Earthquake catalogues and modelling strategies. A new testing procedure for the comparison between competing models     

G. Grandori  E. Guagenti  L. Petrini 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(3):259-269

In this paper we consider the procedures that, on the basis of an earthquake catalogue, yield the magnitude distribution function F _M (F _M generators). In particular, our attention is focused on the F _M generators that are currently used in the frame of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a site. From an engineering point of view, the behaviour of F _M in the range of strong earthquakes is of crucial importance. On the other hand, in general, the statistical validation of F _M in that range is not feasible because of an insufficient number of strong earthquakes in available catalogues.Our investigation is limited to the problem of the comparison between competing F _M generators. We show that a simple empirical F _M generator (called the CFP generator) can be more reliable than generators based on mathematical models. The numerical experiments that support this statement regards two test-sites and two mathematical models of magnitude distribution, namely the truncated-exponential and the characteristic-type models.The main conclusion is the suggestion of a test (called the CFP-test) that can be summarized as follows. Let X be a site for which, with current criteria, a specific F _M ^X generator based on a mathematical model has been selected. At this point, following the comparison approach described in the paper, the F _M ^X generator is compared with the empirical CFP generator. It can happen (actually it happens in many of our numerical experiments) that this test indicates the CFP generator as more reliable than the selected F _M ^X generator.  相似文献   

闽台地区近震震级ML量规函数研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

林仙坎 《中国地震》2006,22(3):287-293

作者精心地挑选了发生在台湾地区的ML=4.0~5.0壳内地震215个,用福建台网记录到的这些地震的最大地动位移资料,利用多元回归分析方法,拟合出最大地动位移的衰减特征为logA=2.07 231.1/Δ(150km≤Δ≤650km)与之相应的量规函数的表达式为R(Δ)=3.45-231.1(1/Δ-0.01)(150km≤Δ≤650km)对于1999年9月~2005年8月发生在台湾地区地壳内的790个地震,分别利用相关部门在1997年制定的量规函数和上式所示量规函数,求出福建台网测定的平均震级及均方差。结果表明,据前者所得的平均均方差为0.20,而后者为0.18。如果在测定震级时,考虑到台基修正值,则后者为0.13;把测定的结果与台湾相关部门的测定结果进行比较,前者平均低了0.50左右,而后者高了0.08左右。  相似文献   

A microscale three-dimensional urban energy balance model for studying surface temperatures   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

E. Scott Krayenhoff  James A. Voogt 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,123(3):433-461

A microscale three-dimensional (3-D) urban energy balance model, Temperatures of Urban Facets in 3-D (TUF-3D), is developed to predict urban surface temperatures for a variety of surface geometries and properties, weather conditions, and solar angles. The surface is composed of plane-parallel facets: roofs, walls, and streets, which are further sub-divided into identical square patches, resulting in a 3-D raster-type model geometry. The model code is structured into radiation, conduction and convection sub-models. The radiation sub-model uses the radiosity approach and accounts for multiple reflections and shading of direct solar radiation. Conduction is solved by finite differencing of the heat conduction equation, and convection is modelled by empirically relating patch heat transfer coefficients to the momentum forcing and the building morphology. The radiation and conduction sub-models are tested individually against measurements, and the complete model is tested against full-scale urban surface temperature and energy balance observations. Modelled surface temperatures perform well at both the facet-average and the sub-facet scales given the precision of the observations and the uncertainties in the model inputs. The model has several potential applications, such as the calculation of radiative loads, and the investigation of effective thermal anisotropy (when combined with a sensor-view model).  相似文献   

利用GCV优化的正则化方法对硬X射线望远镜图象重建研究     

孟莉  岩间尚文 《CT理论与应用研究》1998,7(3):7-11

图象重建是一个求逆过程具有不适定性。本文介绍的是一种从少数投影数据进行图象重建的线性代数法－Ｐｈｉｌｌｉｐｓ－Ｔｉｋｈｏｎｏｖ正则化方法,同时选择优化工具ＧＣＶ确定最优的正则参数。为验证该方法,我们对日本Ｙｏｈｋｏｈ卫星上塔载的硬Ｘ射线望远镜（ＨＸＴ）拍摄的太阳图象进行重建。  相似文献   

位移时空综合分析法及其在边坡工程中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

尚彦军  唐纯华 《工程地质学报》1998,6(3):238-243

以往对监测位移数据分析方法主要是位移-时间关系分析。但监测数据包含了大量对工程设计和施工都很有用的信息,其中不乏位移-空间方面的信息;另一方面,从工程设计和施工角度看,除需要位移-时间信息外,还需要位移-空间信息。位移时空综合分析法的提出旨在综合位移-时间和位移-空间等两方面的信息,为工程设计和施工服务。该方法依表现形式不同又分为竖线法和曲面法两种。本文将通过五强溪船闸边坡工程实例,来进一步说明位移时空综合分析法的原理及其应用。  相似文献   

