西北地区某干旱河流设计情景下的年径流量预测分析     

董雯  崔保山 《冰川冻土》2012,34(5):1236-1240

人类活动和气候变化对流域水文水资源的影响及由此所带来的社会、 经济和生态效应, 使得新疆精河流域出现了严重的水资源短缺和生态危机. 为此, 实施跨流域调水是解决艾比湖流域生态环境保护的必要措施, 精河上游支流是跨流域引入外水的唯一捷径河流. 根据前期研究计算的年径流量系列, 在经过论证的流域现状水平(C_v=0.12, C_s/C_v=2.00)的基础上, 采用水文频率分析方法, 设计并预测了流域规划的近期和远期目标情景下的年径流量情势. 结果显示: 为了使保证率p=75%, 近期目标要求流域的输水量为8.62×10⁸ m³, 远期目标为14.39×10⁸ m³. 跨流域调水可以满足流域多方面的实际用水需求.  相似文献   

最近60年来气候变化和人类活动对山地河流入海径流、泥沙的影响——以胶东半岛南部五龙河为例     

田清  王庆  战超  刘亚龙  李希国  刘雪萍 《海洋与湖沼》2012,43(5):891-899

采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、累积距平法、有序聚类分析法及线性回归等数学方法,以胶东半岛五龙河流域为例,对最近60年来气候变化和人类活动对山地河流入海径流、泥沙的影响进行了研究。结果表明,20世纪50年代以来五龙河入海径流、泥沙量均呈现出显著的阶段性逐级减少趋势。最近60年来,五龙河年径流量和输沙量主要集中在6—9月;主要受年降水量变化影响,年径流量从1980年开始显著减少,并在1966年出现较大波动;受年降水和径流变化影响,年输沙量也分别在1966和1980年呈减少突变;总体来看,年输沙量减少的趋势性要强于径流量。除气候变化影响外,1966年以来流域内大面积坡耕地改梯田和园地、林地建设等人类活动,也是造成河流径流、泥沙减少的重要原因。整体而言,最近60年来,气候变化和人类活动因素对五龙河入海水沙总量减少的贡献率分别为70%—80%和20%—30%。  相似文献   

塔里木河三源流区气候变化对径流量的影响   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2  

傅丽昕  陈亚宁  李卫红  徐长春  何斌 《干旱区地理》2008,31(2):237-242

结合对近50年塔里木河源流区气象、水文资料的分析,探讨了过去半个世纪塔里木河源流区气候变化及其对河川径流的影响。研究结果显示,在过去50年里,塔里木河三源流径流流量总体呈现增加的趋势,期间有波动过程;对影响径流变化的气温、降水和蒸发等因子分析发现,降水量变化对塔里木河径流量变化影响最为显著,而温度的升高,加速了山区冰雪资源的消融,加大了冰雪融水对径流量的补给,但同时导致蒸发量增大,增加了地表淡水资源的消耗,对山区来水量的增大起到一定的削弱作用。  相似文献   

Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961–2005     

Zijun Li  Xiubin Li  Zhimei Xu 《地理学报(英文版)》2010,20(6):947-960

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area, the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961–2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station (Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations. Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method. The referenced period (1961–1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period (1981–2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961–2005 applying double accumulative curve method, mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique. Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model, impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s, the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970. (2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities. (3) During 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2005 and 1981–2005, the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×10⁸, 0.28×10⁸, 1.10×10⁸ and 0.79×10⁸ m³ respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%, 7.13%, 40.71% and 23.79% accordingly. Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.  相似文献   

Impacts of climatic change on river runoff in northern Xinjiang of China over last fifty years   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

Yuhui Yang  Yaning Chen  Weihong Li  Minzhong Wang  Guili Sun 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2010,20(3):193-201

The characteristics of climatic change and river runoff, as well as the response of river runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over the last 50 years by the methods of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the nonlinear regression model. The results show that: 1) The temperature and the precipitation increased significantly in the whole northern Xinjiang, but the precipitation displayed no obvious change, or even a decreasing trend in the northern mountainous area of the northern Xinjiang. 2) River runoff varied in different regions in the northern Xinjiang. It significantly increased in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang (p=0.05), while slightly increased in the west of the northern Xinjiang. 3) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects river runoff by influencing temperature and precipita-tion. The NAO and precipitation had apparent significant correlations with the river runoff, but the temperature did not in the northern Xinjiang. Since the mid-1990s river runoff increase was mainly caused by the increasing temperature in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang. Increased precipitation resulted in increased river runoff in the west of the northern Xinjiang.  相似文献   

环境变化对澜沧江出境水文过程变异的影响     

王乐扬  张建云  宁忠瑞  贾雨凡  孙高霞  王国庆 《水科学进展》2024,(2):313-324

变化环境改变河流水文节律,影响流域水资源的开发利用;澜沧江-湄公河是位于东南亚源于中国西南的跨境河流,科学厘清澜沧江径流变化原因是实现澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水利益共享的重要基础工作。基于1961—2020年允景洪水文站的实测径流量资料,采用数理统计与水文模拟相结合的研究途径,诊断径流序列的变异特征,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流及其年内分配的影响。结果表明：(1) 1961—2020年允景洪站实测年径流量呈显著性减少趋势,其中,1—5月径流量呈增加趋势,6—12月径流量呈减少趋势;实测年径流量在2008年发生突变。(2) RCCC-WBM模型能够较好地模拟基准期(1961—2008年)的天然径流量过程,模拟相对误差小于1%;模拟的人类活动影响期间(2009—2020年)天然径流量约为371.8 mm,较基准期偏少6.8%,这是气候变化引起的。(3)水利工程建设运行是澜沧江最主要的人类活动,是水库蓄水运行期(2009—2013年)径流减少的主要原因;气候变化对水库稳定正常运行期(2014—2020年)径流减少贡献更大,约为61.7%。(4)水库运行调度使得2014—2020年汛期(6—...  相似文献   

