K 近邻非参数回归概率预报技术及其应用   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

翟宇梅赵瑞星  肖仁春王力维 《应用气象学报》2005,16(4):453-460

针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。  相似文献   

基于气象因子的华中电网负荷预测方法研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

胡江林  洪斌等 《应用气象学报》2002,13(5):600-608

在分析各种节假日负荷变化规律的基础上, 利用气象因子作预报变量, 使用动态的综合线性回归和自回归相结合的混合线性回归方法及非线性的人工神经网络方法来进行华中电网日负荷和日最大负荷及日最小负荷的预测。对12个月共365天的独立样本试预报表明, 该客观方案对华中电网负荷的预测精度可满足业务调度的需要。  相似文献   

长江中下游地区下蜀黄土成因研究的回顾   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

郑乐平  胡雪峰  方小敏 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2002,21(1):54-57

为了进一步认识下蜀黄土的成因及其在我国东部环境演为研究中的意义，回顾了20世纪30年代以来下蜀黄土研究的主要成果，系统地评述了下蜀黄土的风成说、水成说和多成因说。下蜀黄土的成因，从营力的先后及主交看，风成应是第一位的。因此，在利用下蜀黄土保存的古环境信息研究我国东部变化时，应慎重选择剖面，以获得良好的结果。  相似文献   

Ordovician Graptolite Rhabdosome Complication and Its Implications on Sea Level Changes     

Wang Chuanshang  Wang Xiaofeng  Chen Xiaohong 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2002,13(3)

A total of four times of rhabdosome complication events, i.e., the lateral branching of graptolite stipes during the Late Middle Ordovician, the secondary branching of graptolite stipes at the earliest Upper Ordovician, the early Qiantangjiangian of Upper Ordovician and the middle Qiantangjiangian, respectively, is discussed in this paper. These events and other adaptation events demonstrate close relationships between a diverse graptolite fauna and sea level changes, and consequently can be employed to study sea level fluctuations. It is safe to conclude that the complication of rhabdosome started at the maximum flooding surface (MFS) and terminated at the beginning of regression.  相似文献   

河南省栾川县马圈一带银铅锌多金属找矿方向探讨     

宋要武 《华北地质》2002,(Z1)

马圈一带出露的主要地层为上元古界栾川群和中元古界官道口群 ,是Pb、Zn、Ag的主要含矿地层。燕山期花岗岩在空间上与矿化关系密切。矿体主要受北西向断裂控制 ,常分布在北西、北东向断裂构造交汇部位。根据地球化学特征、矿产分布规律和找矿标志 ,划分出百炉沟西凹—东凹—磨沟、百炉沟—黄花北沟—杨树凹等两个一级和银窝沟—大石渣沟—小石渣沟、板岔沟等两个二级找矿预测区。  相似文献   

Method of Data Reduction and Uncertainty Estimation for Platinum-Group Element Data Using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James C. Ely  Clive R. Neal 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2002,26(1):31-39

A data reduction method is described for determining platinum-group element (PGE) abundances by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) using external calibration or the method of standard addition. Gravimetric measurement of volumes, the analysis of reference materials and the use of procedural blanks were all used to minimise systematic errors. Internal standards were used to correct for instrument drift. A linear least squares regression model was used to calculate concentrations from drift-corrected counts per second (cps). Furthermore, mathematical manipulations also contribute to the uncertainty estimates of a procedure. Typical uncertainty estimate calculations for ICP-MS data manipulations involve: (1) Carrying standard deviations from the raw cps through the data reduction or (2) calculating a standard deviation from multiple final concentration calculations. It is demonstrated that method 2 may underestimate the uncertainty estimate of the calculated data. Methods 1 and 2 do not typically include an uncertainty estimate component from a regression model. As such models contribute to the uncertainty estimates affecting the calculated data, an uncertainty estimate component from the regression must be included in any final error calculations. Confidence intervals are used to account for uncertainty estimates from the regression model. These confidence intervals are simpler to calculate than uncertainty estimates from method 1, for example. The data reduction and uncertainty estimation method described here addresses problems of reporting PGE data from an article in the literature and addresses both precision and accuracy. The method can be applied to any analytical technique where drift corrections or regression models are used.  相似文献   

