Modelling surface runoff to evaluate the effects of wildfires in multiple semi‐arid,shrubland‐dominated catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Elias Moussoulis  Giorgos Mallinis  Nikos Koutsias  Ierotheos Zacharias 《水文研究》2015,29(20):4427-4441

Wildfires change the infiltration properties of soil, reduce the amount of interception and result in increased runoff. A wildfire at Northeast Attica, Central Greece, in August 2009, destroyed approximately one third of a study area consisting of a mixture of shrublands, pastures and pines. The present study simultaneously models multiple semi‐arid, shrubland‐dominated Mediterranean catchments and assesses the hydrological response (mean annual and monthly runoff and runoff coefficients) during the first few years following wildfires. A physically based, hydrological model (MIKE SHE) was chosen. Calibration and validation results of mean monthly discharge presented very good agreement with the observed data for the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire period for two subcatchments (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient of 79.7%). The model was then used to assess the pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire runoff responses for each of seven catchments in the study area. Mean annual surface runoff increased for the first year and after the second year following the wildfires increased by 112% and 166%, respectively. These values are within the range observed in similar cases of monitored sites. This modelling approach may provide a way of prioritizing catchment selection with respect to post‐fire remediation activities. Additionally, this modelling assessment methodology would be valuable to other semi‐arid areas because it provides an important means for comprehensively assessing post‐wildfire response over large regions and therefore attempts to address some of the scaled issues in the specific literature field of research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

High connectivity and directional gene flow in European Atlantic and Mediterranean populations of Ciona intestinalis sp. A          下载免费PDF全文

Ornella Affinito  Nikos Andreakis  Luigi Caputi  Rita Marino  Raimondo Pannone  Paolo Sordino  Gabriele Procaccini 《Marine Ecology》2015,36(4):1230-1243

Understanding the factors that cause population divergence has long been of interest to marine biologists in their attempts to interpret the effect of human‐mediated vectors. Broadcast‐spawning species with limited dispersal capability are excellent candidates to measure the present‐day patterns of genetic diversity. The tunicate Ciona intestinalis (Ascidiacea) is comprised of a complex of morphologically cryptic species that form vigorous aggregates in eutrophic habitats (harbors, gulfs and lagoons) where they can compete with the epibenthic community and cause biofouling problems. This study investigated biogeographic variability and migration patterns of C. intestinalis sp. A along Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts using microsatellite markers. Data presented here on 371 specimens collected from 17 populations reveal high genetic polymorphism, but with a deficit of heterozygote deficiency. Absence of evidence for isolation by distance suggests that the genetic patterns do not reflect the geographic distribution of sampled populations. Substantial gene flow and artificial potential for dispersal boost high levels of within‐population genetic variability and prevent genetic differentiation within and between seas. A predominant eastward migration pattern was revealed by the data set, with very limited opportunity for C. intestinalis sp. A to travel westward. This directional movement indicates that other properties (e.g. habitat quality, genetic traits, mating system, life cycle) may cause adaptive divergence at a large biogeographic scale.  相似文献   

Sedimentary Deposits from the 17 July 2006 Western Java Tsunami,Indonesia: Use of Grain Size Analyses to Assess Tsunami Flow Depth,Speed, and Traction Carpet Characteristics     

Andrew Moore  James Goff  Brian G. McAdoo  Hermann M. Fritz  Aditya Gusman  Nikos Kalligeris  Kenia Kalsum  Arif Susanto  Debora Suteja  Costas E. Synolakis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(11):1951-1961

The 2006 western Java tsunami deposited a discontinuous sheet of sand up to 20 cm thick, flooded coastal southern Java to a depth of at least 8 m and inundated up to 1 km inland. In most places the primarily heavy mineral sand sheet is normally graded, and in some it contains complex internal stratigraphy. Structures within the sand sheet probably record the passage of up to two individual waves, a point noted in eyewitness accounts. We studied the 2006 tsunami deposits in detail along a flow parallel transect about 750 m long, 15 km east of Cilacap. The tsunami deposit first becomes discernable from the underlying sediment 70 m from the shoreline. From 75 to 300 m inland the deposit has been laid down in rice paddies, and maintains a thickness of 10–20 cm. Landward of 300 m the deposit thins dramatically, reaching 1 mm by 450 m inland. From 450 m to the edge of deposition (around 700 m inland) the deposit remains <1 mm thick. Deposition generally attended inundation—along the transect, the tsunami deposited sand to within about 40 m of the inundation limit. The thicker part of the deposit contains primarily sand indistinguishable from that found on the beach 3 weeks after the event, but after about 450 m (and roughly coinciding with the decrease in thickness) the tsunami sediment shifts to become more like the underlying paddy soil than the beach sand. Grain sizes within the deposit tend to fine upward and landward, although overall upward fining takes place in two discrete pulses, with an initial section of inverse grading followed by a section of normal grading. The two inversely graded sections are also density graded, with denser grains at the base, and less dense grains at the top. The two normally graded sections show no trends in density. The inversely graded sections show high density sediment to the base and become less dense upward and represents traction carpet flows at the base of the tsunami. These are suggestive of high shear rates in the flow. Because of the grain sorting in the traction carpet, the landward-fining trends usually seen in tsunami deposits are masked, although lateral changes of mean sediment grain size along the transect do show overall landward fining, with more variation as the deposit tapers off. The deposit is also thicker in the more seaward portions than would be produced by tsunamis lacking traction carpets.  相似文献   

