鹤岗地震台阵勘选数据分析     

胡宝慧  常金龙  姜博  欧阳兆国 《地震地磁观测与研究》2020,41(6):32-37

作为"一带一路"地震台网项目的子项目,鹤岗地震台阵区域位置特殊,在地震监测中担负着重要使命。2019年,黑龙江省地震局采用Reftek-130B地震数据采集器和CMG-3T宽频带地震计,完成台阵前期勘选工作,连续波形记录时间30天以上,波形记录质量良好。利用该台阵已勘选的15个点位连续波形记录,估计各点位功率谱,通过绘制概率密度函数图和单频曲线,初步分析该地区背景噪声变化特征。分析结果表明,各勘选点位的噪声功率谱密度相对稳定,部分点位受人类活动影响,在10 Hz以上存在突变,3-5、3-6、4-4子台高频变化较为明显,勘选点位的背景噪声变化特征可为今后的地震台阵建设提供依据。  相似文献   

Development of bedforms due to waves blocked by a counter current     

Debasmita Chatterjee  Subir Ghosh  Bijoy S. Mazumder  Kaushik Sarkar 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(6):1330-1345

Experiments are conducted in a laboratory flume on the propagation of a surface wave against unidirectional flow with a sediment bed. This article presents the spatial variation of bedforms induced by the wave-blocking phenomenon by a suitably tuned uniform fluid flow and a counter-propagating wave. The occurrence of wave-blocking is confirmed by finding a critical wave frequency in a particular flow discharge in which the waves are effectively blocked and is established using the linear dispersion relation. The purpose of this work is to identify wave-blocking and its influence on the development of bedforms over the sediment bed. Interestingly bedform signatures are observed at a transition of bedforms in three zones, with asymmetric ripples having a steeper slope downstream face induced by the incoming current, followed by flat sand bars beneath the wave-blocking zone and more symmetric ripples below the wave-dominated region at the downstream. This phenomenon suggests that the sediment bed is segmented into three different regions of bed geometry along the flow. The deviations of mean flows, Reynolds stresses, turbulent kinetic energy, and power spectral density due to the wave-blocking phenomenon are presented along the non-uniform flow over sediment bed. The bottom shear stress, bed roughness and stochastic nature of the bedform features are also discussed. The results are of relevance to engineers and geoscientists concerned with contemporary process as well as those interested in the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental conditions from fossil bedforms. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

考虑降雨空间变化的随机产汇流模型     

周艳  梁忠民  黄一昕  李大洋  李彬权 《湖泊科学》2018,30(5):1450-1457

引入两个负指数型差值函数,估计降雨量的概率分布,以此描述流域降雨空间变异性问题.将降雨量空间统计分布与垂向混合产流模型耦合进行产流量计算,即对地表径流,采用超渗产流模式,根据降雨与土壤下渗能力的联合分布推求其空间分布;对地面以下径流,采用蓄满产流模式,以地表渗入量的均值作为输入,进行简化处理以提高其实用性;最终推导出总产流量概率分布函数计算公式.将流域概化成一个线性水库,并根据随机微分方程理论,推导任一计算时段洪水流量的概率分布,从而构建了一个完整的随机产汇流模型.以淮河支流黄泥庄流域为例进行应用研究,结果表明,该模型可提供洪水过程的概率预报,可用于防洪风险分析,若以概率分布的期望值作为确定性预报,亦具有较高精度.  相似文献   

线性合成概率方法在华北地区地震趋势研究中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

于伟  张双凤  孙晴  屈银生  吴小平 《华北地震科学》2006,24(3):20-23

华北地区历史地震频繁,2000年以来出现地震平静现象,为了更好地对这一现象进行分析,我们利用基于地震周期谱分析的线性合成概率预测方法,针对晋冀蒙交界地区、冀鲁豫交界地区、唐山老震区、阴山燕山地震带进行研究。研究结果表明,这一方法对这些地区的地震活动有一定的预测能力,并给出了R值评分检验效果。  相似文献   

Applying Bayesian approach to predict deformations during tunnel construction          下载免费PDF全文

《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(15):1765-1784

In this paper a fully probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian statistical method is presented to predict ground settlements in both transverse and longitudinal directions during gradual excavation of a tunnel. To that end, the convergence confinement method is adopted to give estimates of ground deformation numerically. Together with in situ measurements of the evolution of vertical deflections at selected points along the tunnel line, it allows for the construction of a likelihood function and consequently in the framework of Bayesian inference to provide posterior improved knowledge of model parameters entering the numerical analysis. In this regard, the Bayesian updating is first exploited in the material identification step and next used to yield predictions of ground settlement in sections along the tunnel line ahead of the tunnel face. This methodology thus makes it possible to improve original designs by utilizing an increasing number of data (measurements) collected in the course of tunnel construction.  相似文献   

A FORM-based approach for probabilistic analysis in geotechnics: Application to a reinforced concrete drainage culvert     

Jie Zhang  Zhi Zheng  Yongchang Cai  Ning Li  Dongmei Zhang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(12):2090-2105

