Rethinking barriers to adaptation: Mechanism-based explanation of impasses in the governance of an innovative adaptation measure     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

Many of the possible barriers in the governance of climate change adaptation have already been identified and catalogued in the academic literature. Thus far it has proven to be difficult to provide meaningful recommendations on how to deal with these barriers. In this paper we propose a different perspective, with different epistemological assumptions about cause and effect than most existing barrier studies, to analyze why adaptation is often challenging. Using the mechanismic framework, we study how the idea for an innovative “Water Plaza” was realized in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Mechanisms are understood as patterns of interaction between actors that bring about change in the governance process that lead to policy impasses. Our analysis reveals three mechanisms that explain the impasses in the first Water Plaza pilot project: the risk-innovation mechanism, the frame polarization mechanism, and the conflict infection mechanism. Only after several substantive changes in the project design, location choice, and process architecture was the project of Water Plaza's revitalized. We discuss how the short-sighted ideas about cause–effect relationships, reflected in the superficial identification of barriers, may prove to be counterproductive; if there is high uncertainty about the risks of an innovation, the solution of offering more certainty is not very helpful and could, as it happened in the case study, trigger other mechanisms, creating an even tighter deadlock. Our study also suggests that when adaptation is considered as something innovative, the chances will increase that the risk-innovation mechanism will occur. We conclude that unearthing mechanisms offers new opportunities and different types of strategic interventions in practice than most existing studies have offered.  相似文献   

Maladaptive trajectories of change in Makira, Solomon Islands   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ioan Fazey  Nathalie Pettorelli  Jasper Kenter  Daniel Wagatora  Daniel Schuett 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(4):1275-1289

Trajectories of change are dynamic processes of individual, group and/or societal responses to change which create further change and responses, with outcomes that reflect the cumulative properties of those processes. Understanding trajectories of change is an important initial step for designing appropriate adaptation strategies because even though responses may enable people to cope with change in the short term, the accumulated responses of individuals can generate undesirable maladaptive outcomes over longer periods of time. This paper examines trajectories of change in Kahua, Solomon Islands, where people have traditionally relied on subsistence activities and have in the past been subsistence affluent. Participatory methods, including 76 focus group discussions in 38 communities with 821 individuals, were used to determine changes in the region and its drivers. A conceptual model was developed of the underlying feedback processes within the Kahua social–ecological system. The results show that communities are facing rapid and extensive changes. Most changes, however, are being driven by the two key drivers of population growth and a strong desire for monetary prosperity that act synergistically to generate stress in communities. People are generally responding by focusing on income generation, which is reinforcing stress in communities and resulting in maladaptive trajectories of change. The results suggest development policy in the Solomon Islands needs to: (1) take the challenges of population growth much more seriously; (2) place greater effort on development activities that reduce per capita impact on the environment; (3) improve management of the high expectations for monetary prosperity; (4) increase emphasis on wellbeing aspects of development rather than income generation per se, and (5) better align development with existing adaptation strategies to ensure that vulnerability to future global change does not increase.  相似文献   

Hurricane preparedness as anticipatory adaptation: A case study of community businesses   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Peter D. Howe 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):711-720

This paper examines adaptation to current storm surge flood risk as one indicator of anticipatory adaptation to climate change impacts. Focusing on community businesses, a web-based survey obtained information on hurricane preparedness and risk perceptions in Sarasota County, Florida. A model of current precautionary action that utilized previously identified business characteristics predictive of business preparedness and post-disaster recovery, a spatial variable indicating storm surge exposure, and items measuring the risk perception and information-seeking behavior of business owners explained a majority of the variance in current levels of preparedness. Use of online risk information sources and the geographic distribution of customers and were the strongest predictors of preparedness. Results indicate that the adaptive capacity of businesses may vary significantly with types of businesses, locations, and socio-cognitive characteristics of business owners. To encourage overall community resilience, risk communication efforts should be targeted based on specific elements that predict business preparedness.  相似文献   

A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lilibeth Acosta  Richard J.T. Klein  Pytrik Reidsma  Marc J. Metzger  Mark D.A. Rounsevell  Rik Leemans  Dagmar Schröter 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1211-1224

Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity, which can be combined with impact models to support quantitative vulnerability assessment. The adaptive capacity model is based on twelve socio-economic indicators, each of which is projected into the future using four global environmental change scenarios, and then aggregated into an adaptive capacity index in a stepwise approach using fuzzy set theory. The adaptive capacity model provides insight into broad patterns of adaptive capacity across Europe, the relative importance of the various determinants of adaptive capacity, and how adaptive capacity changes over time under different social and economic assumptions. As such it provides a context for the implementation of specific adaptation measures. This could improve integrated assessment models and could be extended to other regions. However, there is a clear need for a better theoretical understanding of the adaptive capacity concept, and its relationship to the actual implementation of adaptation measures. This requires more empirical research and coordinated meta-analyses across regions and economic sectors, and the development of bottom-up modelling techniques that can incorporate human decision making.  相似文献   

Providing new homes for climate change exiles     

Sujatha Byravan  Sudhir Chella Rajan 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):247-252

Abstract

Given a certain pre-existing commitment to sea-level rise due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system, several million people living in coastal areas and small islands will inevitably be displaced by the middle of the century. These climate exiles will have nowhere to go. Rather than deal with this in an ad hoc manner as the problem arises, the authors propose a mechanism by which these exiles would be given immigration benefits by countries through a formula that ties numbers of immigrants to a country's historical greenhouse gas emissions. Such a compensatory mechanism appears to be a fair way of addressing the problems faced by climate exiles.  相似文献   

