基于气象因子的华中电网负荷预测方法研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

胡江林  洪斌等 《应用气象学报》2002,13(5):600-608

在分析各种节假日负荷变化规律的基础上, 利用气象因子作预报变量, 使用动态的综合线性回归和自回归相结合的混合线性回归方法及非线性的人工神经网络方法来进行华中电网日负荷和日最大负荷及日最小负荷的预测。对12个月共365天的独立样本试预报表明, 该客观方案对华中电网负荷的预测精度可满足业务调度的需要。  相似文献   

EFG法在土体固结中的应用   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张延军  唐红兵 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2002,32(1):77-80

EFGM作为一种新的数值计算方法，具有只需节点信息而无段单元的特性，故在解固结方程方面有很大的优势。在计算分析中，此法容易构造固结方程的EFGM刚度矩阵和处理不同边界条件。对单面排水等条件的计算结果表明，EFGM在解决固结变形问题上，精度较高，处理边界准确。  相似文献   

H2O-CH4-H2-CO2-CO-O2在高温、高压和高密度条件下的状态方程     

胡家文 《地球化学》2002,31(4):389-394

为了计算高温，高压和高密度流体的热力学性质，提出了一个具有19个参数的维里型状态方程，其中参数与温度间的函数关系采用由Sutherland位能函数导出的维里系数近似式。除临界点附近以外，在已报道的pVT数据所覆盖的大部分超临界区域内，该方程均可适用。用该方程对H2O，CH4，H2，CO2，CO和O2等流体pVT关系的计算结果令人满意，其中pVT上限分别为：91-610GPa,1.6-11.0cm^3/mol,4000-5000K。计算体积的平均偏 小于0．8％，最大偏差小于5．4％。  相似文献   

25～75℃酸性NaCl溶液中方铅矿的溶解动力学   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张生  李建平  王玉荣  胡光黔 《地球化学》2002,31(6):587-592

在25～75℃、pH=0.43～2.45的1mol/LNaCl溶液中进行了方铅矿的溶解动力学实验。发现在远平衡条件下,方铅矿的溶解速率r与氢离子活度犤H+犦呈线性关系,溶解速率方程(速率定律)为:r=k犤H+犦,即对H+而言,溶解反应为一级。其中速率常数k为2.344×10-7mol/m2·s(25℃)、1.380×10-6mol/m2·s(50℃)、7.079×10-6mol/m2·s(75℃)。溶解反应的活化能为43.54kJ/mol,方铅矿的溶解机理为表面化学反应,速率决定步骤为表面配合物的离解。  相似文献   

Ordovician Graptolite Rhabdosome Complication and Its Implications on Sea Level Changes     

Wang Chuanshang  Wang Xiaofeng  Chen Xiaohong 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2002,13(3)

A total of four times of rhabdosome complication events, i.e., the lateral branching of graptolite stipes during the Late Middle Ordovician, the secondary branching of graptolite stipes at the earliest Upper Ordovician, the early Qiantangjiangian of Upper Ordovician and the middle Qiantangjiangian, respectively, is discussed in this paper. These events and other adaptation events demonstrate close relationships between a diverse graptolite fauna and sea level changes, and consequently can be employed to study sea level fluctuations. It is safe to conclude that the complication of rhabdosome started at the maximum flooding surface (MFS) and terminated at the beginning of regression.  相似文献   

Method of Data Reduction and Uncertainty Estimation for Platinum-Group Element Data Using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James C. Ely  Clive R. Neal 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2002,26(1):31-39

A data reduction method is described for determining platinum-group element (PGE) abundances by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) using external calibration or the method of standard addition. Gravimetric measurement of volumes, the analysis of reference materials and the use of procedural blanks were all used to minimise systematic errors. Internal standards were used to correct for instrument drift. A linear least squares regression model was used to calculate concentrations from drift-corrected counts per second (cps). Furthermore, mathematical manipulations also contribute to the uncertainty estimates of a procedure. Typical uncertainty estimate calculations for ICP-MS data manipulations involve: (1) Carrying standard deviations from the raw cps through the data reduction or (2) calculating a standard deviation from multiple final concentration calculations. It is demonstrated that method 2 may underestimate the uncertainty estimate of the calculated data. Methods 1 and 2 do not typically include an uncertainty estimate component from a regression model. As such models contribute to the uncertainty estimates affecting the calculated data, an uncertainty estimate component from the regression must be included in any final error calculations. Confidence intervals are used to account for uncertainty estimates from the regression model. These confidence intervals are simpler to calculate than uncertainty estimates from method 1, for example. The data reduction and uncertainty estimation method described here addresses problems of reporting PGE data from an article in the literature and addresses both precision and accuracy. The method can be applied to any analytical technique where drift corrections or regression models are used.  相似文献   

