Results of a single group participating in an international experiment are analyzed. The experiment served to verify computational predictions of the ground-motion variations due to near-surface geological effects at a site established for that purpose by the California Department of Conservation. Based on an acceleration record at a rock location, and geotechnical model of medium, records at the other locations of a nearby sedimentary deposit were predicted. A 2-D finite-difference sensitivity analysis suggested that the lateral wave-propagation effects are negligibly small, and locally 1-D computations are sufficient for the present site. Those computations are compared with observations not available to the authors during the blind prediction. Peak accelerations, peak velocities and RMS accelerations were predicted with errors less than 159%, 114% and 62%, respectively. Maxima of the response spectra were fitted within a factor of 2. The predicted and observed Husid's plots (i.e., the normalized cumulative plots of the acceleration squared) have the correlation coefficients 0.98. The detected misfits do not show any simple relation to the instrument location, component, frequency, or time. 相似文献
The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging
of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the
roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3)
have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either
the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of
hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect
and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational
picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric
simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies
with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the
geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system
and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number
of different situations. 相似文献
The influence of local geologic and soil conditions on the intensity of ground shaking is addressed in this study. The amplification
of the ground motion due to local site effects resulted in severe damage to dwellings in the Bam area during the 2003 Bam
Earthquake. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings was obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. Although
the highest peak ground acceleration recorded was the vertical component (nearly 1 g), the longitudinal component (fault-parallel
motion) clearly had the largest maximum velocity as well as maximum ground displacement. Subsurface geotechnical and geophysical
(down-hole) data in two different sites have been obtained and used to estimate the local site condition on earthquake ground
motion in the area. The ground response analyses have been conducted considering the nonlinear behavior of the soil deposits
using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches. The fully nonlinear method embodied in FLAC was used to evaluate the
nonlinear soil properties on earthquake wave propagation through the soil layer, and compare with the response from the equivalent
linear approach. It is shown that thick alluvium deposits amplified the ground motion and resulted in significant damage in
residential buildings in the earthquake stricken region. The comparison of results indicated similar response spectra of the
motions for both equivalent and nonlinear analyses, showing peaks in the period range of 0.3–1.5 s. However, the amplification
levels of nonlinear analysis were less than the equivalent linear method especially in long periods. The observed response
spectra are shown to be above the NEHRP building code design requirements, especially at high frequencies. 相似文献