As numerical models are increasingly used as a design tool in geotechnical engineering, it is highly desirable if geotechnical reliability analysis can be conducted based on numeral models. Currently, the practical use of geotechnical reliability analysis-based numerical models is still quite limited. In this study, an easy to access method is derived to conduct geotechnical reliability analysis based on numerical models. To facilitate its application, a procedure is outlined to implement the suggested method such that geotechnical reliability analysis can be automated using existing geotechnical numerical packages. The procedure is illustrated in detail with an example, and the source codes provided can be easily adapted to analyze other similar problems. The method described in this paper is used to study the reliability of a deteriorating reinforced concrete drainage culvert in Shanghai, China. The suggested method provides a convenient means for reliability analysis of complex geotechnical problems.  相似文献   

基于GPU技术的风暴潮集合预报     

刘秋兴  姜金荣  于福江  张长宽  董剑希  宋晓姜  王玉竹 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,42(5):77-86

台风预报的准确性在风暴潮预报中起着重要作用。台风强度和路径的不确定性意味着使用集合模式来预报风暴潮。本文利用中央气象台的最优路径台风参数驱动国家海洋环境预报中心业务化的水动力学模型，开展华南沿海的风暴潮模拟，模式模拟结果与实测吻合较好。为了改进计算效率，采用CUDA Fortran 语言对模型进行了改造，改造后的模型在计算结果与原模型基本一致的基础上，计算时间缩短了99%以上。通过融合欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECWMF）的50条路径与3种可能台风强度构造出了150个台风事件，并用150个台风事件驱动改进的风暴潮数值模型，计算结果可以提供集合预报产品和概率预报产品。通过“山竹”台风风暴潮过程可以发现集合平均预报结果和概率预报结果与实测吻合较好。改进的数值模型可以运行普通工作站上，非常适合风暴潮集合预报，并且可以提供更好的决策产品。  相似文献   

高分二号遥感影像提取冬小麦空间分布   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

宋德娟  张承明  杨晓霞  李峰  韩颖娟  高帅  董海燕 《遥感学报》2020,24(5):596-608

精细的农作物空间分布数据对于资源、环境、生态、气候变化和粮食安全问题均具有重要的意义,卷积神经网络已经成为从遥感影像中提取农作物空间分布数据的主要方法,但提取结果中的种植区域边缘往往比较粗糙。本文以高分二号遥感影像为数据源,选择冬小麦为提取目标,利用RefineNet模型和最大后验概率模型构建冬小麦遥感提取模型WWRSE(Winter Wheat Remote Sensing Extraction),获取精细的冬小麦空间分布数据。WWRSE模型利用RefineNet网络提取像素的语义特征,使用改进的SoftMax模型生成像素的类别概率向量;以类别概率向量的最大分量与次大分量的差值作为置信度,根据置信度将类别概率向量分为可信和不可信两组,可信组直接使用最大分量对应的类别标签作为相应像素的分类结果;结合最大后验概率模型确定不可信组像素的分类结果。利用随机梯度法对WWRSE模型进行训练。选择SegNet、DeepLab、RefineNet作为对比模型进行实验,WWRSE提取结果的精度为92.9%,比SegNet提高了13.8%,比DeepLab提高了10.9%,比RefineNet提高了8.6%。实验结果表明WWRSE模型在提取冬小麦空间分布数据方面具有一定的优势。WWRSE模型提取的结果能够为大范围冬小麦种植面积统计提供依据。  相似文献   

基于随机情景模拟的船舶溢油危害后果量化评价——以台湾海峡北部水域为例     

柴田  熊德琪 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(1):41-48

为克服典型情景模拟法的缺陷,综合考虑船舶溢油发生的随机性、海洋水动力和风场的不确定性以及环境资源的敏感性,提出基于随机情景模拟的船舶溢油危害后果定量评价方法。通过随机情景模拟和网格化统计得到敏感区的溢油污染概率和最快到达时间,结合环境敏感指数和溢油量等参数计算综合溢油危害指数,并将其作为溢油危害后果定量评价指标。结果表明:台湾海峡北部水域不同季节发生船舶溢油的危害后果大小依次为夏季(27.8)秋季(25.5)春季(21.1)冬季(16.2),夏季溢油事故对牛山岛保护区的污染概率和危害后果相对最大(P=60%,Ck=41.2),达到较高级别;其他季节东甲列岛保护区的溢油污染概率和危害指数均为最高。随机情景模拟能够弥补事故情景,为评价船舶溢油危害后果风险提供一种新方法。  相似文献   

Research on the risk-based model for regional emergency resource allocation for ship-source oil spill     

ZHANG Chunchang  AN Wei  XIONG Deqi  LIU Baozhan  SONG Shasha 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(11):133-138

The key point for rational allocation of emergency resources is to match the oil spill response capacity with the risk of oil spill. This paper proposes an innovative risk-based model for quantitative regional emergency resource allocation, which comprehensively analyzes the factors such as oil spill probability, hazard consequences, oil properties, weathering process and operation efficiency, etc. The model calculates three major resources, i.e., mechanical recovery, dispersion and absorption, according to the results of risk assessment. In a field application in Xiaohu Port, Guangzhou, China, and the model achieved scientific and rational allocation of emergency resources by matching the assessed risk with the regional capacity, and allocating emergency resources according to capability target. The model is considered to be beneficial to enhancing the resource efficiency and may contribute to the planning of capacity-building programs in high-risk areas.  相似文献