基于机器学习算法的县域台风灾害损失风险评估     

杨绚  张立生  王铸 《热带气象学报》2022,38(5):651-661

基于2008—2019年我国台风县(区)灾情的直接经济损失数据,根据经济损失率将台风灾害经济损失风险分为五类,考虑台风灾害的致灾因子和孕灾环境因子共选取10个解释变量,采用五种经典的机器学习算法,包括支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)、随机森林(Random Forest,RF)、AdaBoost、XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting Machine)和LightGBM(Light Gradient Boosting Machine),分别构建台风灾害经济损失风险评估模型,选出准确率最高的模型,应用于经典台风过程并进行检验评估。结果表明:基于RF算法的台风灾害经济损失风险模型的准确率最高;利用RF、XGBoost、LightGBM、AdaBoost和SVM算法构建模型的准确率依次为0.69、0.63、0.62、0.45和0.41。选择RF算法构建的台风灾害经济损失风险模型的解释变量表明,致灾因子是最主要的解释变量,其中,降雨导致损失的重要性超过风速。该模型在训练集和测试集上对风险分类的TS评分为0.55和0.51,但对每种风险类别的辨别能力存在差异,对于最低风险和最高风险的分类效果较好,对于较高风险和中等风险的分类能力不足。利用该模型对2017年第13号台风“天鸽”的经济损失进行检验评估,评估结果与实际台风灾害经济损失的风险等级较一致,各风险等级的准确率均达到0.7以上,TS评分在0.58以上,空报率和漏报率分别在0.31和0.25以下。   相似文献   

一类具有随机时滞的受扰马尔科夫跳变系统有限时间稳定性     

陈海洋  刘妹琴 《南京气象学院学报》2017,9(4):430-436

本文研究了一类具有随机时滞的受扰马尔科夫跳变线性系统的有限时间稳定性问题.通过引入服从伯努利分布的随机变量刻画了时滞变化的随机特性.本文首先分析了系统的随机有限时间稳定性,基于分析结果设计了反馈控制器,使得系统状态在马尔科夫跳变、随机时滞和外界扰动等并存时,在给定时间内收敛于某一区域而不超过指定的上界值,并可获得该上界的具体值.最后通过数值仿真验证了所提算法的有效性.  相似文献   

无证书代理签名方案     

张亦辰  李继国  袁泓 《南京气象学院学报》2017,9(5):490-496

为了避免基于身份密码系统中的密钥托管问题和传统公钥密码的证书管理问题,利用双线性对,提出了一种无证书代理签名方案.基于计算Diffie-Hellman困难问题假定,在随机预言模型下证明了方案的安全性.与已有的同类方案的性能进行了比较,结果表明提出的方案在计算代价和通信代价上有一定的优势.  相似文献   

基于SVD的叠后地震资料随机噪声分离方法     

姜宇航  刘财  宋超  高月  鹿琪 《世界地质》2016,35(2):543-548

笔者提出基于SVD的叠后地震资料随机噪声分离方法,在地震剖面的同相轴水平或接近水平时可以有效地分离出地震剖面中的随机噪声,提高地震剖面的分辨率。为了说明SVD随机噪声分离方法的有效性和高效性,建立模型试验,在合成地震记录中加入随机噪声,之后进行实际地震资料处理,分别用SVD方法和基于小波变换的分层阈值方法对加入随机噪声的合成记录和加入随机噪声的实际资料进行随机噪声分离处理。对比发现,SVD随机噪声分离方法相比于基于小波变换的分层阈值方法更加有效且高效。  相似文献   

Markov random field-based method for super-resolution mapping of forest encroachment from remotely sensed ASTER image     

L.K. Tiwari  S.K. Sinha  S. Saran  V.A. Tolpekin  P.L.N. Raju 《国际地球制图》2016,31(4):428-445

Forest encroachment (FE) is a problem in Andaman and Nicobar Islands (ANI) in India for environment and planning. Small gaps created in the forest slowly expand its periphery disturbing the biodiversity. Therefore, intrusion of poachers, slash and burn and other factors causing FE must be carefully detected and monitored. Remote sensing offers a great opportunity to accomplish this task because of its synoptic view. Conventional classification methods with remotely sensed images are problematic because of small size of FE and mixed landcover composition. This study presents an application of super-resolution mapping (SRM) based on Markov random field for detection of FE using ASTER (15 m) images. The SRM results were validated using multispectral IRS LISS-IV (5.8 m) image. Non-contiguous FE patches of various sizes and shapes are characterized using the spatial contextual information. The novelty of this approach lies in the identification and separability of small FE pockets which could not be achieved with pixel-based maximum likelihood classifier (MLC). The SRM parameters were optimized and found comparable to previous studies. Classification accuracy obtained with SRM at scale factor 3 is κ = 0.62 that is superior to accuracy of MLC (κ = 0.51). SRM is a promising tool for detection and monitoring of FE at Rutland Island in ANI, India.  相似文献   

Uncertainty reduction and sampling efficiency in slope designs using 3D conditional random fields     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2016

A method of combining 3D Kriging for geotechnical sampling schemes with an existing random field generator is presented and validated. Conditional random fields of soil heterogeneity are then linked with finite elements, within a Monte Carlo framework, to investigate optimum sampling locations and the cost-effective design of a slope. The results clearly demonstrate the potential of 3D conditional simulation in directing exploration programmes and designing cost-saving structures; that is, by reducing uncertainty and improving the confidence in a project’s success. Moreover, for the problems analysed, an optimal sampling distance of half the horizontal scale of fluctuation was identified.  相似文献   

