Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice.  相似文献   

卡尔曼滤波器在卫星遥感影像大地校正中的应用     

梁泽环 《遥感学报》1990,(4)

在卫星遥感图像的预处理中,通过系统校正可以基本上消除影像内部的变形误差。然而,整幅影像的大地定位误差仍然是很大的,甚至几百米至1公里的数量级。本文介绍利用少量的地面控制点,采用递归算法而不是批处理算法,大大地提高大地定位精度。在单幅影像处理中,可以重新对卫星的轨道参数与姿态参数进行估值,从而提高影像的大地定位精度。在一条轨道上连续的多幅影像中,可以预报下一幅影像的大地位置,从而对那些不具有地面控制点的影像的大地校正中,实现外推计算。文中介绍并推导了卡尔曼滤波器方程中的转移矩阵和测量矩阵的系数,并推荐用数值回归的办法求得其数值解。文中最后介绍模拟试验及算法计算结果,并讨论其优缺点。  相似文献   

The Lateral Trigger Probability function for the Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Ray showers detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory     

《Astroparticle Physics》2011,35(5):266-276

In this paper we introduce the concept of Lateral Trigger Probability (LTP) function, i.e., the probability for an Extensive Air Shower (EAS) to trigger an individual detector of a ground based array as a function of distance to the shower axis, taking into account energy, mass and direction of the primary cosmic ray. We apply this concept to the surface array of the Pierre Auger Observatory consisting of a 1.5 km spaced grid of about 1600 water Cherenkov stations. Using Monte Carlo simulations of ultra-high energy showers the LTP functions are derived for energies in the range between 10¹⁷ and 10¹⁹ eV and zenith angles up to 65°. A parametrization combining a step function with an exponential is found to reproduce them very well in the considered range of energies and zenith angles. The LTP functions can also be obtained from data using events simultaneously observed by the fluorescence and the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory (hybrid events). We validate the Monte Carlo results showing how LTP functions from data are in good agreement with simulations.  相似文献   

多相滤波器组谱分析方法的性能讨论与天文观测应用     

朱凯  甘恒谦  朱岩  金乘进 《天文研究与技术》2011,8(1)

多相滤波器组(PFB)是均匀数字滤波器组的一种高效实现结构,用于信号的均匀子带分解和抽取,对应用多相滤波器组作为功率谱估计器的统计性能与计算量进行分析,与相关图与周期图方法进行比较,并通过仿真及FAST密云模型21cm中性氢谱线观测检验其应用效果。  相似文献   

基于MICAPS 3核心的人影业务平台设计与开发   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

吴林林  刘黎平  徐海军  李爱华 《气象》2013,39(3):383-388

文章主要介绍了基于MICAPS 3.2系统框架的人工影响天气业务平台的设计与开发.首先介绍了MICAPS 3.2的主要功能、模块设计特点以及主要的系统接口情况.其次介绍了人工影响天气的工作流程、工作内容以及主要产品并指出不同类型的数据在该系统中的交互方法.最后,针对人影工作特点设计菜单和界面布局,完成系统开发设计,并展示了开发完成后人影业务主要产品的例子.  相似文献   

Determination of picomolar iron in seawater by double Mg(OH)₂ precipitation isotope dilution high-resolution ICPMS     

Jingfeng Wu   《Marine Chemistry》2007,103(3-4):370-381

A low-blank pre-concentration procedure is described for the analysis of picomolar iron (Fe) in seawater by isotope dilution high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass-spectrometry (HR-ICPMS). The procedure uses a two-step Mg(OH)₂ co-precipitation procedure to extract Fe from a 50 ml seawater sample into a 100 μl 4% nitric acid (HNO₃) solution followed by HR-ICPMS measurement. The high pre-concentration ratio ( 500:1) achieved by the procedure minimizes the Fe blank due to ICPMS instrumental Fe background and results in a detection limit of  2 pM and a precision of  4% at the 50 pM Fe level. The measurement of a low-Fe seawater sample spiked with gravimetric Fe standard shows that the method can clearly distinguish 0.01 nM Fe from 0.02 nM Fe in seawater with high accuracy. The method is demonstrated by the analysis of dissolved Fe in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.  相似文献   

东亚区域能量和水分循环对我国极端气候影响研究的一些初步进展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王会军 《地球科学进展》2010,25(6):563-570

介绍了2009年项目"全球变暖背景下东亚能量和水分循环变异及其对我国极端气候的影响"的主要研究目标和内容,着重叙述了项目实施以来的主要科研进展,包括西北敦煌和临泽区陆气交换加强观测试验、我国极端气候的变化分析和模拟研究以及气候预测新方法和新系统的研制等方面.最后概要介绍了项目未来几年的主要研究工作计划.  相似文献   

多源信息融合在维西-兰坪矿产勘查中的应用     

杨通树  王亚萍  张晓平 《云南地质》2010,29(2):224-227,214

运用遥感图像处理软件ERDAS中的图像增强方法,分析ETM+遥感数据,提取与金属矿化有关的异常信息,将化探异常图像和遥感信息叠加进行相关异常信息与成矿的关系研究,对本区找矿预测具有较好的指导作用。  相似文献   

滇东南老寨湾金矿化探异常查证与找矿方向   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

许翠芳  戴润芹 《云南地质》2010,29(1):25-28

运用化探测量、X萤光分析仪现场检测、地质检查等多种找矿方法,获得含金工业品位的找矿信息;发现具工业价值的金矿体并建立该类矿床找矿模型。  相似文献   

双频激电法在云南禄劝新发铜矿区的应用     

杨剑  王永华  艾斯卡尔  李华 《云南地质》2010,29(4):458-460,455

以禄劝新发铜矿区为例,研究在山区运用双频激电法进行矿产远景调查的效果。结果表明:在交通不便、自然条件差的山区,双频激电法具有轻便、快速等优点。找矿效果理想,与地质、化探结果吻合,为双频激电法研究提供了一个可供参考的实例。  相似文献