Population and environment in Australia: issues in the next half century     

I. H. Burnley 《The Australian geographer》2003,34(3):267-280

This paper considers the likely future population in Australia to 2050 and is cast within the context of environmental limitations, to which Griffith Taylor alerted the nation in the 1920s and 1930s, and for which he was vilified in several quarters. While acknowledging the relative accuracy of his long-range forecasts, the arguments here depart from environmental determinism, although varying sets of environmental ethics and values are considered in relation to Australia's global responsibilities and international commitments. It is argued that an increase in population to 26 million by 2050 will not place severe stresses on the physical environment, provided environmental and resource management strategies are put firmly in place, and if consumption and resource use practices are significantly modified. An ideological linkage exists between a resurgent Australian nationalism and a number of environmental perspectives, but one which rejects growth and biological diversity among humans while embracing environmentalism. This inward-looking nationalism–environmentalism is seen as harmful both to Australia's moral integrity as a nation, and in local and world citizenship.  相似文献   

Modelling the effects of temperature and food on individual growth and reproduction of Daphnia and their consequences on the population level     

Karsten Rinke  Thomas Petzoldt 《Limnologica》2003,33(4):293-304

Individual based simulations of population dynamics require the availability of growth models with adequate complexity. For this purpose a simple-to-use model (non-linear multiple regression approach) is presented describing somatic growth and reproduction of Daphnia as a function of time, temperature and food quantity. The model showed a good agreement with published observations of somatic growth (r² = 0.954, n = 88) and egg production (r² = 0.898, n = 35). Temperature is the main determinant of initial somatic growth and food concentration is the main determinant of maximal body length and clutch size. An individual based simulation was used to demonstrate the simultaneous effects of food and temperature on the population level. Evidently, both temperature and food supply affected the population growth rate but at food concentrations above approximately 0.4 mg Cl⁻¹ Scenedesmus acutus temperature appeared as the main determinant of population growth.

Four simulation examples are given to show the wide applicability of the model: (1) analysis of the correlation between population birth rate and somatic growth rate, (2) contribution of egg development time and delayed somatic growth to temperature-effects on population growth, (3) comparison of population birth rate in simulations with constant vs. decreasing size at maturity with declining food concentrations and (4) costs of diel vertical migration. Due to its plausible behaviour over a broad range of temperature (2–20 °C) and food conditions (0.1–4 mg Cl⁻¹) the model can be used as a module for more detailed simulations of Daphnia population dynamics under realistic environmental conditions.  相似文献   

用几何光学模型对方向变化和直方图建模(英文)     

ＤａｖｉｄＬ．Ｂ．Ｊｕｐｐ 《遥感学报》1997,(Z1)

森林和林地的图象二向性反射函数是一个统计函数，较之小尺度的树冠，它更多地用于大尺度的均匀覆盖的地块。用航空象片和高空间分辨率扫描仪数据作的图象热点影响研究在小尺度下显示出很大方差，而且，太阳和观测角度的交互变化进一步增加了这种反射各向异性变化的方差并有规律地继续呈现在分辨率低的图象中，这被称作ＢＲＶＦ或二向性反射方差函数。近年来，作为一种解释结构的手段，高分辨率图象的方向性方差和直方图结构越来越受到重视，这方面的数据也越来越多。这项工作是利用图象方差来解释结构问题（Ｓｔｒａｈｌｅｒ和李小文倡导）的一种延伸，并在过去１５年中由众多人员作了大量工作。在树冠尺度下，森林的直方图和二向反射方差函数可以计算出来，这里利用了近似迭代函数来处理这些数据并和数值积分模拟进行了对比，结果显示可对二向性反射方差函数的测量和引入直方图的各向异性进行准确建模。  相似文献   

Are assemblages of black bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri) in different estuaries genetically distinct?     

J.A. Chaplin  G.A. Baudains  H.S. Gill  R. Mcculloch  I.C. Potter 《International Journal of Salt Lake Research》1997,6(4):303-321

Samples of the estuarine-spawning teleostAcanthopagrus butcheri were collected from nine estuaries and a coastal lake, located in the Pilbara and South-western drainage divisions of Western Australia and distributed along a coastline covering a distance of nearly 2,000 km. The patterns of allozyme variation in these samples were used to explore the extent to which there was variation in the genetic compositions of black bream assemblages in geographically-isolated estuarine systems, and whether or not any such variation could be related to the geographical location or type of estuary. Although only three of 36 scorable loci (Gpi-1, Ldh andMdh-2) exhibited variation that could be used for analysis, there was considerable variation in allele frequencies at these loci among the different samples (mean F_ST=0.166). Much of the detected variation was attributable to differences between the samples collected from the two drainage divisions, which are located in very different climatic regions. Furthermore, the genetic compositions of samples from neighbouring estuaries were typically more similar to each other than to those of samples collected from more distantly-located systems. However, the assemblages in one west coast and two south coast estuaries, that are closed to the ocean for extensive periods of time during the year, all showed very similar genetic compositions. Nevertheless, it is crucial to recognise that, pairwise comparisons of samples collected from the different estuaries, both within and between the two drainage divisions, almost invariably showed statistically significant differences in allele frequencies at one or more loci. Thus, our results indicate that the local populations of black bream in individual estuaries are genetically distinct, which is probably a consequence of both a limited movement by individuals between estuaries and the effects of differences in regional and local environmental conditions.  相似文献   

