Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon     

S. M. Bawiskar  V. R. Mujumdar  S. S. Singh 《Journal of Earth System Science》2002,111(2):153-157

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of the climate in the Tianmu Mountain area, Zhejiang Province, in the last 160 years by ? 13C sequence of tree ring α-cellulose     

钱君龙  吕军  屠其璞  王苏民 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2002,45(5)

Based on cross-dating tree rings from the Tianmu Mountain, Zhejiang Province, the tree rings α-cellulose δ 13C time series was measured. By spectrum analysis, the variation of tree-ring δ13C sequence shows a quasi periodicity of 4.4 years, which is coincident with the standard cycle of El Nino. After removing the long-term decrease trend of the δ13C variation related to atmospheric CO2 concentration, the response of the δ13C to climate elements was analyzed using meteorology data from a nearby weather station. The results suggest that there is a distinct relativity between high-frequency variation of tree ring δ 13C series and seasonal climate parameters, e.g. Temperature and precipitation, with a significant time-lag effect. In addition, the high frequency also reflects the strength change of the East Asian Monsoon. The multiple regression method was employed to reconstruct the historical climate, and to analyze the climate change and trend in the last 160 years in the northern Zhejiang Province.  相似文献   

Crisis, coincidences and strategic market behaviour: the internationalization of Indonesian clothing brand-owners     

Markus Hassler 《Area》2003,35(3):241-250

Despite the fact that most Indonesian brand-owners continue to emphasize their marketing activities in the domestic market, several brand-owners have started to export clothing under their own label. This has been particularly the result of the economic crisis in the late 1990s, which affected companies serving the domestic market. Companies were trying to compensate for the loss of sales on the domestic market by redirecting their marketing activities to foreign countries. This export strategy has been driven largely by the sole aim to survive. However, in addition to these export activities, some companies have rather sophisticated, long-standing business relations to their distributors in overseas markets. This paper explores these export activities in the context of the global commodity chain framework.  相似文献   

过去5000年西太平洋副热带高压活动的泥炭纤维素碳同位素记录   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

洪业汤  洪冰  林庆华  朱泳煊  姜洪波  王羽 《第四纪研究》2003,23(5):485-492

文章以金川和红原两组泥炭纤维素Δδ¹³C时间序列值的反向变化来指示西太平洋副热带高压活动变化.结果表明,在过去5000年中,西太平洋副热带高压的活动可分为4个阶段,即西太平洋副热带高压位置在2800～2200B.C.期间持续偏北,2200～600B.C.期间持续偏南,600B.C.～1200A.D.期间在北进与南移之间频繁波动,以及1200～1900A.D.期间再次持续偏北,它们导致降雨量在中国大陆上不同的分布.从约1900A.D.起西太平洋副热带高压的活动似乎又开始一个新的偏南阶段,值得进一步加强研究.  相似文献   

40～30ka B.P.中国暖湿气候和海侵的特征与成因探讨   总被引：30，自引：0，他引：30       下载免费PDF全文

施雅风  于革 《第四纪研究》2003,23(1):1-11

40～30kaB.P.相当于末次冰期(75～10kaB.P.)中的大间冰阶或海洋氧同位素第3阶段的晚期(MIS3a),已有测年记录的冰芯、湖泊沉积、孢粉与古生物、黄土与沙漠地区古土壤、石灰岩洞穴中石笋、古河道沉积、滨海地区海相沉积等7种记录指示我国各区域的湿润程度即降水量高于现代,青藏高原和西北地区尤为显著.西部和华南地区的温度明显高于现代,但较多的孢粉研究者认为东北、华北和长江流域的温度略低于现代.降水量的增加对内陆水系的合并和外流的黄河和长江流域等产生重大影响.渤海西侧、长江三角洲南北与珠江三角洲南部出现重大海侵,当时海平面高度仅低于现代海平面8～10m.当时暖湿气候与海侵的主要动力是岁差周期导致的中、低纬度太阳高辐射所提供的热力促使冰盖消融萎缩,海洋扩涨,青藏高原热低压增强,吸引季风降水,中、低纬度区海洋加热蒸发,增强夏季风与西风环流的水汽含量导致我国全境暖湿.高分辨率的西昆仑山古里雅冰芯记录和南京汤山洞穴石笋记录表明气候有许多百年级高频振荡波动,不是稳定暖湿,要作更深入研究才能说明其表现和影响.  相似文献   

