小冰期气候的研究进展   总被引：18，自引：5，他引：13  

李明启  靳鹤龄  张洪 《中国沙漠》2005,25(5):731-737

小冰期是近2ka来的一个重要气候事件,又是目前全球变暖的背景事件,已成为古气候和古环境研究的热点。对此,科学工作者已经做了大量的研究。本文广泛综合前人研究的成果,介绍了小冰期的概况,认为1450-1890年是小冰期的时限,在此期间有三次冷期和两次暖期。冷期发生在1450-1510年、1560-1690年和1790-1890年,其中第二次冷期表现最甚;暖期发生在1510-1560年和1690-1790年。太阳活动和火山活动是小冰期气候变化的主要因素。并重点从冰芯、树轮、湖泊沉积、历史文献和沙漠地层等方面综述了近年来国内外对小冰期气候变化的研究现状。  相似文献   

基于树轮宽度的伊塞克湖入湖径流量重建与分析     

尹仔锋  尚华明  魏文寿  何清  袁玉江  张瑞波  张同文  Bakyt. Ermenbaev  Rysbek Satylkanov 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2014,8(4):8-14

中亚区域气候与水文变化特征及其对全球气候变化的响应重要而复杂,伊塞克湖流域周边山区分布的天山云杉原始森林为揭示区域过去几百年气候水文变化事实和规律提供了良好的载体。本文利用伊塞克湖周边山区4个点的树木年轮宽度、入湖年径流量以及CRU格点气象资料,基于对树轮宽度指数对区域水文和气候要素响应关系分析,利用区域树轮宽度差值年表重建了伊塞克湖355a来的入湖径流量变化历史,二者线性转换方程的方差解释量为30．2％。重建径流量的丰枯阶段变化与天山北坡的玛纳斯河、乌鲁木齐河相对应。但与天山南坡的阿克苏河流域的径流量的低频变化特征不一致,在1850年前的变化趋势相反。空间相关分析发现伊塞克湖流域重建径流量变化能较好地代表中亚天山北坡以及哈萨克斯坦东南部和新疆北部平原区降水变化。此外,还发现了伊塞克湖径流量与北大西洋长周期年代际震荡（AMO）在年代际尺度的同步变化。  相似文献   

树轮记录的过去384a乌鲁木齐河源7月温度变化   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

陈峰  袁玉江  魏文寿  王丽丽  喻树龙  李杨  张瑞波  范子昂 《冰川冻土》2011,33(1):55-63

利用采自乌鲁木齐河源上树线跃进桥东采样点的雪岭云杉树轮样本,分析了其年表特征和气候响应特点.结果表明:采样点树轮早材密度标准化年表与和大西沟气象站7月份平均最高温度具有很好的正相关关系.用跃进桥东采样点的早材密度标准化年表序列,可较好地重建乌鲁木齐河源1623-2006年的7月平均最高温度,1959-2006年48 a...  相似文献   

福建沙县马尾松树轮宽度与夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动指数的关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

陈峰  袁玉江  魏文寿  喻树龙  张同文 《第四纪研究》2011,31(1):96-103

根据采自福建沙县萝卜岩保护区的树轮样本,建立了一个长度为207年的树轮宽度标准化年表.通过相关分析发现,树轮宽度标准化年表序列与夏秋干旱季节温度存在显著的负相关.同时,还发现树轮宽度标准化年表序列与夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动指数(IAPO)具有良好的相关性,相关系数为0.60(p＜0.01),这种关系实质上指示了夏秋干旱季节...  相似文献   

Tree-Ring Analysis And Natural Hazard Chronologies: Minimum Sample Sizes And Index Values*     

David R. Butler  George P. Malanson  Jack G. Oelfke 《The Professional geographer》1987,39(1):41-47

