Risk analysis of landslides – A case study     

G. L. Sivakumar Babu  M. D. Mukesh 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2003,21(2):113-127

The effects of uncertainty due to the variability of soil parameters on the risk of landsliding in the Himalayan region are investigated using a random field model combined with slope stability analyses. Effects of spatial variability both in horizontal and vertical directions, number of test samples, variations in piezometric level and the influence of earthquake on the reliability of a typical slope in a slide area are investigated. The results show that the reliability of slopes in the slide area is significantly affected by the coefficients of variation of soil parameters, spatial variations of soil parameters, number of test samples and piezometric variations. The results also show that the assumption of isotropic variations to assess slope reliability isconservative. The results of the study are useful in providing guidelines and pointing to remedial measures in the form of sub-surface drainage to improve slope reliability in the area.  相似文献   

Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Fabbri  Andrea G.  Chung  Chang-Jo F.  Cendrero  Antonio  Remondo  Juan 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):487-503

This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.  相似文献   

Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment   总被引：31，自引：6，他引：31  

van Westen  C. J.  Rengers  N.  Soeters  R. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):399-419

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique.  相似文献   

地质灾害勘查的地球物理方法及其发展趋势   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

郭建强  朱庆俊 《地球学报》2003,24(5):483-486

地质灾害的勘查是地质灾害评估、灾害治理方案设计、防治工程实施的重要保证，其中物探技术可以发挥重要作用。近年来，物探勘探技术在此方面的实验研究工作发展迅速，本文对这种新的应用技术进行了简要的综述，以利于地质灾害勘查工作的进一步发展。  相似文献   

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain   总被引：9，自引：3，他引：9  

Remondo  Juan  González  Alberto  De Terán  José Ramón Díaz  Cendrero  Antonio  Fabbri  Andrea  Chung  Chang-Jo F. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):437-449

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.  相似文献   

线性综合模型用于崩滑体变形预报的研究     

徐进军 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1997,(4)

综合分析和比较了自回归模型和回归模型的特点，提出了采用线性综合模型来预报崩滑体变形的思想，以弥补自回归模型或回归模型预报的不足。实测资料的处理结果表明，综合线性模型具有特别的适用性。  相似文献   

斜坡失稳时间的协同预测模型     

黄润秋  许强 《山地学报》1997,(1)

斜坡岩体由小变形到大变形乃至滑坡的发生，实质上是由组成斜坡的各子系统协同作用的结果．将协同学引入斜坡的稳定性预测评价中，并提出了一种新的斜坡失稳时间预测模型──协同预测模型．经实例检验，该模型预测精度较高，可用于滑坡的短期或临滑预报．  相似文献   

松潘—甘孜造山带中丹巴地区变质岩的流体包裹体研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

钟宏  徐士进 《矿物学报》1997,17(2):135-141

对丹巴地区动热变质岩石英中的流体包裹体研究表明，第一类型包裹体为高密度CO2包裹体，与深层滑脱作用密切相关，其温度、压力可代表变质峰期的温压条件。第二类型包裹体为CO2－H2O包裹体，H2O含量增加，与变质峰期后的抬升作用有关。第三类型包裹体为NaCl－H2O包裹体，以H2O为主，与抬升作用引起的退变质作用有关。其形成温度依次降低，说明它们是在变质作用的不同阶段捕获的。  相似文献   

镇江地区降雨导致滑坡规律统计分析     

燕晓莹  阎长虹  郜泽郑 《高校地质学报》1997,25(5):772

江苏镇江地区地属丘陵地带，近年来由于气候变化，调查资料显示镇江地区短时强降雨或持续时间较长的降雨经常 诱发大量浅层滑坡，降雨是区内滑坡主要影响因素，造成了较大的经济损失。文章通过对镇江地区300多个山体边坡进行 详细现场环境地质调查，结合收集气象资料，对该地区的滑坡与降雨相关参数的关系进行统计分析，得到了降雨量与降雨 持续时间对滑坡数量的变化关系。确定了镇江地区降雨阈值I-D 曲线，并将分析结果与其他地区进行了对比分析，研究成 果可为镇江地区滑坡治理和预警预报提供依据。  相似文献   

滑坡定量预测的非线性理论方法   总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19  

易顺民  晏同珍 《地学前缘》1996,3(1):77-85

滑坡时空预测是当前滑坡研究中的难题，特别是滑坡时间预测工作，其进展缓慢。本文基于非线性科学理论，分析了滑坡活动的分形特征及时间分形预测方法，研究了滑坡空间预测的人工神经网络特征，系统介绍了滑坡时间预测的非线性动力学理论。在此基础上，讨论了滑坡定量预测的发展趋势。  相似文献