Seismic response of single-column bent on pile: evidence of beneficial role of pile and soil inelasticity   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Nikos Gerolymos  V. Drosos  G. Gazetas 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(2):547-573

While seismic codes do not allow plastic deformation of piles, the Kobe earthquake has shown that limited structural yielding and cracking of piles may not be always detrimental. As a first attempt to investigate the consequences of pile yielding in the response of a pile-column supported bridge structure, this paper explores the soil–pile-bridge pier interaction to seismic loading, with emphasis on structural nonlinearity. The pile–soil interaction is modeled through distributed nonlinear Winkler-type springs and dashpots. Numerical analysis is performed with a constitutive model (Gerolymos and Gazetas 2005a, Soils Found 45(3):147–159, Gerolymos and Gazetas 2005b, Soils Found 45(4):119–132, Gerolymos and Gazetas 2006a, Soil Dyn Earthq Eng 26(5):363–376) materialized in the OpenSees finite element code (Mazzoni et al. 2005, OpenSees command language manual, p 375) which can simulate: the nonlinear behaviour of both pile and soil; the possible separation and gapping between pile and soil; radiation damping; loss of stiffness and strength in pile and soil. The model is applied to the analysis of pile-column supported bridge structures, focusing on the influence of soil compliance, intensity of seismic excitation, pile diameter, above-ground height of the pile, and above or below ground development of plastic hinge, on key performance measures of the pier as is: the displacement (global) and curvature (local) ductility demands and the maximum drift ratio. It is shown that kinematic expressions for performance measure parameters may lead to erroneous results when soil-structure interaction is considered.  相似文献   

Scale-dependent correlations between soil heavy metals and As around four coal-fired power plants of northern Greece     

Nikos Nanos  Theodoros Grigoratos  José Antonio Rodríguez Martín  Constantini Samara 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(6):1531-1543

We analyse the concentration of five trace elements (As, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the topsoil of the Kozani-Ptolemais basin where four coal-fired power plants run to provide almost 47.8 % of electricity requirements in Greece. We assume that if the power plants have altered the spatial (co)variation of the analysed elements through their toxic by-products, their effect would be observable only on a small spatial scale, since deposition of airborne pollutants is more evident if it is near the emission source. We used Factorial Cokriging to estimate the small-scale correlations among soil elements and to compare them to large spatial-scale correlations. Soil samples were collected from 92 sites. Given the low concentrations in soil heavy metals and As, we observed no serious soil contamination risk. We estimated correlations among the analysed elements on two spatial scales. On the larger scale, Ni and As exhibited higher correlation and received higher weights for the first regionalized factor, contrary to Cu, Pb and Zn which weighted more for the second regionalized factor. On the small spatial scale As associated with neither Ni nor other heavy metals. We conclude that soil arsenic has been altered by enrichment caused by some power plants through fly ash deposition and/or disposal. However, enrichment of soil elements was detectable only on the smaller spatial scale because anthropogenic inputs in soil through airborne emissions and subsequent deposition are evident only in the vicinity of the emission source.  相似文献   

An approach for estimating the largest probable tsunami from far-field subduction zone earthquakes     

Nikos Kalligeris  Luis Montoya  Aykut Ayca  Patrick Lynett 《Natural Hazards》2017,89(1):233-253

Following the recent unexpected earthquake events of 2004 and 2011, it can be cautiously extrapolated that all major subduction zones bearing the capacity to produce mega-earthquake events will eventually do so given enough time, irrespective of the lack of such in the relatively short historical record. This notion has led to an effort of assigning maximum earthquake magnitudes to all major subduction zones, either based on geological constraints or based on size–frequency relations, or a combination of both. In this study, we utilize the proposed maximum magnitudes to assess tsunami hazard in Central California in the very long return periods. We also assessed tsunami hazard following an alternative methodology to calculate maximum magnitudes, which uses scaling relations for subduction zone earthquakes and maximum fault rupture scenarios found in literature. A sensitivity analysis is performed for Central California that is applicable to any coastal site in the Pacific Rim and can readily provide a strong indication for which subduction zones beam the most energy toward a study area. The maximum earthquake scenarios are then narrowed down to a few candidates, for which the initial conditions are examined in more detail. The chosen worst-case scenarios for Central California stem from the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone that beams more energy and generates the biggest amplitude waves toward the study area. The largest tsunami scenario produces maximum free surface elevations of 15 m and run-up heights greater than 20 m.  相似文献   

