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81.
一次较成功的中期地震概率预测实例 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
1988年底依据地震活动性资料,运用MYCIN不精确推理方法,提出了1989年及稍长时间的中国大陆中期地震趋势预测概率图,这是一次较成功的中期地震概率预测实例。 相似文献
82.
通过对山西境内地震序列的分析计算,得出一个适合山西地区地震活动的概率模型。并以此模型对1989年前后的地震活动进行了计算,给出1989年以来山西地震频繁活动的理论依据,对今后的地震活动进行了预测。 相似文献
83.
本文叙述了地震活动的综合概率预报方法,并对宁夏及青海地区(35°00’-41°00’N,100°00’-107°40’E)1970年以来的地震活动资料进行了统计计算,对1992年-1993年该区地震活动进行了综合预报效能检验。并据此对该区1994年-1995年的地震趋势做了估计。 相似文献
84.
中国大陆原地复发强震的基本特征及其预测 总被引:7,自引:3,他引:7
在印度板块与欧亚块相碰撞形成的喜马拉雅弧板块边界力作用下,中国大陆有自己独特的现代构造运动和地震活动基本格架。格架是两组近似于对数螺线的现代构造滑移线,即最大剪切应力和剪切应变集中释放的区,带。在这种格架控制下,强震和大震在原地或基本在原地重复发生是中国大陆地震活动的重要特征。本文还提出了i-f-j复发轮回模式和估计当前轮回强震复发时间的概率分布以及计算未来强震复发概率分式。为中,长期预测原地复发 相似文献
85.
本文根据极值理论建立了烈度超越给定值Ij的平均重现期公式,根据最大熵原理建立了未来T年烈度超越给定值Ij的概率和烈度超越给定值Ij的平均重现期之间的关系式。利用1022─1993年的地震资料,计算了临汾(36.10°N,111.50°E)周围4级以上地震在临汾造成的烈度,绘制了未来100年临汾的烈度超越概率曲线(地震危险性曲线)。结果表明,计算场地烈度的极值理论方法可作为地震危险性分析的综合概率法的补充和验证。 相似文献
86.
A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China
During the period from 1800 to 1989,the degree of fatalities(?from earthquakes in North China(Lat.34.0°-42.0°N,Long.107.5°-125.0°E)varied exponentially with the frequency of earthquake events(N),namely:N=37.71 exp(-0.72?(E-logD,D:deaths).For the periods from 1988 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2009,the probabilities for earthquakes to cause one thousand or more deaths in North China are estimated to be 0.37 and 0.50,respectively,by using the Gumbel's extreme value theory. 相似文献
87.
Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation. 相似文献
88.
本文研究了生命线工程系统中运行设施的元件破坏状态和可靠性分析方法,给出元件的破坏状态分级标准、判断准则和元件可靠度的计算方法,这对建立一个实用的生命线工程抗震能力分析的专家系统是十分有意义的。 相似文献
89.
Mohammad Ashtari Jafari 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):237-252
The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters
of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical
uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic
uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian
approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined
for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located
within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the
range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants
is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and
recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an
updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes
which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The
highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability
is high. 相似文献
90.
Simultaneous identification of a single pollution point-source location and contamination time under known flow field conditions 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
A theoretical framework is presented that allows direct identification of a single point-source pollution location and time in heterogeneous multidimensional systems under known flow field conditions. Based on the concept of the transfer function theory, it is shown that an observed pollution plume contains all the necessary information to predict the concentration at the unknown pollution source when a reversed flow field transport simulation is performed. This target concentration C0 is obtained from a quadratic integral of the observed pollution plume itself. Backwards simulation of the pollution plume leads to shrinkage of the C0-contour due to dispersion. When the C0-contour reduces to a singular point, i.e. becomes a concentration maximum, the position of the pollution source is identified and the backward simulation time indicates the time elapsed since the contaminant release. The theoretical basis of the method is first developed for the ideal case that the pollution plume is entirely known and is illustrated using a synthetic heterogeneous 2D example where all the hydro-dispersive parameters are known. The same example is then used to illustrate the procedure for a more realistic case, i.e. where only few observation points exist. 相似文献