Tree-ring dating is employed to reconstruct chronologies of occurrence for a variety of natural hazards. The number of trees sampled varies greatly as does the minimum number of tree-ring responses. The number of trees to be sampled and an acceptable tree-ring response index should be dictated by the nature and geographical extent of the specific hazard under study. Repetitive sampling of different numbers of 30 avalanche-damaged trees showed significant differences in number of tree-ring responses over a 55-year-period. More sampling and use of a higher minimum response index allowed greater confidence in the chronology constructed from tree-rings and compared to historical records. Three geographic scales of analysis that can confound tree-ring responses are identified, and three guidelines for choosing sample size, given variations in processes, are suggested.  相似文献   

博州中东部树轮宽度年表特征及对其气候响应     

蔺甲 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2013,7(1):39-46

利用采自博尔塔拉蒙古自治州中东部山区9个采点的树轮样本,研制树轮宽度年表,分析9个树轮宽度标准化年表的统计特征及年表对气候的响应。结果表明:(1)位于森林中下部林缘的吉普克北、包尔克特沟西侧、小海子、胡苏木萨拉年表和森林上树线的吉普克年表包含的气候信息较多。(2)博州中东部山区气候对树木年轮生长的影响存在持续性,显著的持续年数大多表现在当年及其后的3 a。(3)9个年表间的互相关系数均超过了0.01的显著水平,森林中下部林缘年表间的相关性大于森林上树线。(4)森林上树线树轮宽度年表与上年12月至当年9月平均最低气温相关系数最大(R=0.583,显著性水平达0.000 1),其中与6月温度的相关最好,温度是影响森林上树线树轮宽度生长的主要气候限制因子。森林中下部林缘区域树轮宽度年表与上年6月至当年5月的降水量呈显著正相关(R=0.644,显著性水平达0.000 1),其中与6月降水量的相关最好,降水是影响森林中下部林缘树木年轮宽度生长的主要气候限制因子。  相似文献   

祁连山东延余脉——兴隆山树木径向生长记录的公元1845年来夏季NDVI变化     

王亚军  马玉贞  鲁瑞洁  高尚玉 《地理研究》2016,35(4):653-663

NDVI能够反映地表覆盖和生态环境变化。在祁连山东延余脉采集树轮样本,分析树木径向生长与植被NDVI的相关关系,并重建历史时期植被NDVI变化。结果表明：树木径向生长与夏季NDVI受到水热条件变化的显著影响,且树轮宽度与夏季NDVI显著正相关,采用简单线性回归方法建立二者的拟合方程,方差解释量达0.600（R²_adj=0.582,F=34.472,P<0.0001）;公元1845年以来,重建的NDVI序列显示植被覆盖相对较低时期有19世纪60年代,80年代初期,20世纪初期和20-30年代,其中20世纪20-30年代NDVI低值期与中国北方大范围旱灾一致;重建的NDVI与旱涝指数显著负相关,证实重建NDVI序列的可靠,且显示该区旱涝演化趋势;周期分析表明公元1845年以来,NDVI序列存在2-3年、5年左右、13年左右和15年左右的振荡。  相似文献   

Unraveling the patterns of late Holocene debris-flow activity on a cone in the Swiss Alps: Chronology, environment and implications for the future     

Markus Stoffel  Delphine Conus  Michael A. Grichting  Igor Livre  Gilles Maître 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,60(3-4):222-234

