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101.
本文通过对陕西南部的佛坪县2002年6月8日——lO日的降水达到了489mm的特大暴雨降水过程的初步分析,对进一步了解大尺度环流背境场下的强降水过程的成因,提高对暴雨天气过程的预报能力是非常有益的;本文收集的降水过程期间的天气图和传真图资料对预报员和海洋工程技术人员有参考价值。  相似文献   
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At the circular Babi Island in the Flores tsunami (1992) and pear shaped island in the Okushiri event (1993), unexpectedly large tsunami run‐up heights in the lee of conic islands were observed. The flume and basin physical model studies were conducted in the Coastal Hydraulic Laboratory, Engineering Research and Development Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to provide a better understanding of the physical phenomena and verify numerical models used in predicting tsunami wave run‐up on beaches, islands, and vertical walls. Reasonably accurate comparison of run‐up height of solitary waves on a circular island has been obtained between laboratory experimental results and two‐dimensional computation model results. In this study we apply three‐dimensional RANS model to simulate wave run‐up on conical island. In the run‐up computation we obtain that 3D calculations are in very good comparison with laboratory and 2D numerical results. A close examination of the three‐dimensional velocity distribution around conical island to compare with depth‐integrated model is performed. It is shown that the velocity distribution along the vertical coordinate is not uniform: and velocity field is weaker in the bottom layer and higher on the sea surface. The maximum difference (about 40%) appears at the time when solitary wave reached the circular island.  相似文献   
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A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.  相似文献   
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The circulation pattern and the pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay are simulated by the developed three-dimensional baroclinic model. The Marmaris Bay is located at the Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey. Since the sp ring tidal range is typically 20- 30 cm, the dominant forcing for the circulation and water exchange is due to the wind action. In the Marmaris Bay, there is sea outfall discharging directly into the bay. and that threats the bay water quality significantly. The current patterns in the vicinity of the outfall have been observed by tracking drogues which are moved by currents at different water depths. In the simulations of pollutant transport, the coliforms-counts is used as the tracer. The model provides realistic predictions for the circulation and pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay. The transport model component predictions well agree with the results of a laboratory model study.  相似文献   
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Evaluating fishery impacts using metrics of community structure   总被引:8,自引:14,他引:8  
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