Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Bert de Vries  Arthur Beusen  Peter S.C. Heuberger 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(4):635

The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent.  相似文献   

两种不同减排情景下21世纪气候变化的数值模拟   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

辛晓歌  吴统文  王在志 《气象学报》2009,67(6):935-946

利用国家气候中心最新发展的气候系统模式BCC-CSM1.0模拟了相对于B1排放情景,两种不同减排情景(De90和De07,表示按照B1情景排放到2012年,之后线性递减,至2050年时CO_2排放水平分别达到1990和2007年排放水平一半的情景)对全球和中国区域气候变化的影响.结果表明:两种减排情景下模式模拟的全球平均地表气温在21世纪40年代以后明显低于Bl情景,比减排情景浓度低于B1的时间延迟了20年左右;尽管De90减排情景在2050年所达到的稳定排放水平低于De07情景,但De90情景下的全球增温在2070年以后才一致低于De07情景,这种滞后町能与耦合系统(主要足海洋)的惯性有关;至21世纪末,De90和De07情景下的全球增温幅度分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.2℃;从全球分布来看,B1情景下21世纪后30年的增温幅度在北半球高纬度和极地地区最大,减排情景能够显著减少这些地区的增温幅度,减排程度越大,则减少越多;在中国区域,B1情景下21世纪末平均增温比全球平均高约1.2℃,减排情景De90和De07分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.3℃,中国北方地区增温幅度高于南方及沿海地区,减排情景能够显著减小中国西部地区的增温幅度;B1情景下21世纪后30年伞球增温在冬季最高,De90和De07情景分别能够降低各个季节全球升温幅度的17%和10%左右.  相似文献   

1994-2006年长江三角洲和东北平原酸性气体浓度变化   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

徐晓斌  林伟立  颜鹏  张忠华  俞向明 《气候变化研究进展》2008,4(4):195-201

 利用长江三角洲和东北平原地区大气本底站的二氧化硫（SO2）和氮氧化物（NOx）历史资料和近期取得的观测数据,探讨两个地区人为排放对这些气候相关酸性气体的不同贡献。从两种酸性气体过去和现在的浓度水平,估算了它们在两个地区的增长率,比较了NOx与SO2比值的不同变化趋势。结果表明,早在20世纪90年代中期,长江三角洲酸性气体污染水平已经较高,其后主要是NOx浓度显著升高,从而使该地区成为硫和氮污染并重的地区;东北平原酸性气体过去浓度很低,但这些气体以很高的速率增长,虽然目前浓度水平仍然比较低,但未来形势不容乐观。  相似文献   

北京市两种主要温室气体浓度的日变化   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

李晶  王跃思  刘强  王明星 《气候与环境研究》2006,11(1):49-56

通过对北京地区CH4和CO2浓度日变化将近一年的连续监测和数据分析,发现它们日变化从总体上来看具有较强的规律性,CO2的日变化有明显的双峰结构,而CH4则是单峰的结构。化石燃料的燃烧,对CO2日变化峰值出现的时间有着明显的影响,且CH4和CO2的日变化具有较好的相关性。源汇强度的变化和昼夜气象因素的周期变化,是两种温室气体形成稳定日变化形式的主要因子。  相似文献   

松辽盆地徐家围子断陷火山岩气藏天然气成因类型和气源对比   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

刘伟  刘安英 《地质科学》2009,44(2):571-584

松辽盆地徐家围子断陷发育营城组火山岩气藏.钻井统计、地球化学特征及天然气组份分析和碳同位素研究表明徐中和徐东地区天然气源岩有机质偏腐泥型,生气潜力更大.对主力源岩层沙河子组和次要源岩层营城组源岩分布有了新的认识.对营城组天然气的烃类气体和CO₂气的来源进行对比和探讨,认为烃类气受气源的控制,CO₂气藏受深大断裂的控制,与火山岩分布关系不大.连通地幔的气藏中,也没有发现无机烃类气体聚集.徐家围子断陷营城组天然气以烃类气占绝对优势,而且主要为甲烷,二氧化碳成藏并不普遍.天然气甲烷成因类型以煤型气为主,甲烷碳同位素变化范围较小.乙烷、丙烷和丁烷碳同位素均有较大的变化范围,而且具有较好的相关性,说明母质类型多样,乙烷、丙烷和丁烷具有相同的来源.含量大于50%的二氧化碳来源于地幔,属无机成因.含量小于50%的二氧化碳既有无机成因,也有有机成因.  相似文献   

