Using regional regression within index flood procedures and an empirical Bayesian estimator     

Heinz D. Fill  Jery R. Stedinger 《Journal of Hydrology》1998,210(1-4):128-145

Studies have illustrated the performance of at-site and regional flood quantile estimators. For realistic generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and short records, a simple index-flood quantile estimator performs better than two-parameter (2P) GEV quantile estimators with probability weighted moment (PWM) estimation using a regional shape parameter and at-site mean and L-coefficient of variation (L-CV), and full three-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimators. However, as regional heterogeneity or record lengths increase, the 2P-estimator quickly dominates. This paper generalizes the index flood procedure by employing regression with physiographic information to refine a normalized T-year flood estimator. A linear empirical Bayes estimator uses the normalized quantile regression estimator to define a prior distribution which is employed with the normalized 2P-quantile estimator. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that this empirical Bayes estimator does essentially as well as or better than the simpler normalized quantile regression estimator at sites with short records, and performs as well as or better than the 2P-estimator at sites with longer records or smaller L-CV.  相似文献   

A new soil freeze/thaw discriminant algorithm using AMSR‐E passive microwave imagery     

Tianjie Zhao  Lixin Zhang  Lingmei Jiang  Shaojie Zhao  Linna Chai  Rui Jin 《水文研究》2011,25(11):1704-1716

The soil freeze–thaw controls the hydrological and carbon cycling and thus affects water and energy exchanges at land surface. This article reported a newly developed algorithm for distinguishing the freeze/thaw status of surface soil. The algorithm was based on information from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Enhanced (AMSR‐E) which records brightness temperature (Tb) in the afternoon and after midnight. The criteria and discriminant functions were obtained from both radiometer observations and model simulations. First of all, the microwave radiation from freeze–thaw soil was examined by carrying out experimental measurements at 18·7 and 36·5 GHz using a Truck‐mounted Multi‐frequency Microwave Radiometer (TMMR) in the Heihe River of China. The experimental results showed that the soil moisture is a key component that differentiates the microwave radiation behaviours during the freeze–thaw process, and the differences in soil temperature and emissivity between frozen and thawed soils were found to be the most important criteria. Secondly, a combined model was developed to consider the impacts of complex ground surface conditions on the discrimination. The model simulations quite followed the trend of in situ observations with an overall relation coefficient (R) of approximately 0·88. Finally, the ratio of Tb18·7H (horizontally polarized Tb at 18·7 GHz) to Tb36·5V was considered primarily as the quasi‐emissivity, which is more reasonable and explicit in measuring the microwave radiation changes in soil freezing and thawing than the spectral gradient. By combining Tb36·5V to indicate the soil temperature variety, a Fisher linear discrimination analysis was used to establish the discriminant functions. After being corrected by TMMR measurements, the new discriminant algorithm had an overall accuracy of 86% when validated by 4‐cm soil temperature. The multi‐year discriminant results also provided a good agreement with the classification map of frozen ground in China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Bayesian analysis of stage–fall–discharge models for gauging stations affected by variable backwater     

Asgeir Petersen‐Øverleir  Trond Reitan 《水文研究》2009,23(21):3057-3074

Parsimonious stage–fall–discharge rating curve models for gauging stations subject to backwater complications are developed from simple hydraulic theory. The rating curve models are compounded in order to allow for possible shifts in the hydraulics when variable backwater becomes effective. The models provide a prior scientific understanding through the relationship between the rating curve parameters and the hydraulic properties of the channel section under study. This characteristic enables prior distributions for the rating curve parameters to be easily elicited according to site‐specific information and the magnitude of well‐known hydraulic quantities. Posterior results from three Norwegian and one American twin‐gauge stations affected by variable backwater are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The case studies demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian rating curve assessment is appropriate for developing rating procedures for gauging stations that are subject to variable backwater. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Each fisherman is different: Taking the environmental perception of small-scale fishermen into account to manage marine protected areas     

