空观测图对郑州市两次特大暴雨发生的大环流形势场、触发特大暴雨发生的各物理量场进行诊断分析。结果表明:1)连续性特大暴雨区出现在低空急流轴的前方,一方面是由于低空急流前方水平辐合较强,另一方面低空急流对暖湿空气的输送,使大气不稳定度加强;局地短时性特大暴雨过程主要是冷空气侵入使冷暖湿空气团在郑州上空交汇,其对流不稳定能量释放所致。2)辐合线对暖湿空气的抬升运动起到动力加强作用,是触发中尺度雨团的根源,也是特大暴雨产生的根源。3)连续性暴雨发生、发展时,高空的反气旋起主导作用;局地短时性暴雨发生时,中低空的气旋辐合起主导作用。4)短时性特大暴雨天气,前期有较强的不稳定层结;连续性暴雨天气刚发生时,其前期存在较强的不稳定层结,在暴雨连续发生过程中不一定有强不稳定层结。5)连续性暴雨需要较强的水汽输送带,局地短时性暴雨不要求有明显的水汽输送。  相似文献   

Summertime atmospheric teleconnection pattern associated with a warming over the eastern Tibetan Plateau     

朱伟军 《大气科学进展》2009,26(3):413-422

By using a surface air temperature index (SATI) averaged over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), investigation is conducted on the short-term climate variation associated with the interannual air warming (or cooling) over the TP in each summer month. Evidence suggests that the SATI is associated with a consistent teleconnection pattern extending from the TP to central-western Asia and southeastern Europe. Associated rainfall changes include, for a warming case, a drought in northern India in May and June, and a stronger mei-yu front in June. The latter is due to an intensified upper-level northeasterly in eastern China and a wetter and warmer condition over the eastern TP. In the East Asian regions, the time-space distributions of the correlation patterns between SATI and rainfall are more complex and exhibit large differences from month to month. Some studies have revealed a close relationship between the anomalous heating over the TP and the rainfall anomaly along the Yangtze River valley appearing in the summer on a seasonal mean time-scale, whereas in the present study, this relationship only appears in June and the signal's significance becomes weaker after the long-term trend in the data was excluded. Close correlations between SATI and the convection activity and SST also occur in the western Pacific in July and August: A zonally-elongated warm tone in the SST in the northwestern Pacific seems to be a passive response of the associated circulation related to a warm SATI. The SATI-associated teleconnection pattern provides a scenario consistently linking the broad summer rainfall anomalies in Europe, central-western Asia, India, and East Asia.  相似文献   

昆虫雷达：从研究型到实用型   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

翟保平 《遥感学报》2001,5(3):231-240

ZLC制式的问世使雷达昆虫学的发展方向出现重大转折，往常对昆虫迁出活动的短期，集中的观测将被对迁入事件的长期监测所取代，全自动运行，雷达信号的即时分析与处理使得迁飞性害早的灾变预警可望实现，简要述评了ZLC制式雷达的特性及其在中国的应用前景。  相似文献   

汶川地震频次场异常特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

马禾青  杨明芝  罗国富 《地震工程学报》2021,43(5):1054-1061

地震频次场是描述地震发生频次时空特征的一种数学方法。将2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震震中附近区域（30.0°~33.0° N、101.5°~105.5° E）作为研究对象,以自然正交函数展开方法分析频次场典型场时间因子的时间变化特征。当取前8个特征值对应的典型场时,拟合精度可达0.936 8;其中6个典型场显示有异常变化,占总场比重的0.691 1;异常出现时间最早在2004年9月,即震前3年7个月,最迟在震前1个多月,表现出短临异常特征。研究结果表明利用地震频次场方法能够较为理想地提取汶川8.0级地震震前异常。  相似文献   

岩质滑坡−碎屑流的运动距离计算公式研究     

郑光  许强  彭双麒 《岩土力学》2019,40(12):4897-4906

滑坡?碎屑流的远程运动距离是碎屑流体所能够达到的最大堆积距离,是灾害预警和评估的重要指标。通过总结已有碎屑流运动距离研究成果,从岩体势能入手开展研究,并结合量纲分析,首先建立了运动距离与势能之间的基本方程。其后,采用4种颗粒材料开展岩质碎屑流滑槽试验,研究碎屑体体积V、滑移区坡度?、碎屑粒径d以及最大垂直运动距离H等对碎屑流运动距离L的影响,通过逐步拟合回归,建立了基于势能的岩质滑坡?碎屑流最大水平运动距离的计算公式。最后,采用汶川地震触发的38个岩质碎屑流以及17个其他典型岩质滑坡碎屑流数据对计算公式进行了验证,结果表明,考虑该运动距离计算公式具有较好的可靠性,能够为山区滑坡?碎屑流灾害预警工作提供理论指导。  相似文献   

Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Giant Long‐Runout Landslide: A Case Study of the Gamisi Ancient Landslide in the Upper Minjiang River,China     

GUO Changbao  WU Ruian  ZHANG Yongshuang  REN Sanshao  YANG Zhihu  LI Xue 《《地质学报》英文版》2019,93(4):1113-1124