天山西部中山带积雪变化趋势与气温和降水的关系——以巩乃斯河谷为例   总被引：12，自引：9，他引：12  

张丽旭  魏文寿 《地理科学》2002,22(1):67-71

根据位于巩乃斯河谷的天山积雪雪崩研究站近30年来的年最大雪深、月平均气温、月降水量观测记录，用平均差值法、最小二乘法、自回归滑动平均法检验了天山西部中山带积雪、冷季降水、冷季平均气温的变化趋势，结果表明，天山西部中山带积雪呈增加趋势，近30年来年平均增加1.43%，与青藏高原、南极大陆及格陵兰冰盖表面积雪积累增加相一致。天山西部中山带冷季气温和降水的变化趋势也是增加的，其中冷季降水平年平均增加0．12％，而冷季气温升高了0．8℃，积雪与冷季气温之间存在着弱的负相关关系，而与冷季降水呈显著的正相关关系。积雪的增加主要是因为气候变暖引起的冷季降水的增加对积雪增加的贡献大于由于冷季气温升高而造成积雪减少的贡献的结果。  相似文献   

基于GIS的滑坡CF多元回归模型及其应用   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

兰恒星  伍法权  王思敬 《山地学报》2002,20(6):732-737

目前基于GIS滑坡变形失稳危险性评价方法均有各自的局限性。本文在基于数据的数学统计模型的基础上提出CF多元回归模型。通过将滑坡确定性稳定系数与回归模型的融合，在一定程度以解决了滑坡评价过程中影响因子的选择和量化的问题，有利于建立准确的滑坡分析模型。最后，将模型应用于云南小江流域，进行了该区的滑坡空间分布及稳定性分析。  相似文献   

Palaeolimnology of Lake Piene-Kuuppalanlampi (Kurkijoki, Karelian Republic, Russia): isolation history, lake ecosystem development and long-term agricultural impact     

Juha Miettinen  Elisabeth Grönlund  Heikki Simola  Pertti Huttunen 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,27(1):29-44

The post-glacial history of Lake Pieni-Kuuppalanlampi, western Lake Ladoga region, was studied by means of stratigraphic pollen and diatom analyses. Diatoms were analysed to track the isolation history of the basin and the limnological effects of the early land-use phases indicated by pollen analysis. Chrysophycean stomatocysts and Isoëtes spores were also employed in the limnological reconstructions. Sediment dating was provided by six conventional radiocarbon dates.The lower part of the 370-cm long sediment sequence represents early Holocene, large lake conditions: the (freshwater) Yoldia and Ancylus stages of the Baltic basin, with a short-term lagoonal or isolation phase at the end of Yoldia. The basin was isolated due to Ancylus lake regression at 9785 cal B.P. For the small-lake sequence (0–250 cm) we used diatom inferences (WA-method) for hindcasting water chemistry. The post-isolation limnology of Pieni-Kuuppalanlampi reflects the development of vegetation on its small hill-top catchment. In its early development, the lake was mesotrophic, but became more acidic (pH about 6) and oligotrophic after the decline of temperate hardwood trees and the spread of spruce to the area after around 5000 B.P. The lake ecosystem appears to have reacted sensitively to agricultural land-use in the catchment from AD 400–800 onwards: inferred total phosphorus levels and pH both rise during these periods.  相似文献   

History and necessity: the evolution of soil conservation technology in a Jamaican farming system     

Rebecca J. Kent 《The Geographical journal》2002,168(1):48-56

The soil conservation campaigns that have been a prominent feature of Jamaican agricultural policy since the 1950s are frequently presented as having failed to ameliorate the problem of soil erosion in hillside agriculture. A case study of a small farming community in the Blue Mountains explores the development of the soil conservation practices currently employed by farmers. The use of trash barriers in carrot farming is described and the origins of this technology and its subsequent adaptation are considered. The study concludes that extension interventions and government policy have influenced the development of current soil conservation practices; practices which have their roots in indigenous techniques. Other factors such as the adaptation of trash barriers to suit local conditions and their importance in soil fertility management also play a role in their widespread use in the study area. The study demonstrates that to understand the process of technical change in farming communities, it is necessary to consider a range of factors, external and internal, technical and social, that have over time influenced farmers' decision making.  相似文献