中长期预报在邢台海河流域的应用     

李秀丽 《地下水》2010,32(5):102-104

在分析子牙河水系海河流域降雨径流的基础上,应用回归统计法,通过优选因子进行预报。西台峪站位于邢台临城县境内,属半干旱、半湿润山丘区,年降水主要集中在6—9月,其河流特性为暴涨暴落。通过优选因子建立预报方程。因子的选取我们从物理成因和数理统计等各方面来考察各个影响因素,挑选出具有明确物理意义的预报因子,并把其应用到实际工作中去。探讨了中长期预报在半干旱、半湿润地区的适用性,对计算成果分析遇到的问题提出了一些解决方法。  相似文献   

The Effect of Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling on the Long-term Variability in the Pacific Ocean     

FENG Lin  WU Dexing  LIN Xiaopei  MENG Xiangfeng 《大气科学进展》2010,27(2):393-402

A fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model is applied to highlight the mechanism of the long-term variability (including decadal and longer time scales) in the Pacific Ocean. We are interested in the effect of ocean-atmosphere coupling of different regions during these processes. The control run successfully simulates the Pacific long-term variability, whose leading modes are the Pacific (inter) Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific mode (NPM). Furthermore, three numerical experiments are conducted, s...  相似文献   

Engineering-Geological Problems in the Moravian Karst,Czech Republic     

Milena AMALIKOVA 《《地质学报》英文版》2001,75(3):303-307

The Moravian karst belongs to one of the famous karst regions in Central Europe. It is situated in Moravia in the eastern part of the Czech Republic. According to the geology it is of Devonian age and the main rocks are of different types of limestones. The process of karstification is still active. They are many caves with rich stalagmites and stalactites and the Macocha abyss, the depth of which is 138.5 m. The underground Punkva River flows through the main part of the karst, forming beautiful underground lakes. Typical karst phenomena, such as sinkholes and deep canyons, may be observed on the surface of the terrain. Because of the karstification, water erosion and frost weathering, many steep unstable slopes and walls originated. To solve the stability from a geotechnical point of view is not easy. This requests a special engineering-geological knowledge and experience.  相似文献   

地震危险综合评判的分量分析方法     

潘华  雷建成 《中国地震》1995,11(4):390-396

地震危险性评判，通常需要将多种方法的结果加以综合。为了去除各种方法中可能的重复信息，并对各种方法对危险性评判结论的重要程度进行合理的度量，使综合的结果更加合理，我们引入了分量分析方法。本文首先介绍了分量分析方法的基本原理，其次阐述了该方法在地震危险性综合评判中的应用，最后给出了华北北部中长期地震危险性预测的一个计算实例。  相似文献   

冻结细砂剪切蠕变的若干特性   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

米海珍  吴紫汪 《冰川冻土》1993,15(3):492-497

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InSAR-DEM analyses integrated with geologic field methods for the study of long-term seismogenic fault behavior: Applications in the axial zone of the central Apennines (Italy)     

A. Pizzi  G. Pugliese 《Journal of Seismology》2004,8(3):313-329

The integration of terrain computer modeling with field methods may provide a powerful mechanism for understanding active faults geometry, kinematics and long-term fault behavior. Radar interferometry was used on ERS tandem images to create a geocoded DEM (InSAR-DEM) with a nominal 20-m spatial-resolution of the central Apennines axial zone, a seismically active area characterized by historical destructive earthquakes with M 7. The potential was tested of InSAR-DEM application to the Fucino and Sulmona basin boundary faults, which have well-defined seismological, paleoseismological and/or geological evidence for their having seismogenic sources. In particular, slope maps extracted from the InSAR-DEM were used for fault scarps detection, whether on carbonate bedrock (fault scarp type 2) or affecting continental deposits within the basin (fault scarp type 1), and compared with the available geological and new field data. In order to assess the DEM accuracy and to evaluate morphometric parameters related to the long-term slip-rates of the faults, a set of topographic profiles was extracted from the InSAR-DEM and compared with analogous profiles derived from the available topographic map (i.e., 1/25,000, with 25 m contour interval). In particular, the use of InSAR-DEM analyses showed its better results, with respect to the standard topography, for urban/agricultural gently sloped areas where fault scarps affected unconsolidated and particularly soft sediments (e.g., Fucino basin fault systems), while in severely sloped carbonate ridge and forested areas low coherences and layover effects made InSAR-DEM application problematic. A maximum value of 1.1 ± 0.2 mm yr^–1 slip-rate was obtained for the Fucino boundary fault. Finally, the recognized en-échelon pattern of the Sulmona basin boundary fault, provided a segmentation model for this structure corroborated by geological-structural field data.  相似文献   