《Marine Policy》2015

One of the reasons for the failure of some Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is the lack of respect for their boundaries and regulations, which intensifies the need to assess the attitudes of stakeholders affected by MPAs. To this end, it is necessary to know the perception and behavior of resource users in these areas in relation to the management process. This study addressed the perception of different groups of fishermen in three MPAs that allow sustainable use of resources on the Brazilian northeastern coast. The perception analysis was based on four aspects: biodiversity conservation, flexibility and adaptability of fishermen, participation in management and opinions about the MPA. The interviewed fishermen (n=100) were classified into natives or immigrants,≥than 40 years old or <40, predominant use of selective or nonselective fishing gear and part or full time fishermen. The results showed that younger fishermen and the ones who use selective fishing gear presented a more conservation prone perception; nonselective fishermen and part-time fishermen were more flexible and adaptable to changes; and younger fishermen tended to agree more with the establishment of the MPAs. Taking these differences in perceptions among fishermen into account could serve as a basis for improvements in the management and conservation of fishing resources, besides helping predict possible future behavior due to changes in management policies.  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯融合方法的高分辨率地面-卫星-雷达三源降水融合试验   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：14  

潘旸  沈艳  宇婧婧  熊安元 《气象学报》2015,73(1):177-186

为了探讨一种适用于区域性的地面、雷达、卫星等多源降水资料融合的方法,一种曾用于高分辨雷达、卫星土壤湿度产品反演的贝叶斯融合(Bayesian Merging)方法被尝试应用于江淮地区1 h-0.05°×0.05°经纬度高分辨率的雷达估测降水、卫星反演降水与地面站点观测降水3种资料的融合。在应用该方法时,通过2009年8月样本统计分别估计卫星和雷达反演降水的误差关系,通过曲线拟合建立误差方程,并以卫星资料作为背景场,但在融合时将雷达估测降水作为新的观测信息与地面观测降水同时引入。融合试验检验结果表明:贝叶斯融合方法能够有效实现雷达、地面、卫星3种不同来源资料的融合,该方法生成的多源融合产品的精度均优于任何单一来源的降水产品。  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯模型的器测、古气候重建与气候模拟数据的融合试验     

余君  李庆祥  张同文  徐文慧  张雷  崔妍 《气象学报》2018,76(2):304-314

气象部门馆藏的西部最早的器测气象资料始于20世纪30年代,不能满足建立20世纪以来中国气候变化序列的需求,而古气候重建或气候模拟资料则可以延伸到器测时代以前。为了探讨长序列多源气候资料序列融合方法,采用贝叶斯方法对中国北疆地区8条树轮气温重建资料、器测资料与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）模式模拟资料进行了融合试验。首先利用器测资料对气温代用资料进行校验与网格重建,并以此作为贝叶斯模型的先验分布,然后,用泰勒图选出了该区域气候模拟效果最佳的几个模式;最后将网格重建和气候模拟序列用贝叶斯模型进行了融合试验。结果表明,贝叶斯融合模型能有效提取各种数据来源的有用信息进行融合,融合结果的长期变化（线性）趋势更接近器测气候序列,并在一定程度上提高了序列的精度,减小了结果的不确定性;并且,融合结果能够纠正先验分布及气候模拟数据的明显偏差,为长年代气候序列重建提供了一个可行的思路。   相似文献   

Biochemical‐genetic and meristic evidence that blue and copper moki (Teleostei: Latridae: Latridopsis) are discrete species     

P. J. Smith  C. D. Roberts  P. G. Benson 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(2):387-395

Specimens of blue moki Latridopsis ciliaris (Forster in Bloch & Schneider, 1801) from New Zealand were shown to differ from specimens of copper moki Latridopsis forsteri (Castelnau, 1872) using two genetic methods—allozymes and muscle proteins. Allozyme techniques revealed fixed differences between blue and copper moki at 4 out of 15 loci. There was a genetic distance of 0.31–0.34 between population samples of the two colour morphs. The two morphs were also distinguished by iso‐electric focusing of muscle proteins. Meristic characters, counted in the specimens studied with genetic markers, revealed diagnostic markers in tubed lateral line scales and scales in the lower transverse series. It is concluded that specimens of blue moki from New Zealand and copper moki from New Zealand and Tasmania are valid species.  相似文献   

