An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response     

David P. Bacon  Nash’at N. Ahmad  Thomas J. Dunn  Michael C. Monteith  Ananthakrishna Sarma 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(3):317-327

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.  相似文献   

Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ana Maria Cruz  Norio Okada 《Natural Hazards》2008,46(2):199-220

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

Norio OkadaEmail:

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大型越江盾构隧道施工安全与风险管理探讨          下载免费PDF全文

安政翃  季玉国 《探矿工程》2008,35(12):78-83

对大型泥水盾构隧道施工安全与施工风险进行详细全面的分析,指出了施工安全与施工风险对人身安全、工程结构和施工机械设备带来的危害。结合工程实例和实践经验,对大型越江盾构隧道施工安全与风险管理进行全面探讨。  相似文献   

Viewpoint: the interface between scientific advice and fisheries management     

Hoydal  Kjartan 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):846-850

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The role of marine spatial planning in sea use management: The Belgian case   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

F. Douvere  F. Maes  A. Vanhulle  J. Schrijvers 《Marine Policy》2007

The expansion of offshore activities and the increasing need to meet international and national commitments to biodiversity conservation have led to an enhanced interest in marine spatial planning (MSP) as a tool for sea use management. Several European countries, on their own initiative or driven by European legislation and policy, have taken global leadership in implementing MSP. This article will discuss the Belgian experiences with MSP. It will give a short historical overview based on legal developments and review the implementation process of a ‘Master Plan’ as a spatial management policy for the Belgian Part of the North Sea. Additionally, this article will reflect on the research that has been done in Belgium to apply a land-use planning approach to the marine environment. The MSP process in Belgium shows that a spatial approach to sea use management is possible despite the lack of a legal zoning framework. However, it concludes that a legal basis for MSP, in addition to the current permit system, would provide a more strategic and integrated framework for ecosystem-based, sea use management.  相似文献   

Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change     

Peter J. Cowell  Thomas Q. Zeng 《Marine Geodesy》2003,26(1):5-18

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.  相似文献   

厦门海洋生物入侵的危害及管理对策   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

郑冬梅 《台湾海峡》2005,24(3):411-416

本文系统地分析了厦门海洋生物入侵的成因、现状、危害及治理方法,认为互花米草和海洋动物沙筛贝是主要的入侵物种,其严重的生态、经济和社会危害不可低估.同时明确防止海洋生物入侵的总体目标,进而提出强化管理的系列对策.  相似文献   

Management of a shallow temperate estuary to control eutrophication: The effect of hydrodynamics on the system’s nutrient loading   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A.I. Lilleb  J.M. Neto  I. Martins  T. Verdelhos  S. Leston  P.G. Cardoso  S.M. Ferreira  J.C. Marques  M.A. Pardal 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,65(4):697-707

The Mondego estuary, a shallow warm-temperate intertidal system located on the west coast of Portugal, has for some decades been under severe ecological stress, mainly caused by eutrophication. Water circulation in this system was, until 1998, mainly dependent on tides and on the freshwater input of a small tributary artificially controlled by a sluice. After 1998, the sluice opening was effectively minimised to reduce the nutrient loading, and the system hydrodynamics improved due to engineering work in the upstream areas. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of the mitigation measures implemented in 1998. Changes to the hydrodynamics of the system were assessed using precipitation and salinity data in relation to the concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients, as well as the linkage between dissolved N:P ratios and the biological parameters (phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations, green macroalgal biomass and seagrass biomass). Two distinctive periods were compared, over a ten year period: from January 1993 to January 1997 and from January 1999 until January 2003. The effective reduction in the dissolved N:P atomic ratio from 37.7 to 13.2 after 1998 is a result of lowered ammonia, but not the oxidised forms of nitrogen (nitrate plus nitrite), or increased concentrations of dissolved inorganic phosphorus. Results suggest that the phytoplankton is not nutrient limited, yet maximum and mean biomass of green macroalgae was reduced by one order of magnitude after the mitigation measures. This suggests that besides lowering the water residence time of the system, macroalgal growth became nitrogen limited. In parallel to these changes the seagrass-covered area and biomass of Zostera noltii showed signs of recovery.  相似文献   

The weakening role of science in the management of groundfish off the east coast of Canada     

Shelton  Peter A. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):723-729

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气象卫星用于近海污染监测及赤潮预报方法探索     

杨超武  田庆久  张满郎  王晋年 《海洋科学进展》1997,(4)

近年来，由于工农业和沿海养殖业的发展，我国近海污染逐年加重，赤潮发生频次增加。因此，监测近海污染和赤潮发生预报方法研究势在必行。本文用ＮＯＡＡ／ＡＶＨＲＲ数据，分析近海水域污染状况，并探索赤潮发生的预报方法。  相似文献