Understanding El Niño — The importance of Grey Literature in Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management     

Sven Thatje  Jürgen Laudien  Olaf Heilmayer  Cornelia E. Nauen 《Marine Policy》2007

Access to information about past states of the environment and social systems is fundamental to understand, and cope with, the challenges of climate change and over-exploitation of natural resources at the onset of the 21st century. The loss of (old) data is a major threat to understanding better and mitigating long-term effects of human activities and anthropogenic changes to the environment. Although this is intuitively evident for old and local literature of any kind, even present-day international publishing of papers without the underlying raw data makes access to basic information a crucial issue. Here, we summarise experience resulting from a EU-funded International Science & Technology Cooperation (INCO) project (CENSOR) addressing Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) context. We show that indeed “Grey Literature” is still one of the most important sources of knowledge about natural science research and management of natural resource systems in Latin American countries. We argue that public archiving of original data of present-day research and old (Grey) Literature and easy public access are important for appreciating today's global environmental challenges caused by human activities, both past and present.  相似文献   

中更新世气候转型期南海北部和南部的气候变化差异          下载免费PDF全文

金海燕  翦知湣 《第四纪研究》2008,28(3):381-390

选取大洋钻探ODP184航次在南海北部采集的1144站为研究材料,通过分析中更新世0.4～1.4Ma期间506个样品中浮游有孔虫氧、碳稳定同位素的变化特征,并与南海南部ODP 1143站和西太平洋暖池ODP 807站的同位素资料进行比较,发现南海北部的氧、碳稳定同位素及其差值的变化响应中更新世气候转型事件,在中更新世距今约0.9Ma之后100ka的偏心率周期明显增强。在中更新世气候转型之前,南海北部、南海南部和赤道西太平洋都呈现出典型的热带气候特征,具有岁差和半岁差的气候周期;转型之后,随着北半球冰盖的进一步扩张,南海北部受东亚冬季风增强的影响而导致温度下降、温跃层变深,但南海南部与赤道西太平洋的温度变化较小且温跃层变浅,说明同属季风区的南海北部和南部对气候变化的响应有所不同。  相似文献   

未来不同气候变化情景下我国玉米产量的初步预测   总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21  

熊伟  杨婕  林而达  许吟隆 《地球科学进展》2008,23(10):1092-1101

玉米是我国重要的粮食和饲料作物,研究气候变化对我国玉米产量的影响有重要意义。采用区域气候模式与CERES Maize模型相结合的方法,模拟了基准气候（BS,1961—1990年）和A2、B2两种温室气体排放方案下2011—2100年我国雨养和灌溉玉米产量,初步预测了未来不同气候情景下玉米产量的变化状况。结果表明,如果保持现有的玉米生产状况,气候变化将导致我国玉米主产区的玉米单产普遍降低,总产下降,给玉米生产带来一定经济损失。A2气候变化情景对我国玉米产量的负面影响要大于B2情景。CO2肥效作用可以在一定程度上缓解这种负面影响,其缓解作用对雨养玉米更明显。未来全国玉米主产区的雨养和灌溉玉米的稳产风险及低产出现的概率将会增大,总产的年际波动更剧烈。由于目前研究结果是未考虑农业生产的适应措施而得出的,可能会高估气候变化的负面影响。  相似文献   

黑河流域水环境演变及其驱动机制研究进展   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

肖生春  肖洪浪 《地球科学进展》2008,23(7):748-755

基于近几十年来诸多学者对西北干旱区典型内陆河流域——黑河流域水环境演变诸方面研究成果,综述了上游山区成水环境、中游绿洲用水环境和下游荒漠天然绿洲水成环境在不同时间尺度上的演变过程及其驱动机制。通过对各种古环境代用指标的对比研究表明：在大尺度上,流域上下游表现出阶段性的一致性水环境演变趋势;在小尺度上,则表现水环境演变的时空异质性。驱动机制方面,在空间上,流域上、中、下游水环境演变的气候变化和人类活动影响驱动作用各有侧重;在时间上,表现为不同尺度上气候变化与流域人类活动耦合作用的驱动机制。  相似文献   

UKF算法及其在GPS卫星轨道短期预报中的应用     

郑作亚  陈永奇  卢秀山 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2008,33(3):249-252

分析了GPS卫星预报星历,在比较分析EKF和UKF优缺点的基础上,将UKF引入GPS卫星轨道预报研究中.数值模拟和结果分析表明,UKF方法预报更稳定,能有效地提高轨道预报精度和稳定性.  相似文献   

Pelagic records from the Equatorial Ninetyeast Ridge and significant environmental events during the past 3.5 Ma     

Hualing Wei  Nianqiao Fang  Xuan Ding  Lanshi Nie  Xiuming Liu 《Frontiers of Earth Science》2008,2(2):162-169