The key indicators of transboundary water apportionment based on international laws and cases   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

冯彦  何大明  李运刚 《地理学报(英文版)》2013,23(4):710-720

Transboundary water, more competitive utilization and uncertain availability under the globalization trend, the issue of its apportionment which directly impacts national benefits of each riparian state is becoming one of the important topics in the world. Water is scarce in China, the most important upstream state in Asia, and this task has to be thought over in the coming future. Based on ＂International Freshwater Treaties Database＂ （1820-2007） by Oregon State University, and publications and reports on transboundary water utilization and management since 1999, 28 indicators of water apportionment adopted in 49 international treaties and cases in 1864-2002 are divided into 6 types, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the adopted indicators are analyzed in order to find the key indicator（s） of transboundary water apportionment. The major results include： the major adopted indicators, have significant differences among 5 regions/continents, the indicators at rank first and second place in the developed region （North America and Europe） according to the adopted times are ＂keeping minimum water flow＂ and ＂mean annual runoff＂, but in the developing region （Asia, Africa and South America）, the ranking order of the above two indicators is reversed; the major adopted indicators in the watersheds with insufficient water are ＂mean annual runoff＂ and ＂keeping minimum water flow＂, the ones in the watersheds with sufficient water are ＂keeping minimum water flow＂ and ＂maximum water intake＂; the international treaties signed from the first phase to the fourth phase, the developing process shows a progress of ＂fewer-increasing a lot-decreasing rapidly-equation basically＂, the regional distribution of the treaties shifts mainly from the developed region to the developing one, especially to Asia and Africa; the major adopted indicators shifts from ＂keeping minimum water flow＂ and ＂mean annual runoff＂ in 1864-1945, to ＂keeping minimum water flow＂ and ＂maximum water intake＂ in 1946-1971, then to ＂hydraulic facility operation＂ and ＂mean annual runoff＂ in 1972-1991, and finally to ＂keeping minimum water flow＂ and ＂mean annual runoff＂ in 1992-2002, the process shows similar a loop. Finally, the key indicator on transboundary water apportionment can be determined as ＂keeping minimum water flow＂.  相似文献   

呼和浩特地区近60年气候变化对地表径流量的影响     

关云鹏  宋玉坤 《西部资源》2013,(3):119-120

收集呼和浩特地区23个气象站、19处水文站1951～2009年近60年的气象水文数据,分析了气象要素与径流量的变化规律。用回归方法建立了径流量与气象要素之间的模型—对数型非线性模型。运用MATLAB软件对气象要素变化进行了灵敏度分析,得出降水量变化是导致径流量变化的主要原因之一。根据未来气候变化,预测2030年呼和浩特地区地表径流量为6.8～7.1×108m3。  相似文献   

三江源地区降雪量演变特征及其对径流的影响     

刘义花  李红梅  申红艳  刘绿柳  任德山  李金海 《高原气象》2022,41(2):420-429

利用1961-2019年三江源地区19个气象台站逐日气温、降水量等气象观测数据,分析了三江源地区降雪量、降雪日数和雪雨比的时空演变特征及其对径流量的影响。结果表明：（1）1961-2019年三江源地区平均降雪量为146.5 mm,降雪量以14.8 mm·（10a）^-1的速率在减少,1985-1999年为降雪量偏多期,2000年以来为降雪量偏少期;（2）三江源地区年平均雪雨比以4.0%·（10a）-1的速率在减少,长江源区西部及黄河源区西部是雪雨比减少最为明显的区域,其余地区减少速率相对缓慢;（3）三江源地区年平均降雪日数为91天,曲麻莱、五道梁、沱沱河一带以及黄河源区中西部是降雪日数的大值区,降雪日数以14 d·（10a）^-1的速率在减少,黄河源区西部是降雪日数减少最为明显的区域;（4）三江源地区各月降雪量及降雪日数均呈双峰型分布,降雪量和降雪日数最多出现在5月,小雪易出现在3月或4月,中雪和大雪以上量级在秋末、春季出现的概率最高;（5）随着海拔的抬升,降雪量和降雪日数增加,随经度的增加而减少;冷季降雪量多的年份,径流量也随之增大,且径流量相...  相似文献   

基于遗传算法的BP网络在黄河三门峡年径流量预测中的应用     

陶海龙  黄卫东  颜帮琼  张胜召  刘阳彬 《水文》2012,32(3):34-37

提出了一种基于遗传算法(genetic algorithms,GA)的BP神经网络模型来进行径流量预测。此模型融合了遗传优化算法的全局寻优能力和BP神经网络的局部搜索的优势,有效地防止了网络陷入局部极小值,同时又保证了预测结果的精确性。仿真实验结果表明:在黄河三门峡1950~1985年年径流量预测方面,GA-BP模型预测的平均相对误差为5.67%,标准BP算法的模型平均预测误差为11.05%,说明提出的GA-BP径流量方法行之有效。  相似文献