Prediction analysis of long-term memory effect for calamity gray series     

CHEN Zhaonan 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2004,47(3)

Are human able to foresee the future? For thou-sands of years close attention has been paid to this issue. At the present day, in order to survive from competition and to predominate over the nature, hu-man抯 desire of forecasting things has become more and more intense. Compared to conquering space, more people yearn for being able to control the time. From ancient to the present, mankind always dream of contacting the past, governing the present and tran-scending the future. Recent years in…  相似文献   

大陆科学钻探与深井地球物理长期观测研究最新进展     

徐纪人  赵志新  许志琴  石井紘 《地质通报》2004,23(8):721-727

随着地球系统科学研究的深入开展以及解决人类所面临的环境、资源、防灾等科学问题的需要，20世纪90年代以来，世界大陆、大洋科学钻探工程研究以及在钻孔深井内进行的地震、地球物理长期观测得到飞速发展，并取得了初步的观测研究成果。本文介绍了日本、德国、美国在深井长期观测方面的最新进展和科研成果，结合中国现实情况，展示了中国大陆科学钻探工程江苏东海现场开展深井地球物理综合观测的初步方案及其观测研究前景。该深井观测站将成为中国第一个无地面干扰的综合性深井地球物理和流体长期实验观测站，预期可以获取客观真实的深井综合地球物理资料，开创中国零干扰条件下地球科学观测研究的崭新局面。  相似文献   

中国山区发展研究的态势与主要研究任务   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

陈国阶 《山地学报》2006,24(5):531-538

山区发展问题是一个世界性难题。山区发展滞后是全球普遍的现象。国际上对山区发展研究十分重视,但发达国家与发展中国家因山区发展的水平和方向不同,对其研究的内容也明显差异。我国山区发展既不同于一般发展中国家,也有别于发达国家,正处于受全国工业化、城镇化快速发展冲击的变革期。山区发展在全国总体战略中占有重要地位,但当前是全国区域发展不平衡的主要贡献者,是“三农”问题的集中区和难点区,是全国脱贫的最后攻坚区。国内对山区发展研究虽然已取得巨大进展,但仍不适应新时期对山区发展的需求,加强全国山区发展研究势在必行。当前我国山区发展研究的重点应放在：山区发展战略,建设社会主义新山区,山区工业化,山区农业产业化,山区聚落和山区脱贫等方面上。应以科学发展观统帅山区发展研究,引入现代发展新理念,引进现代科学新理论和新方法,分别在国家层次、区域层次和聚落层次上开展研究；提倡深入山区,深入农村,深入农户；创建山区发展的长期、连续、定点的跟踪调查、监测,构建全国山区发展社会观测网络。  相似文献   

基于集对分析理论的水电站中长期风险调度问题研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李继清  张玉山  王丽萍  纪昌明 《水文》2006,26(4):21-26

解决水电站中长期风险调度问题,在电力市场环境下显得尤为必要。在纵观国内外水电站中长期风险调度问题研究现状的基础上,应用集对分析理论对市场环境下水电站中长期调度的风险问题进行具体分析,对径流、发电用水和电价进行同异反描述,建立了基于集对分析理论的中长期风险调度模型,并用一次二阶矩法进行求解,可以提供效益与风险的定量关系。同时,对中长期风险调度进行了基于不确定数i的敏感性分析,给出了风险因子变化时所引起的发电收入变化幅度。实例研究表明了该方法的可行性与有效性。  相似文献