有限弹性变形地壳中的地震波     

范家参 《地震研究》2002,25(1):48-52

地壳由半无限大的基岩上一层厚度为H^-的表土层组成，入射地震波为垂直的SH波，产生水平地面运动。当浅源大地震发生时，在极震区以外行波传播产生地面运动将使地壳介质有非线性的有限弹性变形。用小参数摄动法使非线性控制方程为线性化的小参数各阶控制方程，得出头两阶线性控制方程的解析解。  相似文献   

剥蚀及地幔作用下青藏高原隆升过程的数值模拟   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

李祖宁  傅容珊  黄建华 《地球物理学报》2002,45(4):516-524

修改了England和Mckenzie的黏性薄层流变模型中控制大陆形变的连续性方程,将剥蚀作用对高原隆升演化的影响直接引入该方程,并考虑下伏地幔小尺度对流对增厚岩石层的搬离作用对高原隆升演化后期的影响,用有限差分法直接模拟青藏高原隆升过程. 数值模拟结果所显示的高原隆升演化过程与实际观测资料吻合较好,揭示了高原隆升演化过程的非平稳和多阶段的特性;同时还表明上地幔小尺度对流对岩石层底部的搬离作用可能是最近8Ma以来高原快速隆升的主导机制.  相似文献   

基于波动方程的广义屏叠前深度偏移   总被引：15，自引：7，他引：15       下载免费PDF全文

金胜汶  许士勇  吴如山 《地球物理学报》2002,45(5):684-690

地震波传播算子的计算效率和精度是制约三维叠前深度偏移的关键因素. 广义屏传播算子(GSP, Generalized Screen Propagator)是一种在双域中实现的广角单程波传播算子. 这一方法略去了在非均匀体之间发生的交混回响,但它可以正确处理包括聚焦、衍射、折射和干涉在内的各种多次前向散射现象. 通过背景速度下的相移和扰动速度下的陡倾角校正,广义屏算子能够适应地层速度的强烈横向变化. 这种算子可以直接应用于炮集叠前偏移,通过将广义屏算子作用于双平方根方程,还可以获得一种高效率、高精度的炮检距域叠前深度偏移方法,用于二维共炮检距道集和三维共方位角道集的深度域成像. 本文首先简述了炮检距域广义屏传播算子的理论,进而讨论了共照射角成像(CAI, Common Angle Imaging)条件,由此给出各个不同照射角(炮检距射线参数)下的成像结果,进而得到共照射角像集. 由于照射角和炮检距的对应关系,共照射角像集又为偏移速度分析和AVO(振幅随炮检距变化)分析等提供了有力工具.  相似文献   

Efficient methods for solving water flow in variably saturated soils under prescribed flux infiltration     

Xiaoxian Zhang  A. Glyn Bengough  John W. Crawford  Iain M. Young 《Journal of Hydrology》2002,260(1-4):75-87

The non-linear solvers in numerical solutions of water flow in variably saturated soils are prone to convergence difficulties. Many aspects can give rise to such difficulties and in this paper we address the gravity term and the prescribed-flux boundary in the Picard iteration. The problem of the gravity term in the Picard iteration is iteration-to-iteration oscillation as the gravity term is treated, by analogy with the time-step advance technique, ‘explicitly’ in the iteration. The proposed method for the gravity term is an improvement of the ‘implicit’ approach of Zhang and Ewen [Water Resour. Res. 36 (2000) 2777] by extending it to heterogeneous soil and approximating the inter-nodal hydraulic conductivity in the diffusive term and the gravity term with the same scheme. The prescribed-flux boundary in traditional methods also gives rise to iteration-to-iteration oscillation because there is no feedback to the flux in the solution at the new iteration. To reduce such oscillation, a new method is proposed to provide such a feedback to the flux. Comparison with traditional Picard and Newton iteration methods for a wide range of problems show that a combination of these two proposed methods greatly improves the stability and consequently the computational efficiency, making the use of small time step and/or under-relaxation solely for convergence unnecessary.  相似文献