浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究   总被引：28，自引：0，他引：28  

谢剑明  刘礼领  殷坤龙  杜惠良  钮学新 《地质科技情报》2003,22(4):101-105

根据浙江省降雨的特点,将降雨分为台风降雨和非台风降雨,采用统计方法研究了区域性滑坡灾害与台风区和非台风区降雨量及降雨强度的相关性,通过相关性分析确定了有效降雨量模型;得到了浙江省区域性滑坡发生的临界降雨量和降雨强度阀值,为实时时间预警提供了定量依据;将滑坡灾害的空间易发性与降雨量和降雨强度相结合确定了滑坡灾害的空间预警区划指标和等级;最后初步研究了滑坡发生的滞后时间。  相似文献   

地质系统的复杂性--地质科学的基本问题(Ⅱ)   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

於崇文 《地球科学》2003,28(1):31-40

笔者根据其所提出的“地质作用与时空结构是一切地质现象的本质与核心”的自然哲学理念将地质科学的学科体系划分为地球物质的成分与结构、地质作用、地质学场与地质系统的演化等四大基本领域,它与9个重大基础地质问题以及与其相关的基础理论问题相对应（表2）,笔者将其已发表的地质科学的复杂性理论“地质作用的临界过程动力学－地质系统在混沌边缘分形生长”应用于研究9个重大基础地质问题,着重对于其中所包含的主要基础理论问题的实质及其理论与研究方法作较深入而简要的剖析。目的是通过将地质系统的复杂性作为地质科学的基本问题的新视角对古老而常新的地质科学进行再认识,将重大基础地质问题的研究提高到非线性科学和复杂性理论的层次,并实现地质科学向精确科学的跨越,取得突破性进展。  相似文献   

泥沙起动判别标准探讨   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

何文社  方铎  曹叔尤  杨具瑞  刘兴年 《水科学进展》2003,14(2):143-146

分析了现有起动标准的不足之处。在制定起动标准时,不但要考虑水流条件,还必须考虑泥沙颗粒在床面的相对位置。对同一粒径的泥沙颗粒,其起动条件不是一个常量,而是位于一个区间,它随颗粒在床面的相对暴露度而变化。根据力学原理,推导了泥沙颗粒起动时的临界无量纲切应力公式,并对其系数取值进行了理论计算。计算结果表明,对同一粒径、在同一起动状态下,泥沙颗粒的起动临界条件并非一个常量。并从理论上分析得到了临界值的范围,对个别及少量起动,其无量纲临界切应力为0.021～0.042及0.041～0.062。  相似文献   

成矿动力系统在混沌边缘的分形生长——一种新的成矿理论与方法论     

於崇文 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2002,21(2):103-113

笔将复杂性理论及非线性科学与矿床地质学相结合,对我国扬子古陆周缘6个矿集区的基本范式进行系统研究。结果指出,成矿系统总体上是开放、远离平衡、时－空延展的动力学系统。它们具有复杂性和自组织临界性的内禀基本属性,并且在混沌边缘分形生长。  相似文献   

基于滑面段旋转的Monte Carlo搜索技术及改进(Ⅰ):转角大小随机     

张鲁渝  张建民 《岩土力学》2006,27(11):1902-1908

对Abdallah I．Husein等人提出的Monte Carlo搜索技术进行了改进；（1）增加了若干条几何合理性条件；（2）增加了防止节点重合的机制；（3）通过确定滑面段旋转角的上、下限，使其能够适用于上凸型滑面；（4）增加了节点数调整机制，以使搜索到的临界滑面更光滑。算例分析表明，改进后的算法不但保持了原方法的优点，而且更实用，临界滑面的自动搜索变得更为可靠与稳定，并将此算法纳入到自主研发的ZSlope边坡稳定分析软件中。  相似文献   

测定地下水补给温度与降雨量的最新方法--惰性气体法     

王凤林  毛绪美  汪玉松  程胜高  刘存富 《水文地质工程地质》2006,33(2):1-3,18

地下水补给温度与降雨量是重要的水文地质参数，已有的测定方法大多只能给出其相对变化。本文介绍的惰性气体法能同时求得地下水补给温度与降雨量的值，其基本原理是：利用地下水中惰性气体的平衡溶解量计算出地下水补给温度；在得到地下水补给温度的基础上，利用地下水中惰性气体的“过剩空气”量计算出降雨量。该方法主要适用于封闭条件下的深层地下水。  相似文献   

Further Study on Identifying Anomalous Large-Scale Rainfall Regimes in Phase Space          下载免费PDF全文

REN Hongli  GAO Li  ZHANG Peiqun  LI Weijing 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2006,20(1):62-71