Limits and barriers to adaptation to climate variability and change in Bangladeshi coastal fishing communities     

《Marine Policy》2014

Limits and barriers to adaptation restrict people’s ability to address the negative impacts of climate change or manage risks in a way that maximises their wellbeing. There is a lack of evidence of this on small-scale fishing communities in developing countries. This study identifies and characterises limits and barriers to adaptation of fishing activities to cyclones and examines interactions between them in two fishing communities in Bangladesh, using household questionnaires, oral history interviews, vulnerability matrices and focus group discussions. The limits include physical characteristics of climate and sea like higher frequency and duration of cyclones, and hidden sandbars. Barriers include technologically poor boats, inaccurate weather forecast, poor radio signal, lack of access to credit, low incomes, underestimation of cyclone occurrence, coercion of fishermen by the boat owners and captains, lack of education, skills and livelihood alternatives, unfavourable credit schemes, lack of enforcement of fishing regulations and maritime laws, and lack of access to fish markets. These local and wider scale factors interact in complex ways and constrain completion of fishing trips, coping with cyclones at sea, safe return of boats from sea, timely responses to cyclones and livelihood diversification. The findings indicate a need for further detailed research into the determinants and implications of such limits and barriers, in order to move towards an improved characterisation of adaptation and to identify most suitable means to overcome the limits and barriers.  相似文献   

Policy support,social capital,and farmers’ adaptation to drought in China     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

Increasingly severe drought has not only threatened food security but also resulted in massive socio-economic losses. In the face of increasingly serious drought conditions, the question of how to mitigate its impacts through appropriate measures has received great attention. The overall goal of this study is to examine the influence of policies and social capital on farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation measures against drought. The study is based on a large-scale household and village survey conducted in six provinces nationwide. The survey results show that 86% of rural households have taken adaptive measures to protect crop production against drought, most of which are non-engineering measures. In the case of non-engineering measures, changing agricultural production inputs and adjusting seeding or harvesting dates are two popular options. A multivariate regression analysis reveals that government policy support against drought such as releasing early warning information and post-disaster services, technical assistance, financial and physical supports have significantly improved farmers’ ability to adapt to drought. However, since only 5% of villages benefited from such supports, the government in China still has significant room to implement these assistances. Moreover, having a higher level of social capital in a farm household significantly increases their adaptation capacity against drought. Therefore, the government should pay particular attention to the farming communities, and farmers within a community who have a low level of social capital. Finally, farmers’ ability to adapt to drought is also associated with the characteristics of their households and local communities. The results of this study also have implications for national adaptation plans for agriculture under climate change in other developing countries.  相似文献   

Understanding the adaptation deficit: Why are poor countries more vulnerable to climate events than rich countries?     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

Poor countries are more heavily affected by extreme weather events and future climate change than rich countries. One of the reasons for this is the so-called adaptation deficit, that is, limits in the ability of poorer countries to adapt. This paper analyses the link between income and adaptation to climate events theoretically and empirically. We postulate that the adaptation deficit may be due to two factors: A demand effect, whereby the demand for the good “climate security” increases with income, and an efficiency effect, which works as a spill-over externality on the supply-side: Adaptation productivity in high-income countries is enhanced because of factors like better public services and stronger institutions. Using panel data from the Munich Re natural catastrophe database we find strong evidence for a demand effect for adaptation to two climate-related extreme events, tropical cyclones and floods. Evidence on the efficiency effect is more equivocal. There are some indications that adaptation in rich countries might be more efficient, but the evidence is far from conclusive. The implication for research is that better data, in particular on adaptation effort, need to be collected to understand adaptation efficiency. In terms of policy, we conclude that inclusive growth policies (which boost adaptation demand) should be an important component of international efforts to close the adaptation deficit.  相似文献   

Smallholder farmer cropping decisions related to climate variability across multiple regions     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

A long history of household-level research has provided important local-level insights into climate adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. It remains unclear to what extent these strategies are generalizable or vary across regions. In this study we ask about three potential key factors influencing farming households’ ability to adapt: access to weather information, household and agricultural production-related assets, and participation in local social institutions. We use a 12-country data set from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to explore the links between these three potential drivers of agricultural change and the likelihood that farmers made farm-associated changes, such as adopting improved crop varieties, increasing fertilizer use, investing in improved land management practices, and changing the timing of agricultural activities. We find evidence that access to weather information, assets, and participation in social institutions are associated with households that have reported making farming changes in recent years, although these results vary across countries and types of practices. Understanding these drivers and outcomes of farm-associated changes across different socio-economic and environmental conditions is critical for ongoing dialogues for climate-resilient strategies and policies for increasing the adaptive capacity of smallholders under climate change.  相似文献   

Marine mammal co-management in Canada’s Arctic: Knowledge co-production for learning and adaptive capacity     

Aaron Dale  Derek Armitage 《Marine Policy》2011

This paper examines the challenge of knowledge co-production and the implications for learning and adapting in the context of a narwhal co-management in Nunavut, Canada. Knowledge co-production is the collaborative process of bringing a plurality of knowledge sources and types together to address a defined problem and build an integrated or systems-oriented understanding of that problem. The paper considers knowledge co-production by examining five interrelated dimensions: knowledge gathering, sharing, integration, interpretation, and application. Voices of hunters, community representatives, and managers engaged in co-management are highlighted to identify primary challenges and opportunities. The analysis reveals how compartmentalized views of knowledge continue to constrain adaptive and collaborative management. An understanding of knowledge co-production processes, however, may help to overcome the resilience of top-down management approaches.  相似文献