阿克苏霜期规律初探   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈颖  史红政 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2004,27(2):16-17

通过分析1971～2000年阿克苏市初、终霜期及无霜期序列，初步探讨了它们的变化趋势、分布频率等气候特征，指出了初霜期推迟、终霜期提前、无霜期增长的变化趋势，而这种变化趋势与气候变暖理论相一致。  相似文献   

三峡大坝建成后长江输沙量的减少及其对长江三角洲的影响   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

李从先  杨守业  范代读  赵娟 《第四纪研究》2004,24(4):495-500

三峡大坝建成之后,大量泥沙滞留于库区,出库泥沙量减少,坝下河床冲刷而提供相当数量的泥沙,支流湖泊供沙也发生变化,这将使进入河口地区的泥沙有所减少。三峡大坝以上长江干流和支流建设新的大坝,南水北调、封山育林、退耕还林以及减少水土流失都将进一步减少长江进入河口地区的泥沙。由此估计,三峡大坝建成后的百年内长江输入河口地区的泥沙约为2.0×10⁸～2.5×10⁸t/a;冰后期长江三角洲形成和发育期间的长江年均输沙量为1.84×10⁸～2.28×10⁸t。二者的数值相当接近,然而与近50年的观测(4.33×10⁸t/a)相差甚远,长江流域的气候变化和人类活动可能是造成这一现象的原因。文章着重说明中国和长江上游人口的增长、种植作物的改变可能是水土流失、长江泥沙量增长的主要原因。  相似文献   

Fitting the Linear Model of Coregionalization by Generalized Least Squares   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Bernard Pelletier  Pierre Dutilleul  Guillaume Larocque  James W. Fyles 《Mathematical Geology》2004,36(3):323-343

In geostatistical studies, the fitting of the linear model of coregionalization (LMC) to direct and cross experimental semivariograms is usually performed with a weighted least-squares (WLS) procedure based on the number of pairs of observations at each lag. So far, no study has investigated the efficiency of other least-squares procedures, such as ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized least squares (GLS), and WLS with other weighing functions, in the context of the LMC. In this article, we compare the statistical properties of the sill estimators obtained with eight least-squares procedures for fitting the LMC: OLS, four WLS, and three GLS. The WLS procedures are based on approximations of the variance of semivariogram estimates at each distance lag. The GLS procedures use a variance–covariance matrix of semivariogram estimates that is (i) estimated using the fourth-order moments with sill estimates (GLS₁), (ii) calculated using the fourth-order moments with the theoretical sills (GLS₂), and (iii) based on an approximation using the correlation between semivariogram estimates in the case of spatial independence of the observations (GLS₃). The current algorithm for fitting the LMC by WLS while ensuring the positive semidefiniteness of sill matrix estimates is modified to include any least-squares procedure. A Monte Carlo study is performed for 16 scenarios corresponding to different combinations of the number of variables, number of spatial structures, values of ranges, and scale dependence of the correlations among variables. Simulation results show that the mean square error is accounted for mostly by the variance of the sill estimators instead of their squared bias. Overall, the estimated GLS₁ and theoretical GLS₂ are the most efficient, followed by the WLS procedure that is based on the number of pairs of observations and the average distance at each lag. On that basis, GLS₁ can be recommended for future studies using the LMC.  相似文献   

天津市湿地环境变迁及成因分析   总被引：11，自引：4，他引：11  

曹喆  丁立强  梅鹏蔚 《湿地科学》2004,2(1):74-79

应用3S技术对天津湿地环境进行调查，结合地面采集的历史和现状数据，全面分析了天津湿地环境变迁的自然和人为因素。近一个世纪以来，天津湿地持续减少，天然湿地丧失殆尽，人为因素影响是天津湿地环境变迁的主要原因。城市拓展、经济开发对湿地的占用以及水环境污染是目前湿地面临的主要威胁。保护天津湿地要从搞好城市土地利用规划、调整产业结构、控制水污染、加强湿地保护区管理、尽快制定湿地保护法等方面入手。、  相似文献   

Assessing natural and cultural influence on soil in remnant tropical woodlands     

C Y Jim  Michael W H Chan 《Area》2004,36(1):6-18

Rural Hong Kong contains culturally protected enclaves of remnant woodlands that provide sanctuary for vegetation, wildlife and soil. This study focuses on the influence of natural and cultural factors on soil properties in woodlands with different human activities. At each of the nine selected sites, two pits were dug to collect soil samples for analysis of 24 physical and chemical properties. Analyses of variance between soil attributes and site factors suggest the prominence of woodland size, and important contribution of topography, aspect and parent material. Soil indicators of human impacts and the tenacity of woodland soil towards anthropogenic disturbance were demonstrated.  相似文献   

基于方差分量估计的自适应融合导航   总被引：23，自引：4，他引：23  

杨元喜  高为广 《测绘学报》2004,33(1):22-26

多源传感器观测信息的精度一般不一致,利用方差分量估计理论可以合理地顾及各传感器观测信息在融合导航解中的权比.首先给出基于多源观测信息的融合导航解算模式,进而基于方差分量估计讨论了各传感器观测信息在融合导航解中的合理平衡问题,然后应用自适应因子顾及动力学模型预报信息的贡献,给出了计算过程,并利用模拟数据进行了试算与比较.  相似文献