Using a 40-yr daily precipitation dataset including 134 stations from 1962 to 2001, the large-scale distribution patterns of precipitation anomalies over East China are investigated in the present paper. In the phase space spanned by the first 8 EOFs generated from the 20-day low-pass filtered data, the six rainfall regimes (RRs) are identified by applying a cluster analysis method, namely, the northeastern China regime, Yellow River regime, Qinling Mountain-Huaihe River regime, Yangtze River with its south regime, South China regime, and rainless regime. Analyses show that the new RRs exhibit good persistence and evident physical sense, and excellently represent both of countrywide and regional features, which also demonstrate the inhomogeneity of multi-dimensional phase space. Furthermore, it is more important that the new RRs can describe intraseasonal dynamic characteristics of large-scale rainfall anomalies, which is the most significant difference between the new RRs and the conventional seasonal mean rainfall patterns. On the other hand, the climatic characteristics of daily distributions of the RRs events, as well as the 40-year panorama of the RRs occurring are also investigated, which further document rationality and objectivity of the RRs with intraseasonal variability, and are likely to present more helpful information for short-term climate prediction, compared with other previous classical rainfall patterns.  相似文献   

Study on Formation Mechanisms of Heavy Rainfall Within the Meiyu Along the Mid-Lower Yangtze River and Theories and Methods of Their Detection and Prediction          下载免费PDF全文

NI Yunqi  ZHOU Xiuji 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2006,20(2):191-208

As the project of National Key Basic Research Development Program: Research on Formation Mechanisms and Predictive Theories of Major Weather Disasters in China has been fulfilled by 5-yr efforts of Chinese scientists, achieving results of great significance are as follows: 1) development of multi-scale physical models for Meiyu frontal heavy rainfall based on a range of real-time observations; 2) construction of synoptic models for such heavy rainfall; 3) the Meiyu front found to consist of multi-scale systems that represent a subtropical front, which shears structural features of an extratropical front and ITCZ, displaying sometimes a bi-front feature in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin (MLYB). The positive feedback between pre-frontal wet physical processes and over-front strong convective activities as well as interactions among multi-scale systems of the Meiyu front act as the important mechanism for the maintenance and development of the Meiyu front; 4) proposal of theories and methods for quantitative retrieval of multiple mesoscale torrential rains from satellite remote sensings, leading to a line of products; 5) investigation of applicable theories and techniques for retrieving the heavy rainfall system's 3D structure from dual-Doppler synchronous detectings; and 6) development of a system for meso heavy rainfall numerical prediction models with a 3D variational data assimilation scheme included, a tool that played an active role in flood combating and relief activities over the Huaihe River Basin (HRB) in 2003.  相似文献   

SEDIMENT MOBILIZATION BY SURFACE EROSION IN MIDDLE MOUNTAIN CATCHMENTS OF NEPAL     

Juerg MERZ Gopal NAKARMI Pradeep M. DANGOL Madhav P. DHAKAL Bhawani S. DONGOL Rolf WEINGARTNER 《国际泥沙研究》2006,21(3):180-199

1 INTRODUCTION Soil erosion in the foothills of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas (HKH) is considered to be a hot topic in land degradation research in the region (Scherr and Yadav, 1996). The land degradation research has mainly addressed the issue of topsoil los…  相似文献   

DIAGNOSTIC INVESTIGATION OF SIMULATION BIAS WITH THE GRAPES-MESO MODEL FOR A TORRENTIAL RAIN CASE     

孔荣  王建捷 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(1):69-72

In this paper, the numerical simulation bias of the non-hydrostatic version GRAPES-Meso (Mesoscale of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) at the resolution of 0.18o for a torrential rain case, which happened in May 31st to June 1st 2005 over Hunan province, are diagnosed and investigated by using the radiosondes, intensive surface observation, and the operational global analysis data, and the sensitivity experimental results as well. It is shown in the result that the GRAPES-Meso could reproduce quite well the main features of large-cale circulation and the distribution of the accumulated 24h precipitation and the key locations of the torrential rainfall are captured reasonably well by the model. However, bias exist in the simulation of the mesoscale features of the torrential rain and details of the relevant systems, for example, the simulated rainfall that is too earlier in model integration and remarkable underprediction of the peak value of rainfall rates over the heaviest rainfall region, the weakness of the upper jet simulation and the overprediction of the south-west wind in the lower troposphere etc. The investigation reveals that the sources of the simulation bias are different. The erroneous model rainfall in the earlier integration stage over the heaviest rainfall region is induced by the model initial condition bias of the wind field at about 925hPa over the torrential rainfall region, where the bias grow rapidly and spread upward to about 600hPa level within the few hours into the integration and result in abnormal convergence of the wind and moisture, and thus the unreal rainfall over that region. The large bias on the simulated rainfall intensity over the heaviest rainfall region might be imputed to the following combined factors of (1) the simulation bias on the strength and detailed structures of the upper-level jet core which bring about significant underpredictions of the dynamic conditions (including upper-level divergence and the upward motion) for heavy rainfall due to unfavorable mesoscale vertical coupling between the strong upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence; and (2) the inefficient coupling of the cumulous parameterization scheme and the explicit moisture in the integration, which causes the failure of the explicit moisture scheme in generating grid-scale rainfall in a certain extent through inadequate convective adjustment and feedback to the grid-scale. In addition, the interaction of the combined two factors could form a negative feedback to the rainfall intensity simulation, and eventually lead to the obvious underprediction of the rainfall rate.  相似文献