The upper reaches of the Minjiang River are in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, where active faults are well developed and earthquakes frequently occur. Anomalous climate change and the extremely complex geomechanical properties of rock and soil have resulted in a number of geohazards. Based on the analysis of remote sensing interpretations, geological field surveys, geophysical prospecting and geological dating results, this paper discusses the developmental characteristics of the Gamisi ancient landslide in Songpan County, Sichuan Province, and investigates its geological age and formation mechanism. This study finds that the Gamisi ancient landslide is in the periglacial region of the Minshan Mountain and formed approximately 25 ka BP. The landslide initiation zone has a collapse and slide zone of approximately 22.65×106–31.7×106 m3 and shows a maximum sliding distance of approximately 1.42 km, with an elevation difference of approximately 310 m between the back wall of the landslide and the leading edge of the accumulation area. The landslide movement was characterized by a high speed and long runout. During the sliding process, the landslide body eroded and dammed the ancient Minjiang River valley. The ancient river channel was buried 30-60 m below the surface of the landslide accumulation area. Geophysical prospecting and drilling observations revealed that the ancient riverbed was approximately 80-100 m thick. After the dam broke, the Minjiang River was migrated to the current channel at the leading edge of the landslide. The Gamisi ancient landslide was greatly affected by the regional crustal uplift, topography, geomorphology and paleoclimatic change. The combined action of periglacial karstification and climate change caused the limestone at the rear edge of the landslide fractured, thus providing a lithological foundation for landslide occurrence. Intense tectonic activity along the Minjiang Fault, which runs through the middle and trailing parts of the Gamisi ancient landslide, may have been the main factor inducing landsliding. Studying the Gamisi ancient landslide is of great significance for investigating the regional response to paleoclimatic change and geomorphologic evolution of the Minjiang Fault since the late Pleistocene and for disaster prevention and mitigation.  相似文献   

我国短期气候动力预测模式系统的研究及试验   总被引：38，自引：5，他引：33  

丁一汇  刘一鸣  宋永加  李清泉 《气候与环境研究》2002,7(2):236-246

气候和气候异常对我国的国民经济发展具有重大影响,为提高短期气候预测的准确率,研究动力气候模式短期气候预测新技术至关重要.通过近5年的努力,建立了一套出月动力延伸预报模式,海气耦合的全球气候模式(AGCM+OGCM+海冰+高分辨率印度洋-太平洋海盆模式),区域气候模式季和年际尺度的业务动力模式组成的系统.初步把我国的短期气候预测水平由经验统计方法提高到定量和客观分析的水平上.在此基础上,已建成了一个具有物理基础的统计方法与气候动力模式相结合的综合气候预报系统.  相似文献   

Analytical solution for longitudinal seismic response of long tunnels subjected to Rayleigh waves     

Yusheng Yang  Haitao Yu  Yong Yuan  Mi Zhao 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(10):1371-1385

The longitudinal seismic response of a long tunnel subjected to Rayleigh waves is investigated in this paper. The tunnel is assumed to be infinitely long, has a uniform cross section, and rests on a viscoelastic foundation. The free-field deformation under Rayleigh waves traveling parallel to the tunnel axis is decomposed into two directions, namely, the axial motion and the vertical motion, and transformed into dynamic loads imposed on the tunnel. Based on the Fourier and Laplace integral transform techniques, the governing equations of tunnels are simplified into algebraic equations, and the analytical solutions are obtained with the convolution theorem. The final solutions of the tunnel responses in terms of deflection, velocity, acceleration, axial force, bending moment, and shear force are investigated. The proposed solution is verified by comparison of its results and those from the finite element program ABAQUS. Further parametric analysis is carried out to investigate the influence of soil-structure relative stiffness ratio and wave frequency on dynamic longitudinal responses of the tunnel.  相似文献   

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of hydroclimatic time series with focus on the German part of the Elbe River Basin          下载免费PDF全文

D. Markovic  M. Koch 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2202-2211

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of mean monthly time series of river flow, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, duration of bright sunshine, degree of cloud cover, short wave radiation, wind speed and potential evaporation within or in vicinity of the German part of the Elbe River Basin are analyzed. Statistically significant correlations between the 2–15 year scale‐averaged wavelet spectra of the hydroclimatic variables and the North Atlantic Oscillation‐ and Arctic Oscillation index are found which suggests that such long‐term patterns in hydroclimatic time series are externally forced. The Hurst parameter estimates (H) based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) indicate persistence for discharge, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure and the degree of cloud cover, all having an annual cycle and a broad low‐frequency distribution. Also, DFA H parameter estimates are higher for discharge than for precipitation. The major long‐term quasi‐periodic variability modes of precipitation detected using Singular Spectrum Analysis coincide with those detected in the discharge time series. Upon subtraction of these low‐frequency quasi‐periodic modes, the DFA H parameter estimates suggest absence of the persistence for both precipitation and discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

狭长区域GNSS控制网数据处理方法研究     

罗力 《测绘与空间地理信息》2017,(6):15-17

针对狭长区域GNSS控制网边长差异较大的问题,本文通过划分子网来降低数据处理的难度,从基线处理和网平差两个方面,分析了系统误差来源,研究了基准处理中卫星轨道误差、对流层误差以及网平差中位置、尺度、方位和时间演变基准误差的改正方法,形成了一套高精度数据处理方案。基于该方法,对三峡库区GPS滑坡监测网的实测数据进行了分析与处理,获得了高精度的处理结果,本研究对狭长区域GNSS控制网的建立具有借鉴意义和指导作用。  相似文献