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91.
AMSU资料变分同化及在暴雨数值模拟中的应用研究 总被引:7,自引:1,他引:7
在中尺度数值模拟中,利用中国气象科学研究院数值天气预报创新基地开发的GRAPES三维变分同化系统,对AMSU-A/B微波遥感资料进行了同化试验,研究了这种资料在我国夏季暴雨数值预报中的作用。以2003年7月4日的一次暴雨过程为例,分析了同化结果及模拟结果,结果表明:(1)单独同化AMSU-A资料主要改进了初始温度场,而单独同化AMSU-B资料主要改进了初始湿度场;(2)无论是同化AMSU-A资料还是同化AMSU-B资料,对暴雨预报都有一定的改进作用,但是同化AMSU-B资料的改进作用更明显;(3)同时同化AMSU-A/B资料比只使用其中一种资料的模拟效果好,可以更好地改进模拟的暴雨落区及强度,使结果与实况更加接近。使用AMSU资料,对我国夏季暴雨数值预报有改进作用。 相似文献
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The abilities of typhoon (TC) track prediction by a medium-range forecast model T213L31 at National Meteorological Center are analyzed and its ability to improve its TC forecasts is discussed. The results show that about 57% of the TCs could be predicted by T213L31 but the initial position errors are large.The 43% area without the prediction of TC tracks is concentrated between 13°N and 20°N and east of 120°E and lack of conventional observation data is the main reason for the absence of TC prediction in this area.The adding of bogus TC could improve the ability of TC track prediction when there is no TC vortex in the analysis field, but could only have positive effects on the short-range TC track prediction when there is TC vortex in the T213L31 analysis field. 相似文献
95.
During the last 50 years, the management of agroecosystems has been undergoing major changes to meet the growing demand for food, timber, fibre and fuel. As a result of this intensified use, the ecological status of many agroecosystems has been severely deteriorated. Modeling the behavior of agroecosystems is, therefore, of great help since it allows the definition of management strategies that maximize (crop) production while minimizing the environmental impacts. Remote sensing can support such modeling by offering information on the spatial and temporal variation of important canopy state variables which would be very difficult to obtain otherwise.In this paper, we present an overview of different methods that can be used to derive biophysical and biochemical canopy state variables from optical remote sensing data in the VNIR-SWIR regions. The overview is based on an extensive literature review where both statistical–empirical and physically based methods are discussed. Subsequently, the prevailing techniques of assimilating remote sensing data into agroecosystem models are outlined. The increasing complexity of data assimilation methods and of models describing agroecosystem functioning has significantly increased computational demands. For this reason, we include a short section on the potential of parallel processing to deal with the complex and computationally intensive algorithms described in the preceding sections.The studied literature reveals that many valuable techniques have been developed both for the retrieval of canopy state variables from reflective remote sensing data as for assimilating the retrieved variables in agroecosystem models. However, for agroecosystem modeling and remote sensing data assimilation to be commonly employed on a global operational basis, emphasis will have to be put on bridging the mismatch between data availability and accuracy on one hand, and model and user requirements on the other. This could be achieved by integrating imagery with different spatial, temporal, spectral, and angular resolutions, and the fusion of optical data with data of different origin, such as LIDAR and radar/microwave. 相似文献
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Impact of 4DVAR Assimilation of Rainfall Data on the Simulation of Mesoscale Precipitation Systems in a Mei-yu Heavy Rainfall Event 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulated through rainfall assimilation using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic, mesoscale, numerical model (MM5) and its four-dimensional, variational, data assimilation (4DVAR) system. For this case, the improvement of the process via the 4DVAR rainfall assimilation into the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems is investigated. With the rainfall assimilation, the convection is triggered at the right location and time, and the evolution and spatial distribution of the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are also more correctly simulated. Through the interactions between MCSs and the weather systems at different scales, including the low-level jet and mei-yu front, the simulation of the entire mei-yu weather system is significantly improved, both during the data assimilation window and the subsequent 12-h period. The results suggest that the rainfall assimilation first provides positive impact at the convective scale and the influences are then propagated upscale to the meso- and sub-synoptic scales.
Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance. 相似文献
Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance. 相似文献
98.
第I部分研究结果(徐枝芳等,2007)表明模式与实际观测站地形高度差异对地面观测资料同化效果有较大影响。此文在MM5_3DVAR同化系统中利用近地层相似理论将地面观测资料进行直接三维变分同化分析,考虑模式与实际观测站地形高度差异对同化效果的影响,提出在地面观测误差中增加地形代表性误差来解决这个问题。研究结果表明:地面资料同化分析时,在其观测误差中加入一项新的误差——地形代表性误差,能较好地解决地面资料同化分析中模式与观测站地形高度差异问题;地面资料参与同化分析,在观测误差中加入与模式和实际观测站地形高度差异大小相关的地形代表性误差时,地面观测值对分析值的影响随着地形高度差异代表性误差的加入而减小,同时又部分地将地面观测信息通过变分分析融进分析场,使得低层分析更接近真实场,且地面资料利用率更高,24小时降水数值预报(模拟)的效果较好。 相似文献
99.
本文应用MM5V3中尺度数值模式对0519号台风“龙王”过程进行了数值模拟,利用模拟结果计算了台风过程湿位涡(Moist Potential Vorticity,MPV)的演变,从湿位涡的角度研究了台风过程大暴雨的产生机制。结果表明:倾斜涡度发展是“龙王”台风在福建沿海产生大暴雨的重要机制之一,湿位涡能够对暴雨落区的预报有较强的指示性作用,暴雨产生在θse线陡立的对流层中低层MPV1等值线密集带中零线附近,对流层中高层的MPV2负值区可以作为暖湿气流或涡旋活动的示踪;另外,对流层中高层中高纬度冷空气扩散南下与台风的东南暖湿空气在福建沿海交汇,加剧了气旋性涡度发展,对暴雨的发生发展也有巨大的作用。 相似文献
100.
中国地形复杂,模式地形与实际观测地形存在一定高度差异,因此设计合理的复杂地形下地面观测资料的同化方案有利于使我国目前仅用作探测手段的地面观测资料(常规地面观测站和地面自动站)在中尺度数值模式中得到充分利用。作者在MM5_3DVAR同化系统中利用近地层相似理论将地面观测资料进行直接三维变分同化分析,并对地面资料同化方案设计中是否需要考虑模式与实际观测站地形高度差异进行探讨研究。研究结果表明:通过近地层相似理论将地面观测资料同化到数值模式能起到一定的作用,并且地面观测资料(温度、 湿度、 风场、 地面气压)中各物理量同化到数值模式都能影响24小时降水数值结果,但各物理量起的作用大小不一样,其中影响最大的是温度,其次为湿度;地面观测资料同化方案设计有必要考虑模式地形与实际观测站地形高度差异,适当考虑这种高度差异能取得较好的结果。 相似文献