星斑川鲽家系建立及遗传效应分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

田永胜  李祥孔  段会敏  李洪  宋莉妮  陈张帆  唐江  王波  孙宗哲 《海洋学报》2016,38(6):21-31

星斑川鲽是优良的鲆鲽鱼类种质之一,在鲆鲽鱼类养殖产业中具有重要的地位。本研究初次收集了分布于山东半岛的4个养殖群体(日照、胶南、威海和蓬莱)的350尾亲鱼,分别测量了100尾雌雄亲鱼的体长和体质量,拟合了雌雄性亲鱼体质量和体长幂函数关系,分别为:y=0.034 2x2.843 6 (R2=0.565)和y=0.075 9x2.533 4(R2=0.753 8)。利用其中成熟的55尾雄鱼和46尾雌鱼进行人工繁殖,雌鱼平均产卵次数为4.39次、雄鱼产精次数为2.36次。其中25个杂交组合繁殖成功,建立了29个半同胞和全同胞家系。在家系生长到150 d时,对1 640尾鱼苗体质量、全长、体长和体宽4个性状进行测量。利用最小范数二次无偏估计法(MINQUE)对以上性状的方差组分进行估计,利用"加－显性"模型对生长性状遗传力进行估计,采用线性无偏预测法(Linear Unbiased Prediction,LUP)预测亲本的加性和显性遗传效应。结果显示:4个性状的遗传相关系数为0.809~0.999(P<0.01)。体质量、全长、体长和体宽4个性状的加性、显性方差分量都达到极显著水平(P<0.01),狭义遗传率为0.311~0.444(P<0.01),广义遗传率为0.377~0.525(P<0.01)。加性遗传效应预测显示:31个亲本中的6个在4个性状上同时具有极显著的正向效应(P<0.01),10个亲本具有极显著(P<0.01)或显著(P<0.05)的负向效应。显性随机效应预测显示:25个杂交组合中6个具极显著正向效应(P<0.01),8个具有极显著负向效应(P<0.01)。研究结果首次为星斑川鲽家系建立和优良苗种培育筛选出了优良的亲本和杂交组合,同时为星斑川鲽的选择育种提供了丰富的遗传指标。  相似文献   

斜向波浪作用下双层水平板式防波堤波浪荷载试验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

顾倩  黄国兴  张宁川  李龙祥  邵忠安 《海洋学报(英文版)》2016,35(12):100-109

In this study, systematic physical model tests were performed to investigate the wave forces on the twin-plate breakwater under irregular waves. Based on the experimental results, the effects of the relative plate width B/L,wave height Hs/D and incident angle θ0 on the wave forces were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that:(1) The envelopes of the total wave pressure were generally symmetrical along the direction of plate width under the incident angles(θ0) being 0°, 15°, 30°, 45° and 60°. In particular, the envelopes of wave pressure atθ0=30° were larger than all other cases.(2) The synchronous pressure distribution of the breakwater under oblique wave action was more complicated comparing to the normal incident waves.(3) Based on data analysis, an empirical formula was obtained to estimate the total vertical force of the twin-plate breakwater.This empirical formula can be a good reference for the design basis of engineering applications under specified wave conditions.  相似文献   

An Artificial Neural Network-Based Response Surface Method for Reliability Analyses of c-? Slopes with Spatially Variable Soil     

舒苏荀  龚文惠 《海洋工程》2016,(1):113-122

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN)-based response surface method that can be used to predict the failure probability of c-? slopes with spatially variable soil. In this method, the Latin hypercube sampling technique is adopted to generate input datasets for establishing an ANN model; the random finite element method is then utilized to calculate the corresponding output datasets considering the spatial variability of soil properties; and finally, an ANN model is trained to construct the response surface of failure probability and obtain an approximate function that incorporates the relevant variables. The results of the illustrated example indicate that the proposed method provides credible and accurate estimations of failure probability. As a result, the obtained approximate function can be used as an alternative to the specific analysis process in c-? slope reliability analyses.  相似文献   

风廓线雷达数据质量影响因子及处理算法   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

高祝宇  阮征  魏鸣  葛润生  刘瑞婷 《应用气象学报》2016,27(2):148-159

风廓线雷达系统误差和探测数据时空代表性影响风的数据质量。针对五波束探测风廓线雷达,提出雷达系统误差检测方法并分析风的空间不均匀分布和时间代表性对风数据质量的影响。在此基础上,通过比较4组三波束计算的两组水平风u,v分量离差进行风的空间均匀性判别,并比较了一致性平均和数学平均两种时间代表性处理算法间的测风精度差异。利用广东风廓线雷达站网2014年3—5月10部雷达数据进行方法应用和评估。结果表明:稳定大气条件下,3种型号雷达 (LC,PB,PA) 的有效数据高度分别达到3,6 km和10 km的雷达系统功能设计需求。经空间均匀性检验与时间一致性平均处理的风数据在降水期间质量优于业务雷达数据,3—5月10部雷达获取的两组u,v分量离差标准差约为1 m·s-1,表明经过空间一致性检验和时间一致性平均处理后的数据质量较好。  相似文献