湖泊水位资料与模型模拟恢复的6000年前全球湿润状况的对比研究     

秦伯强  于革  SandyPHarison 《气象学报》1998,56(3):272-283

本项研究是ＰＭＩＰ（ＰａｌａｅｏｃｌｉｍａｔｅＭｏｄｅｌｉｎｇＩｎｔｅｒｃｏｍｐａｒｉｓｏｎＰｒｏｊｅｃｔ）国际合作项目中有关模型模拟与观测资料对比的一部分。模型试验对象是６０００ｙｒ．ＢＰ的全球湿润状况。模拟试验以检测太阳辐射变化对全球大尺度气候系统的影响为主要目的。观测资料是利用地质证据恢复的古湖泊水位变化,实际上是某一地区的有效降水（降水减蒸发）的变化。通过两者的比较发现,所有模拟试验均能重现６０００ｙｒ．ＢＰ在亚洲南部与非洲北部的湿润环境,从而证实了因太阳辐射变化导致的亚洲与非洲季风的增强。但模拟的季风增强无论是强度还是范围均小于地质记录。原因很可能是模拟试验中下垫面特征用“现代”的来处理。模拟试验对北半球夏季辐射增加造成的西风带北移及由此引起的中纬度地区的气候变化不够成功。绝大多数模拟对受洋流与海温影响较大的地区是失败的。主要原因可能是所有ＰＭＩＰ中的模拟试验都未考虑海洋的作用。  相似文献   

青藏高原多,少雪年后期西北干旱区降水的对比分析   总被引：17，自引：5，他引：12  

吴统文  李培基 《高原气象》1998,17(4):364-372

利用１９５７－１９９０年高原地区的雪深,地面气温,地温以及西北干旱区部分站强降水量资料等,进行了高原地区多,少雪年积雪特下,地震热状况以及西北干旱区的期降水量的对比分析和相关分析。  相似文献   

Development in modeling cyclic loading of sands based on kinematic hardening     

Mohammad Maleki  Bernard Cambou  Philppe Dubujet 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2009,33(14):1641-1658

In this paper, there is presented an elastoplastic constitutive model to predict sandy soils behavior under monotonic and cyclic loadings. This model is based on an existing model (Cambou‐Jafari‐Sidoroff) that takes into account deviatoric and isotropic mechanisms of plasticity. The flow rule used in the deviatoric mechanism is non‐associated and a mixed hardening law controls the evolution of the yield surface. In this research the critical state surface and history surface, which separates the virgin and cyclic states in stress space, are defined. Kinematic hardening modulus and stress–dilatancy law for monotonic and cyclic loadings are effectively modified. With taking hardening modulus as a function of deviatoric and volumetric plastic strain and with defining the history surface and stress reversal, the model has the ability to predict the sandy soils' behavior. All of the model parameters have clear physical meanings and can be determined from usual laboratory tests. In order to validate the model, the results of homogeneous tests on Hostun and Toyoura sands are used. The results of validation show a good capability of the proposed model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessment of SARAL/AltiKa Wave Height Measurements Relative to Buoy,Jason-2, and Cryosat-2 Data     

Hector Hito Sepulveda  Fabrice Ardhuin 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):449-465

SARAL/AltiKa GDR-T are analyzed to assess the quality of the significant wave height (SWH) measurements. SARAL along-track SWH plots reveal cases of erroneous data, more or less isolated, not detected by the quality flags. The anomalies are often correlated with strong attenuation of the Ka-band backscatter coefficient, sensitive to clouds and rain. A quality test based on the 1 Hz standard deviation is proposed to detect such anomalies. From buoy comparison, it is shown that SARAL SWH is more accurate than Jason-2, particularly at low SWH, and globally does not require any correction. Results are better with open ocean than with coastal buoys. The scatter and the number of outliers are much larger for coastal buoys. SARAL is then compared with Jason-2 and Cryosat-2. The altimeter data are extracted from the global altimeter SWH Ifremer data base, including specific corrections to calibrate the various altimeters. The comparison confirms the high quality of SARAL SWH. The 1 Hz standard deviation is much less than for Jason-2 and Cryosat-2, particularly at low SWH. Furthermore, results show that the corrections applied to Jason-2 and to Cryosat-2, in the data base, are efficient, improving the global agreement between the three altimeters.  相似文献   

Comparison of Near Coastal Significant Wave Height Measurements from SARAL/AltiKa with Wave Rider Buoys in the Indian Region     

K. Hareef Baba Shaeb  Arur Anand  A.K. Joshi  Satyendra M. Bhandari 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):422-436

Significant Wave Height (SWH) measurement data from the AltiKa Radar Altimeter (RA) for the first 13 cycles of satellite coverage are compared with the SWH from Wave Rider Buoys (WRB) located at nine stations along the Indian coast to assess the performance of the altimeter over the coastal region. AltiKa SWH observations within a 30-minute interval and 50 km distance from WRBs are found to be over estimated by 6%, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is 0.36 m, the Scatter Index (SI) is 26%, and the correlation coefficient (r) is 0.91. Relaxing the distance criteria by 50 km leads to increase in RMSE and deterioration of r to 0.89. There is a marked difference in the statistics on the comparison pairs pooled separately for the buoys near west and east coasts, with the latter showing RMSE error 26% more than the former. The method of Cressman weights adopted to correct for the errors arising out of the temporal and spatial differences in altimeter and buoy data comparison pairs resulted in reduction of RMSE by 5% and 25%, respectively, for the 30-minute and 50 km criteria and 4% and 56% for the 30-minute and 100 km criteria.  相似文献