Optical detection of Prorocentrum donghaiense blooms based on multispectral reflectance     

TAO Bangyi  PAN Delu  MAO Zhihu  SHEN Yuzhang  ZHU Qiankun  CHEN Jianyu 《海洋学报(英文版)》2013,32(10):48-56

Prorocentrum donghaiense is one of the most common red tide causative dinoflagellates in the Changjiang （Yangtze） River Estuary and the adjacent area of the East China Sea. It causes large-scale blooms in late spring and early summer that lead to widespread ecologic and economic damage. A means for distinguish- ing dinoflagellate blooms from diatom （Skeletonema costatum） blooms is desired. On the basis of measure- ments of remote sensing refectance [Rrs（λ）] and inherent optical parameters, the potential of using a mul- tispectral approach is assessed for discriminating the algal blooms due to P. donghaiense from those due to S. costatum. The behavior of two reflectance ratios [R1 = Rrs（560）/Rrs（532） and Re = Rrs（708）/Rrs（665）], suggests that differentiation of P. donghaiense blooms from diatom bloom types is possible from the current band setup of ocean color sensors. It is found that there are two reflectance ratio regimes that indicate a bloom is dominated by P. donghaiense; （1） R1 〉 1.55 and R2 〈 1.0 or （2） R1 〉 1.75 and R2 ≥ 1.0. Various sensitivity analyses are conducted to investigate the effects of the variation in varying levels of chlorophyll concentration and colored dissolved organic matter （CDOM） as well as changes in the backscattering ratio （bbp/bp） on the efficacy of this muitispectral approach. Results indicate that the intensity and inherent op- tical properties of the algal species explain much of the behavior of the two ratios. Although backscattering influences the amplitude of Rrs（λ）, especially in the 530 and 560 nm bands, the discrimination between P. donghaiense and diatoms is not significantly affected by the variation of bbp/bp. Since aCDOM （440） in coastal areas of the ECS is typically lower than 1.0 m-1 in most situations, the presence of CDOM does not interfere with this discrimination, even as SCDOM varies from 0.01 to 0.026 nm-1. Despite all of these effects, the dis- crimination of P. donghaiense blooms from diatom blooms based on multispectral measurements of Rrs（λ） is feasible.  相似文献   

山东某铁矿区地面塌陷成因判别及其意义     

高宗军  王庆兵  段秀铭  吴丽莉 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2010,21(2):55-58

山东省济南市东郊某在建铁矿,于2009年7月产生了严重的地面塌陷。通过环境地质调查发现,该矿区地面塌陷并非通常所说的采空区塌陷,而是岩溶地面塌陷。该结论为矿山地面塌陷防治提供了依据,更重要的是否定了第四系厚度大(大于35m)不能产生岩溶地面塌陷的已有认识,并预示隐伏岩溶发育地区,随着上覆松散土体厚度的加大,一旦产生岩溶地面塌陷,其规模和危害也将随之增大。  相似文献   

灰色关联度法和距离判别分析法在溪洛渡库区潜在滑坡判识中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李秀珍  王成华  邓宏艳 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2010,21(4):77-81

以溪洛渡库区深入研究的14个典型滑坡为研究对象,在初步建立潜在滑坡判识指标的基础上,运用灰色关联度理论优选确定了影响库区潜在滑坡孕育的8个关键主控因素:坡面平均坡度、滑体内冲沟切割程度、洼地封闭状况(或排水条件)、滑面平均倾角、滑面形态、下滑段长度与总滑面长度之比、滑体结构及近期活动迹象,并依据距离判别分析的理论和方法,建立了溪洛渡库区潜在滑坡的距离判识模型。该判识模型对库区5个待判滑坡样本和9个滑坡学习样本的判识准确率均达到了100%。  相似文献