Identifying linear and non-linear behaviour in reduced complexity modelling output using surrogate data methods     

C.J. Keylock   《Geomorphology》2007,90(3-4):356

Validation of model output is an important issue in the environmental sciences. This is particularly the case for reduced complexity modelling approaches where verification of the underlying equations is often problematic. Hence, methods that go beyond validation based on average values or the histogram of model output, are clearly advantageous. In this paper we show that a validation method based on the serial properties of time–space data, and developed in geomorphology, is a useful alternative but is nevertheless still insensitive to certain asymmetric characteristics of the signal. Hence, use of this method for validation may be enhanced by the adoption of an accompanying test for asymmetry in the model output.  相似文献   

Investigation of the Calibration Function of Local Earthquake Magnitude （ ML ） in the Fujian-Taiwan Region     

Lin Xiankan 《中国地震研究》2007,21(2):139-146

The author carefully selected earthquakes with M_L=4.0～5.0, 215 occurring in the crust in the Taiwan region. The attenuation characteristics of maximum displacement recorded by the Fujian digital network have been obtained by multi-analysis as follows:logA=2.07 231.1/Δ (150km≤Δ≤650km) And the corresponding expression of calibration function is, R(Δ)=3.45-231.1(1/Δ-0.01) (150km≤Δ≤650km) Then, the author determined the magnitude and its error with the data from the Fujian network using the calibration function brought forward in 1997 and the above formula for 790 earthquakes occurring in the crust in the Taiwan region from September 1997 ～ August 2005. The result indicates that the average error of the network is 0.20 with the former and 0.18 with the latter. The average error is 0.13 with the latter with station correction. Compared with the magnitude determined by Taiwan seismologists, the magnitude value with the former is lower by 0.50 on average and that with the latter is higher by 0.08 on average.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

V. Rakesh  R. Singh  P. K. Pal  P. C. Joshi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1617-1637

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.  相似文献   

Comments on “Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation” by P. Pasquier and D. Marcotte     

Giansilvio Ponzini  Mauro GiudiciChiara Vassena 《Advances in water resources》2007

Pasquier and Marcotte [Pasquier P, Marcotte D. Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation. Adv Wat Res 2006;29:1934–52] propose some modifications to the Comparison Model Method (CMM), in order to apply it to transient 3D ground water flow data for conductivity identification. We present some remarks on that paper to improve the comprehension of the basic features of the CMM and of the real value of the novelties introduced by Pasquier and Marcotte.  相似文献   

中国大陆卫星反演云参数的评估   总被引：29，自引：6，他引：29  

魏丽  钟强 《高原气象》1996,15(2):147-156

该文选取１９８３年７月和１９８４年１月份代表夏季和冬季，利用中国地面气象月报的云量资料以及多年平均的地面观测云气修资料，与中国大陆地区ＩＳＣＣＰ卫星反演的去量和云状资料进行了对比分析。参照大气环流和云天气气候特征，从卫星得到的从云状是比较合理的，但干旱沙漠地区的高云量的估计不足，低云估计偏多。  相似文献   

X－CT与MR在中枢神经系统中的应用比较     

朱事芳  李广峰 《CT理论与应用研究》1996,(3)

本文阐述了ＣＴ与ＭＲ在中枢神经系统中应用的各自特点及不足，二者相辅相成，相互不能替代，Ｘ－ＣＴ便宜，速度快；Ｘ－ＣＴ业已证实其特征及长处，其局限性也已经明确，而ＭＲ在这些方面，尚待继续探讨。在检查组织内小钙化灶方面ＣＴ大于或优于ＭＲ，ＣＴ显示皮质骨比较好，因而在诊断外伤方面优于ＭＲ。ＭＲ不能显示急性蛛网膜下腔内出血，因而在大多数急症方面ＣＴ优于ＭＲ。在显示血脑屏障的破坏方面，增强ＣＴ扫描优于ＭＲＩ，这种情况只有在ＭＲ静脉注射造影剂得到广泛应用后才可能得以改善  相似文献   

414矿床和栗木矿田的对比特征研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

林德松 《矿产与地质》1993,7(4):262-266

通过414矿和栗木矿的含矿岩体及矿床特征的对比性研究表明;含矿花岗岩浆演化的相似性导致矿床特征的相似性;岩浆成分的差异与所处的地质、构造环境的不同是产生矿床之间差异的主要因素.  相似文献   

On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods     

Huth  Radan  Mládek  Richard  Metelka  Ladislav  Sedlák  Pavel  Huthová  Zuzana  Kliegrová  Stanislava  Kyselý  Jan  Pokorná  Lucie  Halenka  Tomáš  Janoušek  Martin 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2003,47(4):863-873

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.  相似文献   

Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation     

Philippe Pasquier  Denis Marcotte 《Advances in water resources》2006,29(12):1934-1952

A calibration method to solve the groundwater inverse problem under steady- and transient-state conditions is presented. The method compares kriged and numerical head field gradients to modify hydraulic conductivity without the use of non-linear optimization techniques. The process is repeated iteratively until a close match with piezometric data is reached. The approach includes a damping factor to avoid divergence and oscillation of the solution in areas of low hydraulic gradient and a weighting factor to account for temporal head variation in transient simulations. The efficiency of the method in terms of computing time and calibration results is demonstrated with a synthetic field. It is shown that the proposed method provides parameter fields that reproduce both hydraulic conductivity and piezometric data in few forward model solutions. Stochastic numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the method to the damping function and to the head field estimation errors.  相似文献   

Static and dynamic response of massive caisson foundations with soil and interface nonlinearities—validation and results     

Nikos Gerolymos  George Gazetas   《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2006,26(5):377-394

The static, cyclic, and dynamic response of a massive caisson foundation embedded in nonlinear layered or inhomogeneous soil and loaded at its top is investigated. The caisson is supported against horizontal displacement and rotation by four types of inelastic springs and dashpots, described with the BWGG model that was developed in the preceding companion paper [Gerolymos N, Gazetas G. Development of winkler model for static and dynamic response of caisson foundations with soil and interface nonlinearities. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, submitted companion paper]. The prediction of the model is satisfactorily compared with results from 3D-finite element analysis. Some experimental corroboration of the method is provided with the help of a 1/3-scale lateral load test that had been conducted in the field by EPRI. An illustrative example of a caisson embedded in linearly-inhomogeneous clay and subjected to static and dynamic loading is analysed. Characteristic results are presented highlighting the role of soil inelasticity and its interplay with the two dominant interface nonlinearities: separation (gapping) of the caisson shaft from the surrounding soil, and uplifting of the base from the underlying soil.  相似文献