Behaviour of deep immersed tunnel under combined normal fault rupture deformation and subsequent seismic shaking   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ioannis Anastasopoulos  Nikos Gerolymos  Vasileios Drosos  Takis Georgarakos  Rallis Kourkoulis  George Gazetas 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2008,6(2):213-239

Immersed tunnels are particularly sensitive to tensile and compressive deformations such as those imposed by a normal seismogenic fault rupturing underneath, and those generated by the dynamic response due to seismic waves. The paper investigates the response of a future 70 m deep immersed tunnel to the consecutive action of a major normal fault rupturing in an earthquake occurring in the basement rock underneath the tunnel, and a subsequent strong excitation from a different large-magnitude seismic event that may occur years later. Non-linear finite elements model the quasi-static fault rupture propagation through the thick soil deposit overlying the bedrock and the ensuing interaction of the rupture with the immersed tunnel. It is shown that despite imposed bedrock offset of 2 m, net tension or excessive compression between tunnel segments could be avoided with a suitable design of the joint gaskets. Then, the already deformed (“injured”) structure is subjected to strong asynchronous seismic shaking. The thick-walled tunnel is modelled as a 3-D massive flexural beam connected to the soil through properly-calibrated nonlinear interaction springs and dashpots, the supports of which are subjected to the free-field acceleration time histories. The latter, obtained with 1-D wave propagation analysis, are then modified to account for wave passage effects. The joints between tunnel segments are modeled with special non-linear hyper-elastic elements, properly accounting for their 7-bar longitudinal hydrostatic pre-stressing. Sliding is captured with special gap elements. The effect of segment length and joint properties is explored parametrically. A fascinating conclusion emerges in all analysed cases for the joints between segments that were differentially deformed after the quasi-static fault rupture: upon subsequent very strong seismic shaking, overstressed joints de-compress and understressed joints re-compress—a “healing” process that leads to a more uniform deformation profile along the tunnel. This is particularly beneficial for the precariously de-compressed joint gaskets. Hence, the safety of the immersed tunnel improves with “subsequent” strong seismic shaking!  相似文献   

Probabilistic fragility analysis： A tool for assessing design rules of RC buildings   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Nikos D Lagaros 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2008,7(1):45-56

  相似文献   

Simplified approach for design of raft foundations against fault rupture. Part Ⅱ： soil-structure interaction     

I. Anastasopoulos  ;N. Gerolymos  ;G. Gazetas  ;M. F. Bransby 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2008,7(2):165-179

This is the second paper of two, which describe the results of an integrated research effort to develop a four-step simplified approach for design of raft foundations against dip-slip （normal and thrust） fault rupture. The first two steps dealing with fault rupture propagation in the free-field were presented in the companion paper. This paper develops an approximate analytical method to analyze soil-foundation-structure interaction （SFSI）, involving two additional phenomena： （i） fault rupture diversion （Step 3）; and （ii） modification of the vertical displacement profile （Step 4）. For the first phenomenon （Step 3）, an approximate energy-based approach is developed to estimate the diversion of a fault rupture due to presence of a raft foundation. The normalized critical load for complete diversion is shown to be a function of soil strength, coefficient of earth pressure at rest, bedrock depth, and the horizontal position of the foundation relative to the outcropping fault rupture. For the second phenomenon （Step 4）, a heuristic approach is proposed, which ＂scans＂ through possible equilibrium positions to detect the one that best satisfies force and moment equilibrium. Thus, we account for the strong geometric nonlinearities that govern this interaction, such as uplifting and second order （P-△） effects. Comparisons with centrifuge-validated finite element analyses demonstrate the efficacy of the method. Its simplicity makes possible its utilization for preliminary design.  相似文献   

Simplified approach for design of raft foundations against fault rupture. Part Ⅰ: free-field     

I. Anastasopoulos  N. Gerolymos  G. Gazetas  M. F. Bransby 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2008,7(2)

Over the past few decades, earthquake engineering research mainly focused on the effects of strong seismicshaking. After the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey and Taiwan, and thanks to numerous cases where fault rupture causedsubstantial damage to structures, the importance of faulting-induced deformation has re-emerged. This paper, along withits companion (Part Ⅱ), exploits parametric results of finite element analyses and centrifuge model testing in developing afour-step semi-analytical approach for analysis of dip-slip (normal and thrust) fault rupture propagation through sand, itsemergence on the ground surface, and its interaction with raft foundations. The present paper (Part Ⅰ) focuses on the effectsof faulting in the absence of a structure (i.e., in the free-field). The semi-analytical approach comprises two-steps: the firstdeals with the rupture path and the estimation of the location of fault outcropping, and the second with the tectonically-induced displacement profile at the ground surface. In both cases, simple mechanical analogues are used to derive simplifiedsemi-analytical expressions. Centrifuge model test data, in combination with parametric results from nonlinear finite elementanalyses, are utilized for model calibration. The derived semi-analytical expressions are shown to compare reasonably wellwith more rigorous experimental and theoretical data, thus providing a useful tool for a first estimation of near-fault seismichazard.  相似文献