Carbon and Noble Gas Isotopes in the Tengchong Volcanic Geothermal Area, Yunnan, Southwestern China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Shun''ichi NAKAI  Hiroshi WAKITA 《《地质学报》英文版》2004,78(5):1122-1135

Carbon and noble gas isotope analyses are reported for bubbling gas samples from the Tengchong volcanic geothermal area near the Indo-Eurasian suture zone. All samples contain a resolvable component of mantle-derived 3He. Occurrence of mantle-derived 3He coincides with surface volcanism. However, 3He occurs over a larger geographic areathan do surface volcanics. δ13C values for CO2 and CH4 vary from -33.4‰ to 1.6 ‰ and from -52.8‰ to -2.8‰, respectively. He and C isotope systematics indicate that CO2 and CH4 in the CO2-rich gases originated predominantly from magmatic component mixed with crustal CO2 produced from carbonate. However, breakdown of organic matter and near-surface processes accounts for the CH4 and CO2 in N2-rich gases. 3He/4He ratio distribution pattern suggests that mantle-derived He and heat sources of high-temperature system in central Tengchong originate from a hidden magma reservoir at subsurface. CO2-rich gases with the highest 3He/4He ratio (5.2 Ra) may be representative of the  相似文献   

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures     

《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2003

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.  相似文献   

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures     

《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2002

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.  相似文献   

Emission of methane and nitrous oxides from agricultural soils and related global warming potentials of Murshidabad District,West Bengal          下载免费PDF全文

Soham Biswas  Namita Chakma  Swati Mollah 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2017,38(3):313-331

Agricultural activities emit substantial amounts of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxides (N2O), the two important greenhouse gases (GHG) with high global warming potentials (GWP). So far, many studies have already been carried out at national and state level, but lack micro‐level (district or block‐level) inventory in India. The present study sheds light on the flux of CH4 and N2O (from all possible sources) from agricultural soil of various blocks in the Murshidabad district, based on the inventory prepared, using the IPCC methodology, with adjusted emission factors and coefficients appropriate for the local level. The economy of the Murshidabad district almost completely rests on agriculture as more than 80 per cent of the population is directly or indirectly dependent on it for their livelihood. Paddy is the dominating crop, cultivated on more than 60 per cent of the gross cropped area. The present work is based on the review of various literature and reports collected from respective state government offices and websites. Results show that CH4 and N2O emission from the agricultural fields are 126.405 Gg and 0.652 Gg respectively for the year 2011?12 with a large scale spatial variation (block‐level) within the district.  相似文献   

温室气体强迫与东亚亚热带季风演变耦合效应及动力机制研究     

侯立春  林振山  何亮 《地理科学》2018,38(1):151-160

基于主要温室气体（CO₂、CH₄和N₂O）强迫因子和石笋δ¹⁸О观测资料（1~2002 年）,分别利用关联性耦合模型和非线性统计-动力学方法,分析温室气体强迫与东亚亚热带季风演变耦合度的时序规律和定量反演模拟温室气体强迫对近2 000 a东亚亚热带季风演变影响的非线性趋势和相对贡献。研究发现：① 温室气体与季风演变耦合度的高低对应季风的强弱变化,即两者耦合作用越强,东亚亚热带季风越强;反之,两者耦合强度越小,东亚亚热带季风越弱;耦合度峰谷值对应季风极强降水和极端干旱时段。② 时序演变规律为：N₂O和CO₂相互作用与季风演变间耦合效应最强,成为东亚亚热带季风演变的主要驱动力。其次,N₂O一次项和CO₂非线性项对季风演变起主要的负反馈调节机制。③ 时序演变阶段上有所不同：1~180年,CH₄因子对季风演变主要起负反馈调节机制;180~1760年和1760~2002年,对季风演变起主要的驱动和调节机制分别为CO₂因子和N₂O因子;但1900年后N₂O和CO₂相互作用与季风演变的耦合驱动效应近百年来明显增强,耦合度在中等-较强（或极强）之间来回波动转换,耦合作用明显增强,在耦合度由较强（或极强）转弱至中等时,东亚亚热带季风也随之减弱。  相似文献