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840 ——Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea     

刘禹  Won-Kyu Park  蔡秋芳  Jung-Wook Seo  Hyun-Sook Jung 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2003,46(10)

The main characteristic of the East Asian climate is the monsoon system. Plenty of studies have demonstrated that the Asian monsoon system plays a crucial role in the global climate sys- tem [1-4]. The Asian summer monsoon can be divided into two parts, t…  相似文献   

苏皖地块构造演化、苏鲁造山带形成及其耦合的盆地发育   总被引：34，自引：2，他引：34  

吴根耀  马力  陈焕疆  徐克定 《大地构造与成矿学》2003,27(4):337-353

郯庐断裂带一度是古特提斯洋域中的转换断层,其东的苏皖地块和胶辽克拉通分别是曾经独立于扬子克拉通和华北克拉通之外的构造单元。苏皖地块原属中朝构造域,因中元古代时苏鲁洋的张开而向南漂移,震旦纪起归入华南构造域。受北东东-近东西向的江南断裂和江绍断裂右行走滑活动控制,苏皖地块及怀玉地块在石炭纪末-三叠纪时脱离华南构造域,成为古特提斯洋域中的中间地块。中国东部地区东亚燕山期山系的形成受两个地球动力学系统制约:一是苏鲁洋的消减及闭合后苏皖地块与胶辽克拉通的碰撞,二是江南断裂和江绍断裂的先剪后压,苏皖地块与拼合了的扬子-华北克拉通间发生斜向会聚和剪切造山,怀玉地块仰冲超叠在苏皖地块上。分5个阶段(印支期消减,早-中侏罗世斜向会聚,晚侏罗-早白垩世消减,早白垩世碰撞和燕山造山带坍塌)叙述了中生代造山作用的表现和特点,探讨了与各阶段造山作用耦合的盆地类型和时空分布。因燕山造山带的坍塌而燕山运动构建的“盆”“山”关系解脱,中国东部第三纪的伸展盆地直接叠加在燕山造山带的坍塌裂谷上。  相似文献   

Circulation characteristics of a monsoon depression during BOBMEX-99 using high-resolution analysis     

Ananda K. Das  U. C. Mohanty  Someshwar Das  M. Manual  S. R. Kalsi 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(2):165-184

The skill and efficiency of a numerical model mostly varies with the quality of initial values, accuracy on parameterization of physical processes and horizontal and vertical resolution of the model. Commonly used low-resolution reanalyses are hardly able to capture the prominent features associated with organized convective processes in a monsoon depression. The objective is to prepare improved high-resolution analysis by the use of MM5 modelling system developed by the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR). It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution of 2.5‡ (latitude/longitude) have been used as first guess in the objective analysis scheme. The additional asynoptic datasets obtained during BOBMEX-99 are utilized within the assimilation process. Cloud Motion Wind (CMW) data of METEOSAT satellite and SSM/I surface wind data are included for the improvement of derived analysis. The multiquadric (MQD) interpolation technique is selected and applied for meteorological objective analysis at a horizontal resolution of 30 km. After a successful inclusion of additional data, the resulting reanalysis is able to produce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with monsoon depression. Comparison and error verifications have been done with the help of available upper-air station data. The objective verification reveals the efficiency of the analysis scheme.  相似文献   

Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999     

A. K. Mitra  M. Das Gupta  R. K. Paliwal  S. V. Singh 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(2):223-232

A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.  相似文献   

北极涛动对东亚夏季降水的预测意义   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

龚道溢 《气象》2003,29(6):3-6

分析了春季北极涛动(AO)指数的变化对梅雨—Changma——Baiu带夏季降水年际变化的影响。对观测的东亚10个站的降水长序列资料(1899—1999年)，进行滤波处理，保留10年以下的年际时间尺度的变化，再进行相关分析。结果表明，近百年的5月北极涛动指数与10站夏季平均降水相关最高达—0．45，超过99％信度水平。当北极涛动偏强一个标准差时，整个长江中下游地区到日本南部一带，降水减少平均约8％左右。降水的这种变化与对流层东亚急流的变化密切相关：春季北极涛动强时，随后夏季急流位置通常偏北，雨带位置也北移，从而造成梅雨—Changma——Baiu带降水减少，反之亦然。较强的AO异常对降水的影响更明显，而较弱的AO与降水异常的对应关系并不显著。这对东亚夏季年际降水异常具有一定的预测意义。  相似文献