Debris-flow activity on the forested cone of the Ritigraben torrent (Valais, Swiss Alps) was assessed from growth disturbances in century-old trees, providing an unusually complete record of past events and deposition of material. The study of 2246 tree-ring sequences sampled from 1102 Larix decidua Mill., Picea abies (L.) Karst. and Pinus cembra ssp. sibirica trees allowed reconstruction of 123 events since AD 1566. Geomorphic mapping permitted identification of 769 features related to past debris-flow activity on the intermediate cone. The features inventoried in the study area covering 32 ha included 291 lobes, 465 levées and 13 well-developed debris-flow channels. Based on tree-ring records of disturbed trees growing in or next to the deposits, almost 86% of the lobes identified on the present-day surface could be dated. A majority of the dated material was deposited over the last century. Signs of pre-20th century events are often recognizable in the tree-ring record of survivor trees, but the material that caused the growth anomaly in trees has been completely overridden or eroded by more recent debris-flow activity.Tree-ring records suggest that cool summers with frequent snowfalls at higher elevations regularly prevented the release of debris flows between the 1570s and 1860s; the warming trend combined with greater precipitation totals in summer and autumn between 1864 and 1895 provided conditions that were increasingly favorable for releasing events from the source zone. Enhanced debris-flow activity continued well into the 20th century and reconstructions show a clustering of events in the period 1916–1935 when warm–wet conditions prevailed during summer in the Swiss Alps. In contrast, very low activity is observed for the last 10-yr period (1996–2005) with only one debris-flow event recorded on August 27, 2002. Since sediment availability is not a limiting factor, this temporal absence of debris-flow activity is due to an absence of triggering events, which not only shifted from June and July to August and September over the 20th century, but also seemed to be initiated primarily by persistent precipitation rather than summer thunderstorms. From the reconstructions, based on RCM simulations, there are indications that debris-flow frequencies might continue to decrease in the future, as precipitation events are projected to occur less frequently in summer but become more common in spring or autumn.  相似文献   

Dynamic analysis on carbon accumulation of a plantation in Qianyanzhou based on tree ring data     

SHAO Quanqin  HUANG Lin  LIU Jiyuan  YANG Haijun  CHEN Zhuoqi 《地理学报》2009,19(6):691-706

The authors developed a model to estimate annual tree growth based on tree-ring data (Abbr. TGTRing model) derived from the trunk at 0.5, 1.3 and 2.5 m height. This model was applied to estimate the annual biomass and carbon accumulation of a plantation in Qianyanzhou Red-Soil Hill Comprehensive Development Experimental Station of CAS in Taihe County, Jiangxi Province (Abbr. Qianyanzhou). The results showed that the inflexion points of the biomass and carbon accumulation curves occur at 17 and 18 years of age, respectively, in masson pine, whilst both inflexion points occurred at 15 years in slash pine and Chinese fir. The biomass and carbon accumulation in Chinese fir proved to be greater in the last 20 years than in the other species, with 171.697 t/hm2 and 92.29 tc/hm2, respectively. masson pine, with a biomass of 133.84 t/hm2 and a carbon accumulation of 73.92 tc/hm2 was the lowest whilst slash pine was intermediate with a biomass of 147.639 t/hm2 (unturpentined) and 135.743 t/hm2 (turpentined), and a carbon accumulation of 80.18 tc/hm2 (unturpentined) and 73.72 tc/hm2 (turpentined). In 2006, the total biomass and carbon storage of the tree stratum of masson pine in Qianyanzhou was 3324.43 t and 14,156.64 tc, respectively, whilst the values for Chinese fir were 1326.97 t and 713.27 tc. For slash pine the total biomass was 14,156.64 t (unturpentined) and 13,015.97 t (turpentined), and the total carbon storage was 7 688.21 tc (unturpentined) and 7068.78 tc (turpentined). Following the shaving of slash pine for resin, the total biomass was reduced by 1140.67 t and the total carbon storage fell by 619.43 tc.  相似文献   

以树轮宽度重建秦岭中段分水岭地区1-7月平均气温          下载免费PDF全文

刘禹  刘娜  宋慧明  蔡秋芳  包光  王伟平 《气候变化研究进展》2009,5(5):260-265

根据秦岭中段分水岭地区秦岭落叶松树轮宽度指标,建立了该地区1814-2003年的树轮标准化年表。分析表明,该地标准化年表与当年1-7月平均气温显著相关。在此基础上设计转换方程,利用多元回归技术重建了秦岭中段分水岭地区的1-7月平均气温,重建序列的方差解释量为41.2% (F=15.062, p＜0.0001),重建序列显示在过去190 a中气温较低的时段主要有1814-1850年和1876-1889年;偏暖期主要有1851-1875年和1890-1933年;而1934-1990年这一时期气温变化幅度较小,气温相对比较稳定;1990年之后升温明显。  相似文献