This paper presents pelagic records of planktic foraminifera, as well as data of stable isotope stratigraphy and carbonate stratigraphy since 3.5 Ma B.P. from site ODP758 in the Ninetyeast Ridge of the Indian Ocean. Based on these data, manifestations and related mechanisms of major tectonic and environmental events such as the rapid uplift of the Himalaya Mountains, “middle Pleistocene climatic transition” and “mid-Brunhes dissolution event” in the region are discussed. According to the analysis and comparison of various indices and changes in terms of foraminifera assemblage, paleotemperature, paleosalinity and themocline from site ODP758, the authors deduce that the paleoclimatic changes might correlate with the mid-Pleistocene transition at 1.4–1.7 Ma B.P. The changes of CaCO₃, mass accumulation rates (MAR) of CaCO₃ and non- CaCO₃ MAR indicate that the loaded terrigenous sediments increased at 1.7 Ma, which is in agreement with the uplift history of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau as shown by the available data. The last two changes coincide with the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, hence they are called “Qinghai-Tibet movement” (1.7 Ma), and the “Kunlun-Yellow River movement” (1.2–0.6 Ma). The changes of the CaCO₃ content, coarse fraction (> 150 μm) content and planktonic foraminifera biostratigraphy show that strong dissolution of abyssal CaCO₃ occurred in the study region during 0.5–0.4 Ma. The event was consistent with the “mid-Brunhes dissolution event” in the sedimentary records of the Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean and Nansha sea area of the South China Sea. __________ Translated from Geological Bulletin of China, 2007, 26(12): 1627–1632 [译自: 地质通报]  相似文献   

Dynamics of the mid-ocean ridge plate boundary: Recent observations and theory     

Yongshun John Chen 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,146(3-4):621-648

The global mid-ocean ridge system is one of the most active plate boundaries on the earth and understanding the dynamic processes at this plate boundary is one of the most important problems in geodynamics. In this paper I present recent results of several aspects of mid-ocean ridge studies concerning the dynamics of oceanic lithosphere at these diverging plate boundaries. I show that the observed rift valley to no-rift valley transition (globally due to the increase of spreading rate or locally due to the crustal thickness variations and/or thermal anomalies) can be explained by the strong temperature dependence of the power law rheology of the oceanic lithosphere, and most importantly, by the difference in the rheological behavior of the oceanic crust from the underlying mantle. The effect of this weaker lower crust on ridge dynamics is mainly influenced by spreading rate and crustal thickness variations. The accumulated strain pattern from a recently developed lens model, based on recent seismic observations, was proposed as an appealing mechanism for the observed gabbro layering sequence in the Oman Ophiolite. It is now known that the mid-ocean ridges at all spreading rates are offset into individual spreading segments by both transform and nontransform discontinuities. The tectonics of ridge segmentation are also spreading-rate dependent: the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge is characterized by distinct bulls-eye shaped gravity lows, suggesting large along-axis variations in melt production and crustal thickness, whereas the fast-spreading East-Pacific Rise is associated with much smaller along-axis variations. These spreading-rate dependent changes have been attributed to a fundamental differences in ridge segmentation mechanisms and mantle upwelling at mid-ocean ridges: the mantle upwelling may be intrinsically plume-like (3-D) beneath a slow-spreading ridge but more sheet-like (2-D) beneath a fast-spreading ridge.  相似文献   

Accelerating ground warming in the Canadian Prairie provinces: Is it a result of global warming?     

Jacek A. Majorowicz 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,147(1):1-24

The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the ramp function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the step function model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth.  相似文献   

极性转换期间地球磁场形态学研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

朱日祥  丁仲礼 《地球物理学报》1993,36(3):347-359

本文对采自中国黄土高原西峰（35.7°N,107.6°E）和段家坡（34.2°N,109.2°E）两个剖面中黄土层L8和古土壤层S8的1281块定向古地磁样品做了详细的岩石磁学和古地磁学研究.证实了Matuyama-Brunhes（M-B）极性转换带位于L8的中下部.提出了下列观点:1.M-B极性转换过程与地球磁场方向变化相联系的持续时间为3600-4500a,而与地球磁场强度变化相联系的持续时间则为8000-9000a,即强度变化存在“超前和滞后” 效应;2.M-B转换场的形态是由三次快速倒转和一次不成功的倒转构成,或者说,转换场具有快速变换极性的振荡特征;3.M-B转换过程中地球磁场并不是以轴对称的非偶极子场为主,而是偶极子场至少与非偶极子场相当;4.中国黄土-古土壤沉积物所含磁性矿物的主要成分是磁铁矿,它是研究极性转换期间地球磁场详细结构的良好物质.  相似文献   

碳中和目标下关键矿产在清洁能源转型中的作用、供需分析及其建议          下载免费PDF全文

王欢  马冰  贾凌霄  于洋  胡嘉修  王为 《中国地质》2021,48(6):1720-1733

在"碳中和"目标的驱动下，全球能源系统向清洁化、低碳化甚至无碳化发展已是大势所趋。针对向清洁能源转型的需求，采用了统计对比、分类汇总、综合分析等方法，分析研究了关键矿产在电池、电网、低碳发电和氢能等行业中的作用和需求。结合当前关键矿产产量的地理集中度高、项目开发周期长、资源质量下降等矿产供应和投资计划不能满足清洁能源转型的需求等问题，提出确保关键矿产多样性供应，推动价值链各环节的技术创新，扩大回收利用，增强供应链弹性和市场透明度，将更高的环境、社会和治理标准纳入主流程及加强生产者和消费者之间的国际合作等建议。  相似文献